No matter how good your dice-influencing skills are, you will generally have
more *short* (1 to 8 roll) point-cycle hands than you do of the *
medium* (9 to 20 roll) variety. Moreover, you will have even fewer *
long* (21 to 50 point-cycle rolls), even fewer *mini-mega* (51 to 70
rolls) ones, and finally much a smaller amount of *mammoth* (70+)
point-cycle hands.

That is the nature of craps regardless of your skill level.

In essence it means that ** most hands** will have at
least two, three or four point cycle rolls in them regardless of their eventual
duration, but fewer hands will have ten, eleven, or twelve rolls in them, again,
regardless of their eventual duration.

Some hands do go on to have 20, 30, or 40 point cycle rolls before the 7 shows up, but each of them starts out at the roll#1 starting point and proceeds from there. When you look at a graph for a SRR 8 shooter for example

- He'll survive the first point cycle roll approximately 87% of the time.
- He'll survive the second point cycle roll about 76% of the time.
- He'll survive the third point cycle roll around 67% of the time.
- He'll survive the fourth point cycle roll approximately 58% of the time.
- By the time we get to the tenth p c roll, he'll have a 26% statistical chance of getting to his eleventh one.
- On his twentieth point cycle roll, he'll have a 7% chance of emerging from that to make his twenty first p c toss.

If you look at each roll as an independent trial, then his SRR 8 chances of
rolling a 7 remains at 1 in 8 (12.5%) on each and every roll; however the
** cumulative effect** that his SRR rate has on
roll duration survivability

*does not*remain static.

Now before anyone tries to tells you that this has anything to do with "due
number" theory; I can state quite emphatically that it ** does not**.
Instead, it has everything to do with the reality of dice throwing and the
expected duration of a given hand based on your Sevens to Rolls Ratio (SRR).

For a random roller, we never know how long *one particular* hand will
last, but we can make some general observations about how long *most of them*
will last and specifically how often a roll will endure to a certain point.
Equally, we can do the same for any SRR rate that is either higher or lower than
random, and from there ** we can map out the likelihood of your chances
of having a 1 roll Point then Out hand or a 50 roll point cycle hand and
everything in between** and that is exactly what we are going to do
today.

## Using SRR To Determine Roll Duration Range

In a moment, you are going to see a chart which shows how each SRR
skill level will generally fair when the dice are thrown during the point cycle.
That is, we are going to look at the prospects of how likely it is for a given
shooter to get up to his 50^{th} point cycle roll without a hand ending
7 getting in the way.

Before we do that however, many curious players want to understand how and why the SRR based 7's appearance rate affects each and every subsequent throw that they make and I'm happy to provide the answer.

Random SRR 6 | SRR 7 | SRR 8 | SRR 9 | |
---|---|---|---|---|

Appearance Ratio | 1 in 6 | 1 in 7 | 1 in 8 | 1 in 9 |

Per Roll Probability | 16.67% | 14.29% | 12.50% | 11.11% |

7's per 36 rolls | 6 | 5.14 | 4.5 | 4 |

The chance of a 7 showing up on any given roll is determined by each players validated in casino SRR rate, and that in turn not only determines his expected roll duration, but it also determines the decay rate of any given hand.

For instance, we know that a random rollers SRR of 1:6 means that on any given throw there is a 16.67% chance that it will result in a 7, and an 83.33% chance that it won't. Now this is the point where most math guys turn off their brains and turn on their myopic vision blinders. They see and understand single event independent trials of one throw each, but they can't comprehend how SRR rates affect the groupings of more than one throw in a chain of outcomes.

For example:

- Everyone understands that a SRR 6 random roller will survive his first
point cycle roll about
*83%*of the time, while an SRR 8 shooter will survive his first point cycle roll about*87%*of the time. - On the second point cycle roll, there is a
*69%*chance that the SRR 6 guy will get past it, while the SRR 8 shooter has a*76%*chance of surviving. - By the third point cycle roll, the R R will survive this one
*57%*of the time, while the SRR 8 shooter will get past it*67%*of the time.

You can easily see where this is heading...

- Though the roll duration/bet survival rate for both shooters decays with each and every subsequent point cycle roll that they make, the rate of decline is quite different for each.
- By the time we get to the twelfth point cycle roll, there is a 1 in 9 (11%) chance that the random roller will get this far, but a 1 in 5 (20%) chance that the SRR 8 shooter will still have the dice.

