« FAQ’s About The Choppy-Table/Short-Leash - Part 1 | Main | Ask the Mad Professor - Part 14 »

FAQ’s About The Choppy-Table/Short-Leash Method - Part 2

As promised, here’s a few more composite questions that I frequently receive about this betting method that was first chronicled in my Dodging Bullets As A Darksider article, and then expanded upon in Part II of that series.

When To Use It and Replicating WinCraps™ Results

"MP, when is the best time to use your C-T/S-L Method? Can I use it all the time as a stand-alone, regardless of what the table-trend is? How dangerous would that be? Can I replicate the same results if I use it on WinCraps?"

The Choppy-Table/Short-Leash Method is best used on choppy or cool-trending tables ONLY!

Any other use of my C-T/S-L is sheer gambling, if not sheer LUNACY.

If you choose to use it on every shooter, then WinCraps will quickly show you that it is one absolutely LOUSY method when applied to every shooter. It is called a “choppy table method” because it is designed to be used specifically ONLY on choppy and cool-trending tables.

As you know, I strongly recommend against the use of this approach unless a sufficient (>$3,000) bankroll is used. That should give you a good idea of how volatile it can be, even under "ideal" choppy and cool-trend conditions. You can make decent money with it, but you have to be sufficiently bankrolled...otherwise it can be DISASTEROUS if you are short-stacked in the money department.

As to replicating profitable results on WinCraps is concerned; I would recommend that you set up the "start-bet" parameters on what YOU think constitutes a choppy or cool table. From there, you can either loosen or tighten the when-to-bet criteria as you fine-tune your definition of when to use it.

The reason it is critical for YOU to determine when a bet should be made is because when you are in the casino, it is YOU making the decision (not a computer), and it is YOUR money that you are using to bet. Doing so tends to sharpen your mental acuity of when this method should or shouldn't be used, as well as helping to hone your overall trend-awareness.

As I've advocated from Day One, it is important for each player to pre-validate ANY of the methods that they use. That way, the savvy player gets a better understanding of not only HOW and WHY a betting-method works or doesn't work, and under what conditions it should or shouldn't be used; but you also get a better understanding of how some methods like this one, can be self-healing, in that players are often able to make comebacks from seemingly large setbacks in fairly quick order (and on a shockingly consistent basis).

The added effort that you put in to validating this method now, before you use it in a casino, pays dividends when you put it to proper use at the real-world tables later on.


Using It AGAINST Precision-Shooters

"MP, I’ve tried your C-T/S-L Method, and I’ve got to admit that it works GREAT, however, when I try it against any skilled shooters even at a mildly-choppy table, I sometimes get blown out of the water, especially on the Come-Out. What gives?"

The one important caveat for this betting-approach is that you DO NOT use it against any "percentage/advantage/precision" shooters. The risk is that they may indeed "get on a tear", and proceed to tear the heart right out of your session-bankroll as a result.

Keep in mind that a good number of skilled dicesetters WANT to get a 7-winner (loser for you) on their Come-Out roll. It’s tough enough to win with any betting-method, even when applied only at the prescribed times under the prescribed conditions…so WHY make it even harder on yourself by betting against skilled Precision-Shooters even if the table-trend looks dismal. If you aren’t going to bet with a player who has a demonstrated skill; then at least be careful when applying it against skilled shooters. Your money may be much safer if you keep it on the sidelines during at least the first part of their roll.


How It Makes a “Comeback”? 

"I have several questions regarding the C/T/S/L Method that I don't think you discussed in your original Dodging Bullets articles or in your FAQ - Part I   piece.

       You said that it takes an average of 22 shooters to recover from the $285 loss. Based on your experience, over how many sessions or hours would that average out?

       You said that a player needs to experience losing several times, and experience the ability of this method to make a comeback. So, how does it make that comeback?

       When you are using the method because you deem the table to be choppy to cool, what are your triggers to STOP using it?

