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Novice Shooters Can Make A Profit Despite Low SRR's*

(The V-3's Set as a Case In Point. *SRR = Sevens to Rolls Ratio.)

I want to first say that this is just my humble opinion. If you have an alternative point of view I will gladly hear it, and perhaps even post it.

So, why would I make a statement like this? First of all, before even delving into the dice influencing implications, I want to restate that:

Precision shooting without a strong corresponding betting strategy and discipline will not yield the profits you seek!

To begin with, there REALLY are only six possible dice sets. They can be manipulated a multitude of ways showing many many horizontal and vertical dice faces, but the reality is, each die has three axis’ and there two dice, therefore there are only six possible sets. Three are strong for comeout (assuming you are a right bettor) and three are strong for seven avoidance when executed properly. For this discussion, I will ignore the comeout sets altogether. It’s of course imperative that you learn and practice a set for the comeout throw, and I have my own favorites for achieving certain results, but for now, let’s move on to after a point has been established.

So, as a novice dice influencer, you’ve established your point. Have you thought about what your goals are? Is your goal to make money? Not lose money? Make your point? Before determining what set you should use, you need to determine your goals. Frankly, I would urge all precision shooters, not just beginners, to first and foremost, guarantee that they show a profit when they are the shooter. “Easier said than done!” you say. Actually, it’s easier than you think and it’s the purpose of this article.

First let’s look at the V-3’s set. Below is a chart of the (ideal) probable outcomes for the set.

Probable Outcomes
Dice Totals 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Frequencies 0 1 1 2 3 2 3 2 1 1 0 16
There are several things to observe. First and foremost is that the six and eight have three probable occurrences each. Six out of sixteen, which is 37.5% of the total for this set. (Even for random rollers, the 6 and 8 combined offer a 27.8% chance at hitting.) Let's say you’ve been practicing your precision throwing and you have an SRR of 1:7 or 1:8. It’s not a great SRR, but it’s certainly enough to make a consistent profit. So, what should you do? Here's my suggestion.

First, your session bankroll should be no less than $300 on a $5 table. Your loss limit should be no more than $150, and I generally recommend a win goal to be no more than 1/3 of session bankroll. After you've established your point, if you can indeed throw the dice 6 or 7 times before the appearance of the 7, then you will break even, or better yet, make a profit. In addition, you may also appreciate the fact that you are placing wagers with some of the lowest house advantages on the table.

So why the V-3’s? No other set favors two point numbers more effectively than how the V-3's favor the 6 and 8! It’s my opinion that until your SRR is above 9, you should stick to the V-3’s set.

Here’s an illustration of a simple strategy that combined with a well practiced V-3’s set, can limit your risk at the table, and even make a tidy profit. It's efficient, it's effective and it limits your risk!

Pass Line Bet Point Number Odds Place 6 & 8 Amount Total At Risk
$5 4 or 10 $10 $48 ($24 each) $63
5 or 9 $10 $48 ($24 each) $63
6 or 8 $10 $24 $39

The goal here is, if nothing else to score one hit on the 6 or 8. After one hit on the 6 or 8, you would take the $28 payoff and reduce your place bets to $6 each on the 6 and 8. Now, here is your risk remembering this is after only ONE hit, even if you subsequently seven out!

Pass Line Bet Point Number Odds Place 6 & 8 Amount Total At Risk
$5 4 or 10 $10 $12 ($6 each) $0 (profit $1)
5 or 9 $10 $12 ($6 each) $0 (profit $1)
6 or 8 $10 $6 $0 (profit $7)

If you are indeed able to roll the dice 6 times before the seven out, there is over a 91% chance of making a small profit or breaking even! The V-3's set gives you the best chance at achieving this! (Compare that to 74% chance if you place the 4 & 10 or a 84% chance if you place 5 & 9)

What you do after this is really up to you. If you continue to roll, you may want to press your place bets every other hit, or perhaps spread your bets to the 5 and 9 or raise the odds amount on your pass line bet. Also, as John Patrick would declare, never be afraid to say “Take me down!” Since your playing with the casino’s money, the options are numerous!

What if you score one hit on the 6 or 8 and make your point? Or two hits and make your point?

Pass Line Bet Point Number Odds One hit on 6 or 8 and Make Your Point ($28 + Pass Line payoff) Two hits on 6 or 8 and Make Point ($28 + $7 + Pass Line payoff)
$5 4 or 10 $10 $53 $60
5 or 9 $10 $45 $52
6 or 8 $10 $45 $52

My point is, a nice profit can be made on even an average hand, if you're prudent.

There are two outcomes which can pose a problem. If you have not hit the 6 or 8, or your point or sevened out after 6 or 7 rolls of the dice, I would recommend to a novice to take your place bets down until there is an outcome on your pass line bet. Which brings me to the second challenging outcome. Suppose you make your point before scoring a hit on the six or eight? At the most, you have $25 in profit at this point. If I’ve had a hot hand previously in this session, I might leave the $48 on the 6 and 8 for a throw or two but probably not. Early on in my precision shooting career, I made 3 straight points followed by a quick seven out without hitting any of my place bets. Because I was an idiot, I hadn’t reduced my place bets and I actually lost money on a hand where I made three passes! So, I’m more inclined to limit my risk most of the time, and bring them down to $6 each in this case and press them quickly if my hand stays hot.

If you've now made a pass and scored a hit on the 6 or 8, you will probably want to cut your risk in half while trying to make your second pass. This guarantees a profit, while still having the casino's money working for you. You again are in a position to press your bets quickly if your hand stays hot.

On the other hand, if you seven out before scoring any hits for two consecutive hands, your session is over! Go regroup. Troubleshoot your precision shooting mechanics. The tables will always be waiting for you.

So, that's it in a nutshell. I know, it's a conservative recommendation, but I really do believe that the V-3's set is the best one for novices to use. Even for journeyman precision shooters, this set has a lot to offer.

Give this strategy a try and let me know how you do!

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on January 23, 2007 10:30 PM.

The previous post in this blog was Dice Setting, Rhythm Rolling, Precision Shooting…..What’s The Difference?.

The next post in this blog is Great Expectations….

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