Again, the SRR 8 shooter *might* unleash an incredibly long and
memorable hand that goes beyond twelve p c rolls; however there is an 80%
(4 in 5) chance that he ** won't**.

Many players *bet* like every hand will be ** THE**
hand of the day (or the century), but most times it isn't. That means that their
bets are often disconnected from the reality of their skills. Though their
skills are readily apparent, their ability to harvest a profit from their edge
over the house is severely impaired by the way that they

**.**

*bet their advantage*In other words...

While their dice influencing holds up its end of the advantage play bargain (by providing an edge over the casino), their BETTING fails to connect that skill with any level of consistent profit.

The use of Initial Steep Regressions helps a player bridge that skill/profit gap.

We've seen how the SINGLE event chances of a 7 showing up on any particular
roll is 16.67% for a random roller; 14.29% for an SRR 7 shooter; 12.5% for a
SRR 8 player and 11.11% for a SRR 9 Precision Shooter. Now, let's look at how
the ** Cumulative Odds** against a 7 showing up on a
roll to roll basis affects his chances of getting to a certain point cycle roll
count:

SRR 6 Survival Rate | Cumulative Odds against a 7 | SRR 7 Surv'l Rate | Cum. Odds against a 7 | SRR 8 Surv'l Rate | Cum. Odds against a 7 | SRR 9 Surv'l Rate | Cum. Odds against a 7 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