       If I am going to use this method on a $1 table, or convert a $5 or $10 table into a $1 table by starting out with an $11-DP and a $10-PL, how can I estimate what the expected hourly rate of return would be? I know at a $5 table you estimate the hourly win rate to be about $40. If I effectively turn any table into a $1 table (using the DP/PL offset), what will I earn? "


I can confirm that it takes an average of 22 shooters to recover from the $285 loss. That’s because the average C-T/S-L series generates about $13.81 per round.

So, how many sessions or hours would that average out to?

Well, it really all depends on how choppy the tables are, and that determines how many times you get to start a C-T/S-L series of bets.

In looking back over my data-base for the past two years, it looks like it takes ~7 hours of “recapture time” if you set the “when-to-bet” bar quite high. That is, if you are ULTRA-selective as to making SURE that the table is cool-trending or ultra-choppy; then it can take up to seven hours to recoup a $285 loss. On the other hand, you have to realize that the tables are generally choppy or cool-trending AT LEAST 60% of the time. Using that criteria; the recapture time (the time it takes to recoup your losses) can take as little as two hours. It really comes down to how often the table-trend indicates a reasonable betting-opportunity to apply this method.

It’s important that you give the method sufficient time to heal itself by recapturing those losses, and that you DON’T lower the threshold at which you decide to start betting on what you falsely convince yourself is now a choppy or cool-trending table.

Don’t let your impatience lead you into temptation, or persuade you that the wrong time MIGHT possibly be the right time.

You have to be mindful that this is a method I use if I want to kill time while waiting for the dice to cycle back around to me. It IS a GRIND method that lets you stay at the table for hours upon hours, and even days upon days at a time, however, that is NOT where it is most effective. Rather, it is most useful when combined with your own skillful shooting, and as a way to keep some “casino required” bets in action during your non-shooting times. It makes money on its own, but the impatient use of it on unqualified, non-choppy and non-cool-trending tables, is often cause for a misuse downfall.

The “comeback” is based on the profit that this method normally generates on a shooter-to-shooter choppy-table situation. When the table is choppy, and you are using this method, you’ll be grinding out about $13 per series. THAT is how it makes its comeback from a $285 session-loss, and how it steadily builds up profits on a session-to-session-to-session basis. HOPEFULLY, you are able to rack enough (offsetting-revenue-in-preparation-for-a-loss) profit BEFORE experiencing a $285 session loss-limit, but obviously that isn’t always the case.

As far as the “triggers” of when to STOP using it, well; when the table starts to turn warm, that is DEFINITELY the time to stop. How do you know this? Ah, the answer lies in HOW DEEP you are consistently going into your bet-progression before the shooter 7’s-Out.

If two or three or four shooters in a row are taking you to the third or fourth or fifth progression; then the table is DEFINITELY warming up because they are either making a lot of C-O winners and/or PL-Points. That is the indicator that the trend is turning from "C-T/S-L positive" to "C-T/S-L neutral" or even "negative". If that is the case, then you should be transitioning to the “DO” side of the equation (although you shouldn't be TOO anxious with your bets on ANY random-rollers). In fact, if those three or four shooters are making three, or four or five PL-winners each, then it’s high time you bail on the C-T/S-L because the table trend is no longer cool or choppy, it’s getting downright warm in here.

As to your final question: on a $1 (nominal value) table, the earn-rate for the C-T/S-L Method is ~$8/hour.




Staging a Comeback

"Once again, thanks MP for all the ammo you gave me concerning Dodging Bullets. You mentioned in your FAQ's for the C-T/S-L - Part I   article that someone will take you for the full $285 every four hours. Is that if you stay at the same table? Is this an average of the hours played for all the sessions using this method?"

The four-hour average is based on me using a fairly low threshold to begin the C-T/S-L sequence. That is, I try to continually force the issue as far as what constitutes a choppy table.

For me, the Choppy-Table/Short-Leash Method is in a semi-permanent in-casino beta-testing phase (and has been for about two years now), where I’m looking at its applicability and suitability to various other table situations; and then judging it on an ongoing basis as to how well it adapts to each of them. In doing so, I’m willing to sacrifice a bit of my current C-T/S-L profitability for the sake of expanding its possible uses and horizons, or altering its risk/return ratio by tweaking certain activation/de-activation points.

