## I Shouldn't Be Surprised, but I'm Still Amazed

I'll tell you quite frankly, I find it funny when a player says that he tried using a regression-style bet a time or two, but it didn't work out, so he decided to never try it again.

I wonder to myself if that same player abandoned Passline-wagers, Place-bets, Odds bets, and Come-bets just as quickly when they lost a time or two, but I know better than to ask.

- Without doubt, the cost of losing one big initial pre-regression bet can
cause a momentary twinge of pain, yet many players will endure countless
Place-bet losses and Come-bet losses for many times
*more*money over time, and gladly endure that with a smile. - When asked how much profit their current flat-bet Place-wagering or
Come-betting is making for them, they usually reply that it's not yet
net-profitable because it usually takes too many hits for those wagers to
consistently get over the profit-making hump
*despite*the multiple winning-hits that their dice-influencing skills currently yield. - When I point out that their current SRR justifies the use of an
appropriately sized Initial Steep Regression (ISR) that would turn their
mediocre break-even bet-results into consistently profitable ones; they simply
state that they can't afford to take one big loss; yet they'll continually let
the casino slowly chisel and erode their entire bankroll on
multi-hit-requirement bets
*despite*their obviously significant dice-influencing edge over the house.

Like I said, some people like to gamble, and some people like to win. In most
cases, *the difference between winning and losing, regardless of
whether you are the world's GREATEST Precision-Shooter or just slightly better
than a random-roller; STILL comes down to how you wager your money.*

- If you have an edge, you have to bet it in an exploitable way. For a modestly skilled dice-influencer, Steep Regressions offer a tangible way to turn some of the casinos money into YOUR money.

If you are steadily losing money with flat or pressed-up Place-bets or
Come-bets, yet you know that you almost always hit *at least one* of your
normal Place-bet wagers during most hands; then you can afford an ISR that is
tailored to suit *your* skill-level, *your* SRR-rate, *your*
bankroll limitations, *your* win-objectives and *your* personal
bet-comfort level.

Winning the *most money* for the *least risk* is what this
series is all about.

## The Iron-Cross

In a random outcome game, *the Anything-but-7 Iron Cross* wager
constitutes 83.33% of all possible outcomes. The Iron Cross (also known as the
*Umbrella* bet) covers all the numbers on the table (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9,
10, 11, and 12) except the 7. In this scenario, you would bet one unit each on
the 5, 6, 8 and Field.

In the ongoing You Can't Shine A Cow-Patty Or Can You? series, we look at the Iron Cross in a wholly unconventional money-winning way. Right now though, we are going to investigate whether the Iron Cross can benefit from the use an Initial Steep Regression.

There is:

- One way to make the 2, and in most casinos it pays out at 2:1 on the Field.
- Two ways to make the 3, and it pays even-money on the Field.
- Three ways to make a 4, and it pays even-money on the Field.
- Four ways to make a 5, and the Place-bet pays 7:5, but when it hits, your Field-bet loses so it has to be replaced.
- Five ways to make a 6, and the Place-bet pays 7:6, but when it hits, your Field-bet also loses so it has to be replaced.
- Five ways to make an 8, and the Place-bet pays 7:6, but when it hits, your Field-bet loses so it too has to be replaced.
- Four ways to make a 9, and it pays even-money on the Field.
- Three ways to make a 10, and it pays even-money on the Field.
- Two ways to make the 11, and it pays even-money on the Field.
- One way to make the 12, and in most casinos it pays out at either 2:1 or 3:1 on the Field. For this exercise, we'll calculate its winning payouts at 3:1.

Therefore, the Iron Cross wager constitutes 30-out-of-36 (83.33%) of all randomly-expected outcomes, and its average weighted-payout for a $5 ($22 Iron Cross) bettor is $4.10 per hit.

*Why is the payout less than even-money when you have so many winning
hits?*

Well, even though you have single-unit wagers on the 5, 6, and 8; their net-payout (after you replace your Field-bet which loses when the 5, 6, or 8 wins), is a paltry $2 for each non-Field outcome. Since the 5, 6, and 8 constitute fourteen out of your thirty winning Iron Cross outcomes, the steady replacement of Field-bets has a pernicious way of diluting your overall per-hit win-rate. Still though, let's see how that $4.10 average weighted-payout for the Iron Cross fairs in the hands of a dice-influencer.