1 | 83.33% | 5:1 | 85.72% | 6:1 | 87.50% | 7:1 | 88.89% | 8:1 |

2 | 69.44% | 4.2:1 | 73.47% | 5.14:1 | 76.56% | 6.1:1 | 79.01% | 7.1:1 |

3 | 57.86% | 3.5:1 | 62.97% | 4.4:1 | 66.99% | 5.4:1 | 70.24% | 6.4:1 |

4 | 48.22% | 2.9:1 | 53.97% | 3.8:1 | 58.62% | 4.7:1 | 62.43% | 5.6:1 |

5 | 40.18% | 2.4:1 | 46.26% | 3.3:1 | 51.29% | 4.1:1 | 55.50% | 5.0:1 |

6 | 33.48% | 2.0:1 | 39.65% | 2.8:1 | 44.88% | 3.6:1 | 49.33% | 4.4:1 |

7 | 27.90% | 1.7:1 | 33.98% | 2.4:1 | 39.27% | 3.1:1 | 43.85% | 3.9:1 |

8 | 23.25% | 1.4:1 | 29.13% | 2.0:1 | 34.36% | 2.7:1 | 38.98% | 3.5:1 |

9 | 19.37% | 1.2:1 | 24.97% | 1.7:1 | 30.07% | 2.4:1 | 34.65% | 3.1:1 |

10 | 16.14% | 0.9:1 | 21.40% | 1.5:1 | 26.31% | 2.1:1 | 30.80% | 2.8:1 |

11 | 13.45% | 0.8:1 | 18.34% | 1.3:1 | 23.02% | 1.8:1 | 27.38% | 2.5:1 |

12 | 11.21% | 0.7:1 | 15.72% | 1.1:1 | 20.14% | 1.6:1 | 24.34% | 2.2:1 |

13 | 9.34% | 0.6:1 | 13.47% | 0.9:1 | 17.62% | 1.4:1 | 21.63% | 1.9:1 |

14 | 7.78% | 0.5:1 | 11.55% | 0.8:1 | 15.42% | 1.2:1 | 19.23% | 1.7:1 |

15 | 6.49% | 0.4:1 | 9.90% | 0.7:1 | 13.49% | 1.1:1 | 17.09% | 1.5:1 |

16 | 5.41% | 0.3:1 | 8.48% | 0.6:1 | 11.80% | 0.9:1 | 15.19% | 1.4:1 |

17 | 4.50% | 0.27:1 | 7.27% | 0.5:1 | 10.33% | 0.8:1 | 13.50% | 1.2:1 |

18 | 3.75% | 0.22:1 | 6.23% | 0.4:1 | 9.04% | 0.7:1 | 12.00% | 1.1:1 |

19 | 3.13% | 0.19:1 | 5.34% | 0.37:1 | 7.91% | 0.6:1 | 10.67% | 1.0:1 |

20 | 2.60% | 0.16:1 | 4.58% | 0.32:1 | 6.92% | 0.5:1 | 9.49% | 0.9:1 |

21 | 2.17% | 0.13:1 | 3.92% | 0.26:1 | 6.06% | 0.48:1 | 8.43% | 0.8:1 |

22 | 1.81% | 0.11:1 | 3.36% | 0.23:1 | 5.30% | 0.42:1 | 7.50% | 0.7:1 |

23 | 1.51% | 0.09:1 | 2.88% | 0.20:1 | 4.64% | 0.37:1 | 6.66% | 0.6:1 |

24 | 1.26% | 0.08:1 | 2.47% | 0.17:1 | 4.06% | 0.32:1 | 5.92% | 0.5:1 |

25 | 1.05% | 0.06:1 | 2.12% | 0.15:1 | 3.55% | 0.28:1 | 5.26% | 0.47:1 |

26 | 0.87% | 0.05:1 | 1.82% | 0.13:1 | 3.11% | 0.25:1 | 4.68% | 0.42:1 |

27 | 0.73% | 0.04:1 | 1.56% | 0.11:1 | 2.72% | 0.22:1 | 4.16% | 0.37:1 |

28 | 0.61% | 0.04:1 | 1.33% | 0.093:1 | 2.38% | 0.19:1 | 3.70% | 0.33:1 |

29 | 0.50% | 0.03:1 | 1.14% | 0.080:1 | 2.08% | 0.17:1 | 3.29% | 0.30:1 |

30 | 0.42% | 0.02:1 | 0.98% | 0.069:1 | 1.82% | 0.15:1 | 2.92% | 0.26:1 |

31 | 0.35% | 0.020:1 | 0.84% | 0.056:1 | 1.59% | 0.13:1 | 2.60% | 0.23:1 |

32 | 0.29% | 0.017:1 | 0.72% | 0.050:1 | 1.39% | 0.11:1 | 2.30% | 0.21:1 |

33 | 0.24% | 0.014:1 | 0.62% | 0.043:1 | 1.22% | 0.10:1 | 2.05% | 0.18:1 |

34 | 0.20% | 0.012:1 | 0.53% | 0.037:1 | 1.07% | 0.09:1 | 1.82% | 0.16:1 |

35 | 0.17% | 0.010:1 | 0.45% | 0.030:1 | 0.93% | 0.07:1 | 1.62% | 0.15:1 |

36 | 0.14% | 0.008:1 | 0.39% | 0.027:1 | 0.82% | 0.065:1 | 1.44% | 0.13:1 |

37 | 0.12% | 0.007:1 | 0.33% | 0.023:1 | 0.72% | 0.057:1 | 1.28% | 0.12:1 |

38 | 0.10% | 0.006:1 | 0.29% | 0.020:1 | 0.63% | 0.050:1 | 1.14% | 0.10:1 |

39 | 0.08% | 0.005:1 | 0.25% | 0.017:1 | 0.55% | 0.044:1 | 1.01% | 0.09:1 |

40 | 0.07% | 0.004:1 | 0.21% | 0.015:1 | 0.48% | 0.038:1 | 0.90% | 0.08:1 |

41 | 0.06% | 0.0035:1 | 0.18% | 0.013:1 | 0.42% | 0.034:1 | 0.80% | 0.07:1 |

42 | 0.05% | 0.0029:1 | 0.15% | 0.010:1 | 0.37% | 0.030:1 | 0.71% | 0.06:1 |

43 | 0.04% | 0.0024:1 | 0.13% | 0.009:1 | 0.32% | 0.025:1 | 0.63% | 0.057:1 |

44 | 0.03% | 0.0018:1 | 0.11% | 0.0076:1 | 0.28% | 0.022:1 | 0.56% | 0.050:1 |

45 | 0.02% | 0.0012:1 | 0.10% | 0.0070:1 | 0.25% | 0.020:1 | 0.50% | 0.045:1 |

46 | 0.01% | 0.0006:1 | 0.08% | 0.0055:1 | 0.22% | 0.018:1 | 0.44% | 0.040:1 |

47 | 0.008% | 0.00047:1 | 0.07% | 0.0049:1 | 0.19% | 0.015:1 | 0.39% | 0.035:1 |

48 | 0.007% | 0.00042:1 | 0.06% | 0.0042:1 | 0.17% | 0.014:1 | 0.35% | 0.032:1 |

49 | 0.006% | 0.00036:1 | 0.05% | 0.0034:1 | 0.15% | 0.012:1 | 0.31% | 0.028:1 |

50 | 0.005% | 0.00030:1 | 0.04% | 0.0029:1 | 0.13% | 0.010:1 | 0.28% | 0.025:1 |

ISR's offer an incredible opportunity to profit from the fattest, most frequently occurring part of the roll duration expectancy curve.