I’ll have more to say about these “Extended Uses” a little later in this article, as well as in the next FAQ P-3 piece.

In most cases, if I step up to the table, I'll do a quick survey of the players racks, to see how short-stacked they are. This, along with the type and spread of bet, will give me a good indication of how the table has been performing over the past twenty minutes or so. Depending on the sullenness of their faces and their general demeanor, I can get a pretty good handle on whether or not this offers a good enough "starting point " for the C-T/S-L.

Admittedly, that isn’t a very scientific basis for starting such a “numbers oriented” betting-method, however I’ve gotten pretty good at being able to read body-language and player disposition at a table. Given that, I can often judge quite accurately on those observations alone, just how primed the table is (in terms of choppiness) for this method to be applied.

For most players who are considering the use of this method, my low-threshold approach IS NOT ideal. It takes deep pockets, a tolerance for going deep into the bet-progression, and the confident knowledge that my own shooting is usually good enough to bail out any losses that I subject myself to by being too quick to use the C-T/S-L so often. Also keep in mind, that I am actively searching for new strike-points, benchmarks or more accurate “triggers” that will activate my wagering with this method.

I always counsel players to start out VERY slowly and cautiously with it, until they are comfortable enough with the bet-amounts and are also confident enough in their own ability to discern a proper betting opportunity.

So, under "normal" circumstances using a higher threshold of choppiness before you begin the betting sequence, you should run into the "session wipe-out" about half as often as I do (about once every 8 hours compared to once every 4 hours). It really comes down to qualifying the table-trend, and making sure that you aren’t trying to out-bet (out-smart) any Precision-Shooters or more-difficult-to-identify rhythmic-rollers who may be at your table. In that case, you may choose to simply suspend your C-T/S-L betting until the dice are past any semi-skilled players. If you are experiencing $285 session wipe-outs more often than once every 6 to 8 hours, then simply tighten your starting-point triggers a bit further.


HOW Does it Work

"MP, in ten words or less can you tell me why your C-T/S-L works. I’ve tried it in the casino, and I found that it does work, but now I want to know why."

Quick, in ten words or less, describe what love is, and then prove it…just kidding.

Let’s start out with a couple of craps basics:

We both agree the basic odds of a “7” showing up at any given time in the hands of a random-roller is 1 in 6.

The chance of a random-roller making multiple Point-winners in a row is as follows:

Ø     There is a 40% chance that a player will make his 1st PL-Point.

Ø     There is a 16% chance that a player will make a 2nd PL-Point in a row.

Ø     There is a 7% chance that a player will make his 3rd Point in a row.

Ø     There is a 3% chance that a random-roller will make a 4th winning PL-Point in a row.

Ø     There is a 1.2% chance that a player will be able to make his 5th PL-Point in a row.

Ø     There is a 0.5% chance that a player will eventually make six PL-Points in a row.

On any given roll of the dice, there is ALWAYS and ONLY a 1-in-6 chance that a “7” will roll, however that is not the complete picture. It would be, if one and ONLY one roll determined the entire outcome for each hand, but that is not the case.

Each roll is a SNAPSHOT.

Each hand is the entire MOVIE.

While the whole movie is made up of many individual pictures; you have to look at the totality of them to understand and PROFIT from the bigger picture, or in this case, the entire movie.

The chances of rolling a “7” at any given time is 16.66%. That’s the single-roll snapshot of where the “7” fits into the expected-frequency of outcomes. On it’s own, a 16.66% (1-in-6) chance of occurrence seems pretty tame. However, if you’ve played the game of craps for more than ten minutes in your lifetime; you soon realize just how powerful that 16.66% expectancy really is.

Because of skew and volatility, the “7” won’t always show up like clockwork on each and every sixth roll. That’s not how expectancy works. Rather, we know that on average, it will show up that often; which means sometimes we’ll see a lot of them, and sometimes they will be rare.

Fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on which side you are betting with), they are never rare for very long.

That is because the cumulative odds dictate that it WILL appear sooner or later, and the longer you go without seeing one, the preponderance of it showing up increases exponentially. To see that for yourself, take a look again at how difficult it is for a random-roller to make his first PL-Point, let alone his third, fourth and fifth PL-Point winner. The more Points he makes, the more difficult it is to make the next one. Though we expect the “7” once out of every six rolls, a random-rollers sometimes takes us deep into a hand where the cumulative odds are stratospheric. Otherwise, we would often see players ROUTINELY making 30, 40, 50 or even 100 Passline-Points in a row. I’m not talking about once a decade, I’m talking about once every couple of hours.

Clearly that doesn’t happen, and there is an obvious reason it doesn’t happen.

The reason it doesn’t happen is because of the cumulative odds of the “7” NOT showing up for extended periods, or a player making many, many PL-Point winners in a row, is quite low.

Are the odds of that something that we can work with and possibly exploit?

On a choppy or cool-trending table, I say that it is something we can absolutely work with, and something we can DEFINITELY exploit. That is precisely what my Choppy-Table/Short-Leash Method is designed to take advantage of.

Wait a minute…that explanation took more than ten words!

Okay, let’s try this. The C-T/S-L Method works because:

Cumulative probability outweighs individual roll-expectation.

That’s only six words, so I’ll add:

Trends indicate…consecutiveness dictates.

Risk, Heart-Palpitations, and the Fifth-Stage of Betting

"MP, I LOVE your Choppy-Table Method, but I’ve got to tell you that it gives me heart-palpitations when I get to the $155 fifth-stage of the series. Yes it works, yes it makes me money, but I also feel like my heart is going to pop out of my chest when I have to throw down $155 on the Don’t Pass, especially after losing $5, $15, $35, and $75. What should I do?"

Just as this method is not appropriate for all table conditions, it really isn’t appropriate for all players either.

For the risk-averse, the queasy of stomach, the weak of heart, or the short of bankroll; the C-T/S-L may not be appropriate.

As ESPN columnist Bill Simmons would say:

I was an extra 100 pounds and one hooker away from re-enacting the last 15 minutes of Chris Farley's "E! True Hollywood Story life." For a lot of players, that pretty much describes how they feel about having to put out the prescribed larger bets while using this method.

You have to be properly financed and mentally prepared for this type and this level of betting action. If your mind, heart and gut are not prepared for it; then your wallet shouldn’t be either. If that’s the case, then a more conservative approach may be indicated by myself as well as your doctor.


Pittsburg Johnnie

"Hey Professor...Just wanted to thank you for all the work and good info on Irishsetters site...I am curious when was the last time you ran into Pittsburg Johnny? I have been playing his/your DP-progression (L-O-N-G Leash Method) the last year and a half. It’s amazing…I have had the best year since I started playing craps 5 years ago."

It's great to hear that that method is still spinning off some good results for you.

When I first wrote about it (both in my Life is Craps According to Pittsburgh Johnnie article as well as the original Dodging Bullets As A Darksider), many people just didn't believe that it would work with any level of consistency or predictability. Of course they were wrong, but it's not my job to try and convince them.

For me, the Pittsburg Johnnie LONG-Leash Method generates about $75 per-hour on random-rolling crowded tables. When you add that income to my own Precision-Shooting, it's actually a pretty decent method of play. For comparison sake, my Choppy-Table/SHORT-Leash only generates about $40 per-hour on the same $5 base-bet table, but the C-T/S-L is much less gut-wrenching when you get to the upper-reaches of the betting-series.

When I last spoke with Pittsburg Johnnie, he was down in Biloxi, where he had been playing nearly EVERY DAY for the past five or six months. Apparently, he and another pro-shooter have hooked up and they stay in one jurisdiction until they have two losing days in a row, then they move on to the next region.

My understanding is that they are moving on to Reno and Lake Tahoe after they get tired of the Biloxi/Gulfport/Bay St. Louis/New Orleans area.