As with every Rightside bet, how often the 7 appears is dictated by your skill-based SRR-rate.

Random SRR 6 | SRR 7 | SRR 8 | SRR 9 | |
---|---|---|---|---|

Appearance Ratio | 1-in-6 | 1-in-7 | 1-in-8 | 1-in-9 |

Probability | 16.67% | 14.29% | 12.5% | 11.11% |

7's-per-36 rolls | 6 | 5.14 | 4.5 | 4 |

Random SRR 6 | SRR 7 | SRR 8 | SRR 9 | |
---|---|---|---|---|

Iron Cross to Total Outcomes | 30 out of 36 | 30.86 | 31.5 | 32 out of 36 |

Per-Roll Probability | 83.33% | 85.72% | 87.50% | 88.89% |

Iron Cross to 7's Ratio | 5:1 | 6:1 | 7:1 | 8:1 |

## Anatomy Of An Iron-Cross Wager

Iron Cross Hits | Total Investment | Weighted Payout | Return on Investment | Profit |
---|---|---|---|---|

0 | $22 | $0 | 0% | (-$22.00) |

1 | - | $4.10 | 18.64% | (-$17.90) |

2 | - | $4.10 | 32.27% | (-$13.80) |

3 | - | $4.10 | 55.91% | (-$9.70) |

4 | - | $4.10 | 74.55% | (-$5.60) |

5 | - | $4.10 | 93.18% | (-$1.50) |

6 | - | $4.10 | 111.82% | $2.60 |

As with any other bet, a random-roller still has a greater chance of
7'ing-Out than he has of hitting enough Iron Cross bets for it to pay for itself
on a consistent basis. That is the nature of *ANY* randomly-based bets
that you make.

As a flat-betting advantage-player, it takes an average of *six*
winning same-bet hits before this $22 Iron Cross wager breaks into
profitability. Fortunately, in the hands of a modestly skilled dice-influencer,
the Iron Cross can be a steady profit contributor to your bankroll, even if you
do decide to strictly adhere to flat-bets. Take a look:

Expected Profit/Roll | Random SRR 6 | SRR 7 | SRR 8 | SRR 9 |
---|---|---|---|---|

Iron Cross-to-7's Ratio | 5:1 | 6:1 | 7:1 | 8:1 |

1 | $4.10 | $4.10 | $4.10 | $4.10 |

2 | $4.10 | $4.10 | $4.10 | $4.10 |

3 | $4.10 | $4.10 | $4.10 | $4.10 |

4 | $4.10 | $4.10 | $4.10 | $4.10 |

5 | $4.10 | $4.10 | $4.10 | $4.10 |

6 | - | $4.10 | $4.10 | $4.10 |

7 | - | - | $4.10 | $4.10 |

8 | - | - | - | $4.10 |

Total Expected Payout | $20.50 | $24.60 | $28.70 | $32.80 |

Remaining Wager | $22.00 | $22.00 | $22.00 | $22.00 |

Net-Profit | -$1.50 |
$2.60 | $6.70 | $10.80 |

Return-on-Investment | -6.82% |
11.82% | 30.45% | 49.09% |

As with Inside-Numbers, All-Across, Outside, and Even-Number global-type wagers; your Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio largely determines the average roll-duration of your Iron Cross bet too. Equally, your SRR also determines the bet-survival decay-rate of your validated edge against any given wager and therefore establishes the optimal time to regress your initially large bet into a smaller, lower-value one.

As we've seen in previous chapters, the per-roll decay-rate is different for each SRR-rate as well as for each type of global wager.