For example:

- A random roller has a 5:1 chance of rolling at least one non 7 during the point cycle portion of his hand, but his chances of two non 7 outcomes in a row drops to 4.2:1. When you think about the odds of him getting to the tenth point cycle roll, there is only a 0.9:1 chance that he'll actually get there.
- An SRR 8 shooter has a 7:1 chance of rolling at least one non 7 during the point cycle portion of his hand, while his chances of two non 7 outcomes in a row drops to 6.1:1. When you think about the odds of him getting to the tenth point cycle roll, there still a 2.1:1 chance that he'll make it.

So although there is only a moderate difference between those two shooters
surviving their *first* point cycle roll (83.33% vs. 87.50%); by the time
they get to their *tenth* roll there is an ever widening gap (16.14% vs.
26.31%).

Again, the chances of a 7 Out occurring on any given roll remains rock solid at 16.67% for the random roller, and 12.50% for the SRR 8 shooter; but each of those 1 in 6 (for the R R) and 1 in 8 (for the SRR 8 shooter) per roll 7's occurrence rates affects how long, on average, each player can expect to hold the dice.

That brings us to the ** cumulative odds of a non 7 roll occurring**;
for example

- A SRR 8 shooter is 270% more likely to throw a 20 roll hand than a random roller is, and 450% more likely to throw a 30 roll hand. By the time we get to a 40 roll expectancy; there is a 685% difference; and finally, a 2600% disparity between the expectancy of a SRR 6 and a SRR 8 shooter having a 50 roll point cycle hand.

Still though, you have to ask yourself; if that huge roll duration difference
is enough to *keep* ** your** bets at their high
starting value for the duration of each hand, or whether you should use the
fattest portion of the roll duration curve to lock in a profit before regressing
to a lower value as roll duration expectancy declines.