Thankfully Johnnie has stayed fairly healthy since his last heart-attack a couple of years back. He has cut back a bit on the womanizing, and he now
ONLY plays about 8 to 12 hours a day. Now I’m not prepared to ENTIRELY blame his multiple heart-attacks on using this method year after year, BUT it does give me pause AGAIN to say that you have to be FULLY prepared (both financially as well as psychologically) when you use either the short-leash and most ESPECIALLY if you choose to use Johnnie’s LONG-leash method.


The Calming-Effect of This Method

"MP, your Choppy-Table Short-Leash has turned my world around. I now KNOW that I’ll usually win, and even when I lose, I know that it won’t take long to recoup those losses. I feel calm and confident when I’m at the table now, instead of jumpy and scared like I used to when I was waiting for the 7-Out to wipe out my rightside random-roller Place-bets. Is it wrong to feel this way? I’ve hit my session loss-limit several times, yet it doesn’t bother me the way that previous losses half that size would have bothered me in the past. The C-T/S-L makes comebacks from seemingly impossible depths. Thank you for what you have done."

Gee, thanks for writing that testimonial Mom, the check is in the mail. I think you’ll soon be getting an offer from Scoblete to write some of his book reviews too. Seriously though, it’s ironic that I’ve listed this question AFTER talking about risk-aversion, heart-attacks and gut-checks.

I'll relate a quick story which reflects a similar feeling of calm and relaxed confidence while using this method.

Quite a while back when I had the C-T/S-L in its early development stage, I was playing this method at the Golden Nugget while awaiting the dice to cycle back around to my shooting-position. I was in deep conversation with a very well-known/infamous pro-boxing referee who gained some short-lived, but world-wide notoriety during a couple of controversial LV matches involving Mike Tyson. This chap just happened to also be (at that moment) a Pit Boss for GN's former parent company MGM-Mirage in his less controversial full-time day-job.

In any event, he had noticed the steady profits that my new wagering approach was bringing in, along with the increased calm and relaxed confidence that he said it brought to my already composed demeanor. As he put it, "You look like someone who KNOWS without a doubt that he's gonna win, but this time you're not even holding the dice".


I casually waved it off, and said, "
Nah, it only works when the tables are choppy". He retorted with a half-mocking, "Ahhh, that's too bad, since the freakin' tables are choppy MOST of the damn time!"

With the C-T/S-L you will lose some of the time. However, when applied properly to choppy or cool-trending tables; this method brings in steady profits, and even the losses are fairly easy to recoup.

While I still recommend that you have a substantial bankroll (at least $3000, and preferably $5000) to back up that confidence, it is important that you maintain the Short-Leash at it $155 final-stage bet as an actual stop-loss limit for the times when a lucky random-roller does come along to knock off your fifth-tier bet, and then still be able to recover economically as well as mentally, when you apply it again at another session.

"MP, I’ll admit that I’ve tried to use your Short-Leash Choppy-Table Method at tables that were less than choppy and like you warned, the results weren’t pretty. When I use it at choppy or cool tables, it works like a charm, but when the tables are warm or hot, I lose my ass, my lunch and most of my money. I don’t have the patience to track trends or wait for one to show itself before I begin to bet, and I don’t have the bankroll to take your method all the way to the fifth-stage like you recommend. I don’t believe in charting table-temperature, shooter-skills or any of that other voodoo. When I get to the tables, I want to play. Your method sure is one tough way to MAKE money, what do you recommend?"

The first thing I can say is that this is a CHOPPY-table method, and not an EVERY-table method. It cannot be used every time that you play, nor at every table that you decide to play at.

You have to SELECTIVELY pick your opportunities, THEN you take your shot. You have to have a cool-headed, even-breathing, totally professional patient attitude (like a sniper). You can’t be shooting (betting) on anything that moves (anyone who rolls) like a psychotic postal-worker.

