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Regression Avoids Depression: Part Five

Using Different Steepness Ratios

In Part Four of this series, we looked at the profitability of using a $110-Inside to $22-Inside regression. That equates to a 5:1 regression-ratio.  Part One of this series explains in detail what regression-ratios are, and how we use them.

Simply stated:

Simply stated:

  1. The steeper the regression-ratio is; the higher, earlier and more often a net-profit will be secured.
  2. The shallower the regression-ratio is; the less frequent and lower our net-profit will be.

The Risk of Using Too LOW of a Regression Ratio

If we try to go cheap with our betting by not putting out a large enough initial bet (or by flat-betting) when we have the best chance of actually capitalizing on our Precision-Shooting abilities; then it's little wonder why so many accomplished players run into difficulty in exploiting even their most obvious skills.

  1. If our bets are too low or the regressions that we use are too shallow in ratio; then we'll almost always restrain and unnecessarily retard our advantage-play earnings.
  2. Most players look at a lower-value/lower-ratio starting-level for their regression as a way of reducing volatility; but in fact, it just makes it harder (or almost impossible) for them to break through to profit on a sustainable basis.
  3. The lower and closer your Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio (SRR) is to random; the less time (as measured by number of point-cycle rolls) you will have in which to capitalize on your dice-influencing skill. Therefore you have to bet on the fattest part of your roll-duration expectancy curve.


Let's take a look at various ISR steepness-ratios to see how they affect our average profit per hand.

Inside-bet Regression Various Steepness Ratios SRR-7
Ratio 2:1 3:1 4:1 5:1 10:1
InitialLarge Bet $44-Inside $66-Inside $88-Inside $110-Inside $220-Inside
Subsequent Small Bet $22-Inside $22-Inside $22-Inside $22-Inside $22-Inside
1st Hit $14 $21 $28 $35 $70
2nd Hit Post Regression $6.92 Weighted payout Post Regression $6.92 Weighted payout Post Regression $6.92 Weighted payout Post Regression $6.92 Weighted payout Post Regression $6.92 Weighted payout
Total Expected Payout $20.92 $27.92 $34.92 $41.92 $76.92
Remaining Exposed Wagers $22.00 $22.00 $22.00 $22.00 $22.00
Net-Profit per Hand -$1.08 $5.92 $12.92 $19.92 $54.92
Return on Investment -2.45% 8.97% 14.68% 18.11% 24.96%

As you can see on the chart above; combining a regression that is too shallow (2:1) with a modest SRR, can result in a negative result even though you will often hit your first paying Inside-Number bet and still be able to make the regression.  What puts this SRR-7 shooter into negative territory is the fact that he won't hit enough paying Inside-Numbers often enough at the regressed $22-Inside mark to make the bet become net-positive.

On the other hand, you can see that if this same SRR-7 shooter simply increases (steepens) the ISR regression-ratio to 3:1, the very same skill-set produces a modest profit.

  • As your SRR-rate improves and the steepness of your regression increases; so does your return on investment.

For example, in the chart below, a SRR-8 dice-influencer produces a profit even when employing a shallow 2:1 regression ratio. Obviously though, his bet-flexibility and overall income rises dramatically as his regression-ratio increases.

Inside-bet Regression Various Steepness Ratios SRR-8
Ratio 2:1 3:1 4:1 5:1 10:1
Initial Large Bet $44-Inside $66-Inside $88-Inside $110-Inside $220-Inside
Subsequent Small Bet $22-Inside $22-Inside $22-Inside $22-Inside $22-Inside
1st Hit $14 $21 $28 $35 $70
2nd Hit $14 $21 $28 $35 $70
3rd Hit $14 $21 $28 $35 $70
4th Hit Post Regression $6.69 Weighted payout Post Regression $6.69 Weighted payout Post Regression $6.69 Weighted payout Post Regression $6.69 Weighted payout Post Regression $6.69 Weighted payout
Total Expected Payout $48.69 $69.69 $90.69 $111.69 $216.69
Remaining Exposed Wagers $22.00 $22.00 $22.00 $22.00 $22.00
Net-Profit per Hand $26.69 $47.69 $68.69 $89.69 $194.69
Return on Investment 60.66% 72.26% 78.06% 81.54% 88.50%

It is important to note that each SRR-level forces a different bet-reduction trigger point. While the SRR-7 shooter has to immediately regress his large initial bet after just one hit; the SRR-8 dice-influencer can reasonably keep them up at their initial large size for the first three point-cycle rolls before having to steeply regress them.

  • As your SRR improves over random, the higher your rate-of-return will be.
  • Obviously, the more well-endowed your session bankroll is and the more comfortable you are in using higher-ratio steeper-regression wagers; the more you are able to take full advantage of your dice-influencing skills.

Take a look at the added flexibility that a SRR-9 dice-influencer enjoys.

Inside-bet Regression Various Steepness Ratios SRR-9
Ratio 2:1 3:1 4:1 5:1 10:1
Initial Large Bet $44-Inside $66-Inside $88-Inside $110-Inside $220-Inside
Subsequent Small Bet $22-Inside $22-Inside $22-Inside $22-Inside $22-Inside
1st Hit $14 $21 $28 $35 $70
2nd Hit $14 $21 $28 $35 $70
3rd Hit $14 $21 $28 $35 $70
4th Hit $14 $21 $28 $35 $70
5th Hit Post Regression $6.86 Weighted payout Post Regression $6.86 Weighted payout Post Regression $6.86 Weighted payout Post Regression $6.86 Weighted payout Post Regression $6.86 Weighted payout
Total Expected Payout $62.68 $90.86 $118.86 $146.86 $286.86
Remaining Exposed Wagers $22.00 $22.00 $22.00 $22.00 $22.00
Net-Profit per Hand $40.86 $68.86 $96.86 $124.86 $264.86
Return on Investment 98.86% 104.33% 110.07% 113.51% 120.39%

Part Six of this series adds a whole new dimension to regression-based profit-making. I hope you will join me for that. Until then,

Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables and in Life.

Sincerely,

The Mad Professor

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on January 5, 2007 4:29 AM.

The previous post in this blog was Ask the Mad Professor - Part 4.

The next post in this blog is Part 5: Learning the Game of Craps.

Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

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