Think about your current session buy-in and about the things that you do with that money.
- Some of your buy-in is dedicated to betting on random-rollers.
- Some of your money is dedicated to betting on your own validated advantage-play bets and perhaps on other dice-influencers and rhythm-rollers.
- Some of your buy-in is dedicated to tips for the cocktail waitress and tokes for the crew.
When you start to think about the amount of money that you spend on everything else EXCEPT your own advantaged shooting; it soon becomes apparent why it is so difficult to make money off of this game even when you have a huge edge over the house.
We’ve talked many times about how you should add up the total amount of wagers that you bet on random-rollers during just one lap around the table versus how much you bet on yourself during the same period, to get a better handle on how much of your bankroll you are actually exposing to negative-expectancy versus how much you are willing to bet on pos-ex wagers.
For most players, that is the easiest way to show WHY they are often emerging from their casino action without a net-profit despite their validated edge over the house.
Many frustrated dice-influencers who are on the cusp of advantage-play success often unknowingly create an inordinate amount of their own frustration by flitting from one "holy grail" betting-method to the next...never settling on one, and never sitting down long enough to actually determine which bets their current skills are strongest on before they are off on yet another "I'm looking for the perfect will-not-fail random-roller betting-method" expedition.
If they do take the time to figure out where their strongest advantage is, they most times get distracted along the way and lose sight of the whole purpose behind advantage-play dice-influencing in what could probably be characterized as the gamblers version of Attention Deficiency Hyperactivity Disorder.
Losing our sense of purpose, our sense of direction, and losing sight of our objectives usually means losing sight of our money too.
While we agree that an insufficient bankroll means that we have to compromise the VALUE of the advantage-play bets that we make; it shouldn't mean that we should bet on even less favorable bets (or negative-expectation wagers) in the hopes that those much lower EV (or negative EV) bets will somehow build up our bankroll to a point where we CAN finally make our highest-edge wagers.
That is the same kind of thinking that has driven some of the highest skilled player from this game. Their shooting-skills were fan-friggin-tastic, but their betting-skills sucked big, sucked large, and ultimately sucked them right out of the casinos to pursue, as Heavy would say, "Uh, gardening and umm coaching kids soccer."
All I'm saying is that the more our advantage-play wagers venture off-path and into lower or negative EV bets, and the more random betting that we put our money on; the longer it will take to reach our profit objectives...and for some players that will mean having to give up this game (as directed by either their spouse, their conscience, their banker, or by court-appointed receiver) LONG before they get there...and it simply doesn't have to be that way.
When you look at the percentage of your buy-in that is REALLY dedicated to validated advantage-play; you may discover why most of your potential profit remains hypothetical instead of actual.
Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.