You may not believe in charting, and that is fine, but you have to take an ACCURATE pulse on what is happening at the tables, and what trend is occurring. It’s not voodoo. Craps tables are quite streaky, so choppy tables are not hard to find. Most tables are “choppy” to “cold” about 60% of the time. Perhaps you may have to look at how you define an appropriate choppy-table condition, or in the alternative, look at the current trend at several tables before you pick the appropriate one to apply this method.

Again, you CANNOT use this method at every table on every shooter…or you will lose; and you will lose BIG TIME!

The second problem that you have already identified is that you CANNOT use this method if you are short-sheeted in the bankroll department, or if you are tentative in making the final-stage bet. It is called a Short-Leash because it keeps a firm grip on your losses, but you have to be FINANCIALLY prepared, as well as being MENTALLY prepared to make the necessary bets when called for.

In other words, you have to have the proper bankroll in the first place, and then you have to be prepared to make the proper wagers at the appropriate time.

If there is any doubt in your mind as to whether you are ready or able to make the properly-sized wager at each stage of this method when called for; then the Choppy-Table/Short-Leash Method IS NOT FOR YOU.

The one shortcoming of this betting-approach is that it sometimes gives you a false sense of security, in that it usually works. In fact, on choppy tables, it works so well that a lot of people are genuinely surprised when they first encounter a loss. Make no mistake, you will eventually lose, and that is precisely why we keep a Short-Leash on the betting-amount, so that all of your winning sessions easily offset the occasional fifth-stage total loss.
Again, I would suggest that you use WinCraps to prove to yourself that it works. In that way, when you are using it in a real-world situation, you are less likely to balk if you reach the final betting stage. However, I will reiterate that I STRONGLY recommend that you have at least a $5000 bankroll before you use this method at all.
Simply stated…it works, but you need the cash to back it up. This is the ONLY choppy-table method that I’m aware of which works well 99.5% of the time. Honestly define what a choppy table is, then prove it to yourself on WinCraps BEFORE you use it in the casino. If you aren’t willing to put the time and effort into qualifying the right time to use it; then you will have UNQUALIFIED LOSSES, and yes, it’s THAT simple!
"Hey MP, why not hedge your C-T/S-L with a 3-way-7 and a straight up Yo-bet ($1 each, for a $4 total investment), or start making ever-increasing Come-bets, where the size of the base-bet is equal to the total of all the money exposed on the “DO” side when the 7 rolls, or maybe even start making Lay-bets on the No-4 and/or the No-10."

 With my Choppy-Table/Short-Leash Method the idea is to give you a good and VERY CONSISTENT shot at the brass ring of steady profit, WITHOUT undue risk or bankroll erosion.

By making the hedge-bets that you mentioned, your profit actually erodes pretty quickly, because your net-wins are always diluted and diminished by the losses that you endure on the other bets that you have made.

For example, I made an average profit of $13.05 against each shooter that I bet against while using this method over an 18-month trial period. If I had hedged my DP wagers, I would think that I'd be at the break-even point, or even in the loss-column because of those hedges you are contemplating. That should give you a good idea of how thin the profit margin actually is; so you really have very little room for error.

When a new PL-Point is established (after the random-roller has successfully made his first Point ON A CHOPPY TABLE), we simply wait until a decision is made. On a win, we collect our winnings, and on a loss, we move up to the next
step in the progression.

With this method, we don't make any Come-bets, we don't make any Lay-4 or 10 bets; we don't do ANYTHING but wait for the inevitable 7-Out. Yes, one shooter out of 200 will actually make six PL-Points in a row, and we will lose our $285 loss-limit for that session. It does happen, but obviously, it doesn't happen often enough on a cool or choppy table to offset our winnings. Again, I STRONGLY recommend that you PROVE IT TO YOURSELF with WinCraps or with any other simulator or suitable-length roll-record.

This method is designed for CHOPPY or cool-trending tables that you have deemed to be worthy of your bets, and for the "action-junkie" who likes to have a ton of bets on lots of different wagers...clearly THIS IS NOT FOR THEM.

Rather, the C-T/S-L approach is designed for Precision-Shooters who find themselves PATIENTLY waiting for the dice to cycle back around to them.