Iron Cross Hit-rate | Random SRR 6 | SRR 7 | SRR 8 | SRR 9 |
---|---|---|---|---|

1 | 83.33% | 85.72% | 87.50% | 88.89% |

2 | 69.44% | 73.47% | 76.56% | 79.01% |

3 | 57.86% | 62.97% | 66.99% | 70.24% |

4 | 48.22% | 53.97% | 58.62% | 62.43% |

5 | 40.18% | 46.26% | 51.29% | 55.50% |

6 | 33.48% | 39.65% | 44.88% | 49.33% |

7 | 27.90% | 33.98% | 39.27% | 43.85% |

8 | 23.25% | 29.13% | 34.36% | 38.98% |

9 | 19.37% | 24.97% | 30.07% | 34.65% |

10 | 16.14% | 21.40% | 26.31% | 30.80% |

11 | 13.45% | 18.34% | 23.02% | 27.38% |

12 | 11.21% | 15.72% | 20.14% | 24.34% |

## Your Mileage May Vary

As your Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio (SRR) *improves*, the appearance-rate
for the 7 *declines*.

- The less the 7 shows up within a given sampling-group, the more other
*non-7*outcomes will take its place. In the case of the Iron Cross, you get 100% efficiency with that reduced-7's replacement-rate simply because the Iron Cross includes*all*of the other possible non-7 outcomes. - Therefore, a
*reduced*7's appearance-rate means an*increased*winning-bet rate, and that holds especially true for such an all-encompassing wager like the Anything-but-7 Iron Cross. - To give your dice-shooting skills the best opportunity to prosper, you
should determine exactly which numbers are taking the place of those
diminishing 7's. Since the Iron Cross covers
*every*number except the 7; the beneficial impact of less 7's is much more direct for the I-C than it is for less-encompassing (less-inclusive, fewer covered numbers) types of global bets like the*Inside, Across, Outside*or*Even-Number*wagers. - In the samples that I've used in this series, I've evenly spread those replacement numbers across the entire outcome spectrum. As such, your expectancy-chart may look somewhat different than the generic ones here.

Although your Sevens-to-Rolls ratio is not the *only* dice-influencing
metric that matters, many dice-influencers often underutilize it when it comes
to shaping and structuring betting-methods and their related same-bet, press or
regress trigger-points.

*If you ignore or dismiss your SRR-rate; you are not only
overlooking your best indicator of average hand-duration, but you are also
rejecting the best gauge by which to successfully structure a consistently
productive multi-number betting-method.*

Intelligent advantage-players aren't so quick to turn their backs on such an important profit-patterning benchmark.

*If you ignore what your skill-based sevens-appearance-rate is
trying to tell you; then don't be surprised if consistently produceable profit
ignores you too.*

As we've discussed before:

- If we know how long our hand generally stays in positive-expectation territory for the Iron Cross wager; then we can easily determine a way in which to use an initially large "starting-level" wager, and then calculate when the ideal time to regress it down to a still productive Post Regression value is.
*Even though advantage-play Kelly-style flat-betting can produce a net-profit for us; in most cases, the use of ISR's substantially increase our same-skill profit-rate.*- The closer your SRR is to random; the faster you will have to regress your bets in order to have the greatest chance of making a profit during any given hand; and obviously the higher your SRR is, the more time (as measured by the number of point-cycle rolls) you will have in which to fully exploit your dice-influencing skills.

Therefore, the expected roll-duration hit-rate for the Iron Cross correctly factors in the modified sevens-appearance-rate for any given SRR; which in turn then produces the optimal regression trigger-point for each skill-level.

- Once we know where that positive-to-negative transition point is, we can use it as the trigger-point in which to optimally regress our large initial wager down to a lower level. In doing so, we concurrently lock-in a net-profit while still maintaining active but lower-value bets on the layout in the event that our hand-duration does exceed and survive that positive-to-negative transition point, as it often will.

## A Practical Comparison

Let's look at how this works when we compare flat-betting $110 on the Iron
Cross versus the use of an *initial* $110 Iron Cross wager that is *
steeply regressed* to a $22 Iron Cross at the appropriate *trigger-point*.
For greater clarity, a *$110 Iron Cross* is spread out as follows:

- $25 on the Field.
- $25 on the Place-bet 5.
- $30 on the Place-bet 6.
- $30 on the Place-bet 6.

A *$22 Iron Cross* is spread out as follows:

- $5 on the Field.
- $5 on the Place-bet 5.
- $6 on the Place-bet 6.
- $6 on the Place-bet 6.

