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Ask the Mad Professor - Part 10

A guy goes to a bar and sees a big jar filled with $5-bills. He asks the bartender, "What’s with the money?"

The bartender replies, "We're having a contest.  You have to put $5 in the jar; then you have to complete three tasks.  If you complete them all; then you get all the money in the jar."
"Ah, lets give it a try," says the man, as he puts $5 in the jar.  "First" says the bartender, "you have to drink 4 oz. of tequila without making a face.  Second, there is a vicious rottweiller outside with a sore tooth, and you have to pull it out.  Third, upstairs there is an old woman who has never had sex in her life, and you have to have sex with her, okay?"  "Fine" says the man, as he downs the 4 oz. of tequila without making a face.  Now drunk, he goes outside, as the bartender starts to hear a lot of yelling, barking, snarling, screaming and yelping.  When the man comes back in, his clothes are all torn, and his arms, legs and face are all shredded and bloody.  He says, "Okay, where’s the old woman with the sore tooth?"

Q:

I know that you don’t drink very much alcohol when you play, but do you ever go out for drinks in Las Vegas?  If so, what are your favorite places and why?

A:
In fact, I do not drink ANY alcohol AT ALL when I am playing. Among my favorite places to meet friends and/or have a pre-dinner or pre-show drink, I would recommend the following places:


Fontana Lounge at Bellagio.  It features Jimmy Hopper on piano, ultra-premium drinks and prices to match.  Bellagio is fairly central to everything; and this lounge is relaxing; but once I am relaxing in one of their deeply-padded chairs, I don’t want to get up for at least forty minutes or so.


BIG martinis are found in Red Square at Mandalay Bay.  The ice-surfaced bar, fashionable surroundings and some unique Russian-appetizers, are what we like about this place.  The craps tables here are frequently sparsely-populated during the day, so I’ll arrange to meet friends here for a post-session celebration.

The Sky-View Lounge at Polo Towers is a neat hideaway that has an excellent view of the Strip.  Recently it has been “discovered” by a growing number of people.  As such, it has lost a lot of it’s exclusivity, but the view remains good.

The Voodoo Lounge at the Rio, and,

The Sky Bar at the Palms, and,

The House of Blues’ Foundation Room, all provide top-of-Vegas views and outdoor patios, which make them excellent spots to entertain new-to-Vegas friends.  All three of these places have a “get-away-from-it-all” feel to them.  The first two have a low-threshold dress-code during the day, but they raise the fashion-bar around 9:00 pm.  The H.o.B’s Foundation Room requires a membership, but if you are a frequent Mandalay/Luxor/Excalibur/Circus Circus rated-player, they may comp the $2000 membership fee.

The Stratosphere’s Top of The World Lounge provides an excellent view.  This is an easy “drinks-only” comp if you are a $5 player who is not wearing jeans or running-shoes.  Just ask a Pit Boss for a comped Tower Pass and Lounge comp.  The sunset view is sensational, and they sometimes have live entertainment.

Q:
How do you count in-casino rolls and calculate Sevens-to-Rolls Ratios?  I assume the roll count of each of your hands does not include the 7-out, and does not include all of the Come-Out rolls.  Do you start after you have established the Point?  I throw three or four winner-7’s on the C-O roll, but by doing so, it screws up my SRR by keeping the actual ratio artificially low.

A:
Guys, that’s why they say there are lies, damn lies and then statistics.  I personally track the number of my Come-Out rolls (currently stagnating at ~5).  I keep that number separate from the rest of the hand.  Once I establish a Point, I start "roll-counting” from there.  I count the Point number as being roll #1.

When I repeat my Point, I stop the “roll” count, and start a fresh Come-out count again.  When I establish a new Point number, I restart the “roll” count from where I left off.  I continue that until I 7-Out, and I do not count the final 7-Out roll.

Let me tell you why I do it that way, and what the drawbacks are.

I do it because I use the Come-Out roll as a mini-game within my much larger (hopefully, much longer) main hand.  I treat the C-O as it's own individual profit opportunity.  I figure that if I'm not making a profit on five C-O rolls; then I'm doing something seriously wrong.

Yes, the major drawback, is that it keeps my roll-count at an artificially low number.  Now keep in mind that that is all relative.  Yes, my roll-count is fairly good, but if I added my C-O rolls to it, then the number would be quite a bit higher.

So, why go to all the trouble?  Well, I keep the roll stats for my own benefit, and to track my progress.  It's not done to impress or bedazzle others.  It’s not a matter of whipping out your dick to see who’s is the biggest.  I simply want to increase my craps-profit, without increasing my risk.  Longer hands SHOULD be more profitable, but if your betting methods don't coincide with the numbers being thrown; then it is all for naught.
You could count your number of rolls from the first toss of the dice and continue counting until you 7-Out. That gives you your average roll-length. This number would include all of the Come-Out 7-winners that you throw. Yes, the number would be higher than your SRR, but it gives you a better handle on your per-roll-profitability.

"Per-Roll-Profitability" is determined by taking the total NET profit derived from one complete hand, and then dividing that net profit by the TOTAL number of rolls.  For example, a total NET profit of $90 from one complete hand which contained, let's say 18 rolls, would equate to a per-roll-profitability of $5.00.

This does not mean that you have to make a profit off of each roll of the dice. Rather, it is a way of measuring the increasing profitability of your Precision-Throwing.

