It’s almost always a safe bet to assume that any new bets that are offered by casinos these day will have a pretty strong negative-expectation edge against the random-roller…and the 4-Rolls-No-7 is no exception…unless you happen to be a dice-influencer with even a slight amount of de-randomizing skill.
How minimal that skill has to be to turn the 4-R-No-7 into a positive-expectation bet may actually surprise you; but first let’s cover the basics:
The 4-Rolls-No-7 requires a bet to be made at the start of a hand where you wager that the shooter will be able to throw four rolls before a 7 shows up.
~If the shooter successfully throws four rolls without a 7; then your wager is paid even-money (1:1) and the hand continues as normal.
~If the shooter doesn’t throw four rolls before the 7 shows up; then the bet loses.
Though the modest even-money (1:1) payoff (if you throw four rolls without a 7) initially looks meager; it can actually provide a very steady and reliable stream of income.
The random-roller house-edge against the 4-Rolls-No-7 bet is -3.55%, but let’s see how it fairs in the hands of dice-influencers with various skill levels.
How I Bet the 4-Rolls-No-7 wager
Since you have to make your 4-Rolls-No-7 wager before your first throw, it obviously impacts any planned Game-Within-A-Game come-out strategy that you might have been contemplating.
To counter-balance that and to offset the expected income that I’d make off of my usual C-O Horn or World G-W-A-G action, my base wager on the 4-R-No-7 is usually a minimum of double or triple what my base Passline wager is, but most times it is quadruple or sextuple that amount.
For example, if the flat-portion of my PL-bet is $25; then I’ll bet at least $50 or $75, but usually $100 or $150 on the 4-Rolls-No-7 wager.
Something to Keep in Mind:
Considering how frequently you'll be able to collect from a particular bet, as well as what it pays when it does hit; is certainly a great way to appraise any wager no matter what your current skill-level is.
When players first consider the 4-Rolls-No-7 bet and its -3.55% house-edge (5.178 losing bets for every 4.822 winning bets); many consider it to be a fairly big -EV hurdle to overcome; yet those same bettors feel totally comfortable tackling a higher-vig wager like the Place-bet 5 or 9.
What they almost always fail to consider is that there’s only a 40% random-expectancy chance of hitting either a 5 or 9 and a 60% chance of losing it (for example, four ways to win a Place-bet-5 and six ways for a 7-Out to lose it); while there is a 48.22% chance of throwing four rolls without a 7 and a 51.78% chance of not being able to do it.
Even when you factor in the 7:5 payout for a Place-bet 5 or 9 (for example four winning $7 payouts minus six losing $5 7-Outs…$28 in gross-winning minus $30 in gross-losses = -$2 net loss) compared to the 4-R-No-7's even-money (1:1) payout; it’s still a better bet.
Frankly, if the 4-Rolls-No-7 bet was offered in more casinos, I’d be chasing this one all over the country and hammering it to near each houses respective comfort-level limits instead of restricting it to just the Sam’s Town-sisters.
For dice-influencers with an SRR-rate of 6.4 or better, the rate-of-return for this wager is obviously quite strong and in my view the 4-Rolls-No-7 is DEFINITELY a Worthwhile Bet.
Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
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