Random SRR 6 | SRR 7 | SRR 8 | SRR 9 | |
---|---|---|---|---|

Iron Cross-to-7's Ratio | 5:1 | 6:1 | 7:1 | 8:1 |

Flat Bet | $110.00 | $110.00 | $110.00 | $110.00 |

Single-hit Weighted-Payout | $20.50 | $20.50 | $20.50 | $20.50 |

Expected Total Payout | $102.50 | $123.00 | $143.50 | $164.00 |

Remaining Exposed Wagers | $110.00 | $110.00 | $110.00 | $110.00 |

Net-Profit | -$7.50 |
$13.00 | $33.50 | $54.00 |

Return-on-Investment | -6.8% |
11.8% | 30.5% | 49.1% |

I deleted any further references to SRR-6 random betting in the following charts simply because it always remains in negative-expectation territory.

Using an Initial Steep Regression (ISR) permits even the most modestly skilled dice-influencer to achieve a net-profit much sooner and on a much more consistent basis than if he is making comparably spread flat Kelly-style bets.

The following ISR chart utilizes the optimum SRR-based trigger-point at which the Large-bet-to-Small-bet regression should take place.

SRR 7 | SRR 8 | SRR 9 | |
---|---|---|---|

Iron Cross-to-7's Ratio | 6:1 | 7:1 | 8:1 |

Initial Large Bet | $110.00 | $110.00 | $110.00 |

Subsequent Small Bet |
$22.00 | $22.00 | $22.00 |

1^{st} Hit |
$20.50 | $20.50 | $20.50 |

2^{nd} Hit |
$20.50 | $20.50 | $20.50 |

3^{rd} Hit |
Post Regression $2.58 Weighted payout | $20.50 | $20.50 |

4^{th} Hit |
- | Post Regression $2.40 Weighted payout | $20.50 |

5^{th} Hit |
- | - | Post Regression $2.28 Weighted payout |

Total Expected Payout | $43.58 | $63.90 | $84.28 |

Remaining Exposed Wagers | $22.00 | $22.00 | $22.00 |

Net-Profit per-Hand | $21.58 | $41.90 | $62.28 |

Return-on- Investment | 19.62% | 38.09% | 56.62% |

Here's a summarized comparison between flat-betting the Iron Cross versus the use of an Initial Steep Regression:

SRR 7 | SRR 8 | SRR 9 | |
---|---|---|---|

$110 Iron Cross Flat-bet Net-Profit/Hand | $13.00 | $33.50 | $54.00 |

$110 Iron Cross Regressed to $22 Iron Cross Profit/Hand | $21.58 | $41.90 | $62.28 |

$-Difference | $8.58 | $8.40 | $8.28 |

Increased Return-on-Investment | 37.8% | 20% | 13.3% |

## Using Different Steepness Ratios

- The steeper the regression-ratio is;
.*the higher, earlier and more often a net-profit will be secured* - The shallower the regression-ratio is;
*the less frequent and lower your net-profit will be.*

Take a look at how various steepness ratios affect your profitability.

Ratio | 2:1 | 3:1 | 4:1 | 5:1 | 10:1 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Initial Large Bet | $44 | $66 | $88 | $110 | $220 |

Subsequent Small Bet |
$22 | $22 | $22 | $22 | $22 |

1^{st} Hit |
Weighted Value $8.20 | Weighted Value $12.30 | Weighted Value $16.40 | Weighted Value $20.50 | Weighted Value $41.00 |

2^{nd} Hit |
$8.20 | $12.30 | $16.40 | $20.50 | $41.00 |

3^{rd} Hit |
Post Regression $2.58 Weighted payout | Post Regression $2.58 Weighted payout | Post Regression $2.58 Weighted payout | Post Regression $2.58 Weighted payout | Post Regression $2.58 Weighted payout |

Total Expected Payout | $18.98 | $27.18 | $35.85 | $43.58 | $84.58 |

Remaining Exposed Wagers | $22.00 | $22.00 | $22.00 | $22.00 | $22.00 |

Net-Profit | -$3.02 |
$5.18 | $13.38 | $21.58 | $62.58 |

Return-on- Investment | -6.86% |
7.85% | 15.20% | 19.62% | 28.45% |

The risk of using *too shallow* of a regression demonstrates itself
with the SRR-7 shooter who uses an initial $44 Iron Cross that gets regressed
down to a $22 I-C. However, by simply increasing his ISR steepness-ratio from
2:1 to 3:1, he immediately regains profitability. Once again, we see how
critically important it is to structure our bets properly.