When you look at per-roll-profitability, it forces you to look at the types of bets you are making.  It also forces you to determine if your bets are generally profitable or not. It compels you to focus primarily on YOUR Signature Numbers which provide the bread-and-butter basis of your profit.

Let me give you another example.  Take that same 18-roll hand that we just mentioned.  Let’s say that you used the All-7 set on the Come-Out roll WITH THE INTENTION of throwing winner-7’s.  You proceed to do well with that set, and bang out four winner-7’s.  That’s a good start isn’t it!  Okay, you carry on to throw fourteen more numbers, and several of them are Place bet repeaters that also generate some good profit for you.  When you finally 7-Out on the 19th throw of the dice (we don’t count the final throw), you look at your SRR.  Lo and behold it is a paltry 4.5:1.  What is wrong with this picture?  Nothing is wrong with the math, but the logic is all screwed up.

Sometimes we have to use common-sense.  I know…common-sense ain’t so common, but let’s use some of it right here.  If we are TRYING to throw the winner-7; then that effort shouldn’t be used AGAINST our SRR.  To do so would be using tainted logic!

To my mind, here’s how it should work.

When we are setting the dice FOR the 7; then those statistics should be logged separately.  For this exercise, you WANT the lowest SRR as possible.  Using the All-7 set on the Come-Out Roll, I currently generate a SRR of 3.5:1.  That means that I throw 3.5 Sevens for every 1.0 non-7.

Okay, when we are setting FOR the Point; then those roll-statistics should be calculated towards our SRR.  If you take the 18-roll example that we used above; then we know that there were 14-rolls that followed our four C-O winner-7’s.  Once we establish the Point, we are now trying to AVOID the 7, so we switch dice-sets to one of our 7-Avoidance sets, such as 3-V, Crossed 6’s, Flying-2’s, etc.  Including the establishing of the Point, we know that we had 14-rolls before we 7’d-Out.  That gives us an SRR of 14:1 for that hand.

Now purists would say that because of all of the winner-7’s, that the SRR should still be 4.5:1, because you threw four 7’s during your 18-roll hand, but like I said, let’s use some common-sense.

Further to that, while we are in the casino, it may be beneficial to keep track of the TOTAL number of rolls from start to finish from one hand.  This goes back to the Per-Roll-Profitability issue, and the fact that we should be eliminating the non-paying bets, and focusing in on the consistent money-makers.

While we all want to work against quantifiable benchmarks upon which to gauge our improvement, we shouldn’t get bogged down with “analysis paralysis” with these numbers.  My best advice is to track your rolls in a way that benefits your own profitability.  Like I’ve said before…you can make good sustainable profit in dice hands that are as short as two or three rolls.

Q:
I’ve read all of your articles including Lifestyles of the Precision-Shooter, and I have re-read all the other ones that I think deal with Comps.  I still have one question that doesn’t seem to appear anywhere in your stuff.  Do you ever sell any of your comps?  Like if you get tickets to a show or concert, do you ever “scalp” them to get the money.  I’m really interested in this because I was thinking of the cancelled Tyson fight that was scheduled for the MGM in Vegas.  If someone had tickets, and the fight was to occur; the tickets would be worth a fortune to any scalper.

A:
Good question, but the quick answer is, NO, I’ve never sold any comps to anyone.  However, I have given quite a large number of tickets away.  It’s funny that you mention Tyson, because when he last boxed and ate (sick) at the MGM against Evander Holyfield, we had extra tickets and gave them away.  We were staying at NYNY and on our way over to the MGM for the match, we ran into some people that we had befriended during one particularly great craps-session the previous evening.  I asked if they were interested in seeing the Tyson fight.  They were surprised, shocked and amazed.  They offered us money for them, but we let them take care of the pre-fight drinks instead.

Q:
I just read your Lifestyles of the Precision-Shooter, and I enjoyed it tremendously.  My husband’s shooting has improved by a huge amount since he started reading your advice.  He turned me onto reading you as well.  I have him tell me whenever you publish a new article.  I have a question for you.  In that Lifestyles article, you mentioned that you sometimes use a poolside cabana.  Are they expensive or can anyone rent them.  Will they accommodate our family of five?  Can we sign them to our room at the Mirage where we will be staying? Will they comp them?  Do most other hotels have cabanas?  PLEASE keep writing such readable and informative articles.


A:

At the Mirage, there are six pools at varying temperatures and sizes, each in its own unique setting. They have plenty of chairs and excellent poolside service.  And yes, a cabana is an excellent idea for families or couples.

For approximately $130 you get a tent with baby crib (if necessary), TV, fridge, four extra-cushy lounges, two floats, a fruit plate, a six-pack of soda, a curtained dressing room, table, four more chairs and the option of ordering off the room-service menu. Plus, you get your own “cabana boy”.

If you and your family plan to spend the day at the pool this gives you a central place to gather, as well as some diversions if necessary.  A few other major hotels have cabanas, and you can charge them to your room-account.  Yes, the charges are “compable” depending on your level of play.  If both you and your husband give The Mirage ANY gaming action, then you would want your comp-accounts to be joint, and have your total play considered by your casino host at the end of the trip.

Thanks again for all the great questions. Until next time,

Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.


By: The Mad Professor

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on January 10, 2007 6:38 PM.

The previous post in this blog was Regression Avoids Depression - Part 10.

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