For a completely different view of hedge-betting, I would kindly invite you to have a look at my Bill & Ted's Excellent System article...and at my A Fresh Look at Old Systems article. In addition, you may want to have a peek at some GRIND methods in my What Are You Doing When You Retire? article.

"The one negative about using your method is that there are too many instances when you are waiting for the shooter to make their first PL-Point in order to start the C-T/S-L play, but they never get that far. The table is SO choppy or trending SO cool, that I can’t start the C-T/S-L because no one is making ANY points. Is there any way to jump in sooner?"

Yes, you can definitely jump in sooner if the table is trending THAT choppy or THAT cool. While you recognize that it puts you deeper into the risk-curve than you would otherwise want to be; the trend is indicating that a clear opportunity exists, and therefore should be exploited.

I have been doing what I would call an Early Trigger Start on the choppiest or coolest of tables for quite a while now. The results look quite good, but I have to caution you not to jump in with both feet until you have become so used to using this method during normally choppy or cool-trending cycles, that you have no misgivings whatsoever about pulling the trigger a little sooner when the right opportunity shows its face.

The Early Trigger Start for the Short-Leash is used in precisely the conditions that you outlined in your question.

       When the dice seem to have a one-track Point-then-Out mentality, and everyone at the table is shaking their heads in disbelief, and even the liars are complaining about the miserable dreariness of steady 7-Outs; then you KNOW the C-T/S-L is just chomping at the bit in order to get into the action.

       That is when I use the Early Trigger Start, which means that I don’t wait for the shooter to make his first PL-Point, but instead jump in on his first Come-Out.

       The one pre-qualifier for the use of this Early Trigger, is that the table has to have been choppy or cool for some time now, and the last two players have failed to even repeat their first PL-Point before 7’ing-Out.

My own financial results from using the Early Trigger Start (as set out above) offers a bit of a paradox (contradiction in logic).

On one hand, the average revenue-per-shooter is LOWER than when using the C-T/S-L in its normal mode. That is because you hardly ever get to “go deep” into the betting-series (where you make $5 for each and every subsequent loss in the series). In fact, it makes just under seven bucks per use ($6.85) instead of the $13.05 that you’ll earn when using the standard bet-start methods (where the shooter has to repeat his first PL-Point before you start betting against him).

That’s the bad news.

The good news is that your expected-earning (net-income) actually goes up on an hourly basis, when you look at the exposure-time (the amount of time you actually have your bets in action on the table); when compared to the conventional/normal conditions that you’d usually apply this to.

The reason for that is quite simple.  

If the table gets super-choppy or cool/cold, and stays that way; you end up using it more frequently on an hourly basis. In that case, it makes nearly double what you would make under normal 60% choppy-table conditions. That equates to ~$70 per hour. However, that figure is based ONLY on it’s actual “in use” time, and NOT what you could expect to make hour after hour.

In other words, if the table stays super-choppy or cool/cold for half-an-hour; then you’ll likely make about $35 in that 30-minute time period, but that DOES NOT mean that you can continue using it in that Early Trigger Start mode on an hour after hour basis. So the $70/hour rate is based SOLELY on the extrapolated minute-to-minute earnings that the Early Trigger Start garners when the table remains in that super-choppy or cool/cold funk.

We’ll take a look at a few other Extended Use applications of my Choppy-Table/Short-Leash Method, along with some variations on its use for the more risk-averse among us in the upcoming Frequently Asked Questions – Part Three.

Until then, let me wish you the very best of luck and the most refined of good skill at the craps tables…and in Life.

Sincerely,

The Mad Professor

Do you have questions or comments about the articles and subjects discussed here at the Dice Institute? Sign up for our member's forum and share them with us!

About

This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on January 14, 2007 9:12 PM.

The previous post in this blog was FAQ’s About The Choppy-Table/Short-Leash - Part 1.

The next post in this blog is Ask the Mad Professor - Part 14.

Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

Creative Commons License
This weblog is licensed under a Creative Commons License.
Powered by
Movable Type 3.34