*"Better that random" does not automatically mean better profit.*

*Having an edge over the house does NOT mean that money will start
to automatically flow in our direction. We have to intentionally divert it that
way through the use of properly structured wagers.*

As your SRR-rate improves, so too does your return on investment, even when you are using a shallow 2:1 regression ratio.

Ratio | 2:1 | 3:1 | 4:1 | 5:1 | 10:1 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Initial Large Bet | $44 | $66 | $88 | $110 | $220 |

Subsequent Small Bet |
$22 | $22 | $22 | $22 | $22 |

1^{st} Hit |
Weighted Value $8.20 | Weighted Value $12.30 | Weighted Value $16.40 | Weighted Value $20.50 | Weighted Value $41.00 |

2^{nd} Hit |
$8.20 | $12.30 | $16.40 | $20.50 | $41.00 |

3^{rd} Hit |
$8.20 | $12.30 | $16.40 | $20.50 | $41.00 |

4^{th} Hit |
Post Regression $2.40 Weighted payout | Post Regression $2.40 Weighted payout | Post Regression $2.40 Weighted payout | Post Regression $2.40 Weighted payout | Post Regression $2.40 Weighted payout |

Total Expected Payout | $27.00 | $39.30 | $51.60 | $63.90 | $125.40 |

Remaining Exposed Wagers | $22.00 | $22.00 | $22.00 | $22.00 | $22.00 |

Net-Profit | $5.00 | $17.30 | $29.60 | $41.90 | $103.40 |

Return-on- Investment | 11.36% | 26.21% | 33.37% | 38.09% | 47.00% |

Again, as your SRR improves over random, the higher your rate of return will be. Obviously, the better funded your session bankroll is, the better you'll be able to take full advantage of your current dice-influencing skills.

It is important to note that each SRR-level forces a different bet-reduction
trigger-point. While the SRR-7 shooter has to immediately regress his large
initial bet after just *two* hits; the SRR-8 dice-influencer can
reasonably keep them up at their initial large size for the first *three*
point-cycle rolls before needing to steeply regress them. In the case of a SRR-9
shooter using the Iron Cross bet that we've been discussing today, he'll
generally get the benefit of *four* pre-regression hits before optimally
reducing his bet-exposure.

Ratio | 2:1 | 3:1 | 4:1 | 5:1 | 10:1 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Initial Large Bet | $44 | $66 | $88 | $110 | $220 |

Subsequent Small Bet |
$22 | $22 | $22 | $22 | $22 |

1^{st} Hit |
Weighted Value $8.20 | Weighted Value $12.30 | Weighted Value $16.40 | Weighted Value $20.50 | Weighted Value $41.00 |

2^{nd} Hit |
$8.20 | $12.30 | $16.40 | $20.50 | $41.00 |

3^{rd} Hit |
$8.20 | $12.30 | $16.40 | $20.50 | $41.00 |

4^{th} Hit |
$8.20 | $12.30 | $16.40 | $20.50 | $41.00 |

5^{th} Hit |
Post Regression $2.28 Weighted payout | Post Regression $2.28 Weighted payout | Post Regression $2.28 Weighted payout | Post Regression $2.28 Weighted payout | Post Regression $2.28 Weighted payout |

Total Expected Payout | $35.08 | $51.48 | $67.88 | $84.28 | $166.28 |

Remaining Exposed Wagers | $22.00 | $22.00 | $22.00 | $22.00 | $22.00 |

Net-Profit | $13.08 | $29.48 | $45.88 | $62.28 | $144.28 |

Return-on- Investment | 29.73% | 44.67% | 52.14% | 56.62% | 65.58% |

**Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables and in Life.**

*Sincerely,*

*The Mad Professor*