Take a look and decide for yourself

SRR 6 | SRR 7 | SRR 8 | SRR 9 | |
---|---|---|---|---|

1 | 8.3 out of 10 | 8.5 out of 10 | 8.7 out of 10 | 8.9 out of 10 |

2 | 7 out of 10 | 7 out of 10 | 7.6 out of 10 | 7.9 out of 10 |

3 | 6 out of 10 | 6 out of 10 | 7 out of 10 | 7 out of 10 |

4 | 5 out of 10 | 5 out of 10 | 6 out of 10 | 6 out of 10 |

5 | 4 out of 10 | 4.6 out of 10 | 5 out of 10 | 5.5 out of 10 |

6 | 3 out of 10 | 4 out of 10 | 4.5 out of 10 | 5 out of 10 |

7 | 3 out of 10 | 3.4 out of 10 | 4 out of 10 | 4.3 out of 10 |

8 | 2.3 out of 10 | 3 out of 10 | 3.4 out of 10 | 4 out of 10 |

9 | 2 out of 10 | 2.5 out of 10 | 3 out of 10 | 3.5 out of 10 |

10 | 16 out of 100 | 21 out of 100 | 26 out of 100 | 31 out of 100 |

11 | 13 out of 100 | 18 out of 100 | 23 out of 100 | 27 out of 100 |

12 | 11 out of 100 | 16 out of 100 | 20 out of 100 | 24 out of 100 |

13 | 9 out of 100 | 13 out of 100 | 18 out of 100 | 22 out of 100 |

14 | 8 out of 100 | 11 out of 100 | 15 out of 100 | 19 out of 100 |

15 | 6 out of 100 | 10 out of 100 | 13 out of 100 | 17 out of 100 |

16 | 5 out of 100 | 8 out of 100 | 12 out of 100 | 15 out of 100 |

17 | 4 out of 100 | 7 out of 100 | 10 out of 100 | 13 out of 100 |

18 | 3.8 out of 100 | 6 out of 100 | 9 out of 100 | 12 out of 100 |

19 | 3 out of 100 | 5 out of 100 | 8 out of 100 | 11 out of 100 |

20 | 2.6 out of 100 | 4.5 out of 100 | 7 out of 100 | 9 out of 100 |

21 | 2 out of 100 | 4 out of 100 | 6 out of 100 | 8 out of 100 |

22 | 18 out of 1000 | 33 out of 1000 | 53 out of 1000 | 75 out of 1000 |

23 | 15 out of 1000 | 29 out of 1000 | 46 out of 1000 | 67 out of 1000 |

24 | 13 out of 1000 | 25 out of 1000 | 40 out of 1000 | 59 out of 1000 |

25 | 10 out of 1000 | 21 out of 1000 | 36 out of 1000 | 53 out of 1000 |

26 | 9 out of 1000 | 18 out of 1000 | 31 out of 1000 | 47 out of 1000 |

27 | 7 out of 1000 | 16 out of 1000 | 27 out of 1000 | 42 out of 1000 |

28 | 6 out of 1000 | 13 out of 1000 | 24 out of 1000 | 37 out of 1000 |

29 | 5 out of 1000 | 11 out of 1000 | 20 out of 1000 | 33 out of 1000 |

30 | 4 out of 1000 | 10 out of 1000 | 18 out of 1000 | 29 out of 1000 |

31 | 3.5 out of 1000 | 8 out of 1000 | 16 out of 1000 | 26 out of 1000 |

32 | 3 out of 1000 | 7 out of 1000 | 14 out of 1000 | 23 out of 1000 |

33 | 2.4 out of 1000 | 6 out of 1000 | 12 out of 1000 | 20 out of 1000 |

34 | 20 out of 10000 | 53 out of 10000 | 110 out of 10000 | 182 out of 10000 |

35 | 17 out of 10000 | 45 out of 10000 | 93 out of 10000 | 162 out of 10000 |

36 | 14 out of 10000 | 39 out of 10000 | 82 out of 10000 | 144 out of 10000 |

37 | 12 out of 10000 | 33 out of 10000 | 72 out of 10000 | 128 out of 10000 |

38 | 10 out of 10000 | 29 out of 10000 | 63 out of 10000 | 114 out of 10000 |

39 | 8 out of 10000 | 25 out of 10000 | 55 out of 10000 | 101 out of 10000 |

40 | 7 out of 10000 | 21 out of 10000 | 48 out of 10000 | 90 out of 10000 |

41 | 6 out of 10000 | 18 out of 10000 | 42 out of 10000 | 80 out of 10000 |

42 | 5 out of 10000 | 15 out of 10000 | 37 out of 10000 | 71 out of 10000 |

43 | 4 out of 10000 | 13 out of 10000 | 32 out of 10000 | 63 out of 10000 |

44 | 3 out of 10000 | 11 out of 10000 | 28 out of 10000 | 56 out of 10000 |

45 | 2 out of 10000 | 10 out of 10000 | 25 out of 10000 | 50 out of 10000 |

46 | 1 out of 10000 | 8 out of 10000 | 22 out of 10000 | 44 out of 10000 |

47 | 80 out of 100000 | 700 out of 100000 | 1900 out of 100000 | 3900 out of 100000 |

48 | 70 out of 100000 | 600 out of 100000 | 1700 out of 100000 | 3500 out of 100000 |

49 | 60 out of 100000 | 500 out of 100000 | 1500 out of 100000 | 3100 out of 100000 |

50 | 50 out of 100000 | 400 out of 100000 | 1300 out of 100000 | 2800 out of 100000 |

One more thing that I should point out is that this chart does not include those hands where you will establish a multi Point hand that is interspersed with Come Out 7 winners. Rather, it is illustrative of the fact that it is difficult to have a 50 roll point cycle that is undisturbed by either a PL Point winner or a hand ending 7 Out loser.

## What To Do With What You've Got

One of the most basic elements of dice influencing that players fail to
understand is that their *short hands* will *always* outnumber
their long hands...and it is what they do with the *MAJORITY* of their
hands that determines just how much money they will earn from an average
non headline making session.

Anyone *can and should* make money off of 20, 30, 50 and 70 roll
hands; but how many players make ** consistent profit** off
of their 2, 3, 4 and 5 roll hands?

The simple truth about dice influencing is that regardless of how skilled you are, your point cycle will always contain a declining number of tosses when you look at your roll duration outcomes on a chart.

Savvy ISR dice influencers profitably exploit the fattest, most
frequently occurring portion of the roll duration curve, while flat bettors *
hope* to get far, far beyond that point.

Both Flat bettors and ISR bettors can make money off of their SRR 8 skills.
*The ISR user gets his profit more consistently and much earlier,
while the Flat bettor gets it less frequently and quite a bit later.*

But at the end of the day, how you profitably exploit your advantage over the house is entirely up to you.

**Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables and in Life.**

*Sincerely,*

*The Mad Professor*