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Being An Advantage-Player Starts with Knowing What Your Real-World Advantage Is

Knowing what your real-world advantage is, means knowing how big, how durable, and how sustainable your specific advantage is over each and every bet that you make.

In other words, if you don’t know what your real-world advantage is over each of the bets that you make; then how do you know if your current bets are fully and properly exploiting your edge over the house?

Okay maybe we can simplify this. How about we group all of your bets together and ask:
How much net-profit does your current betting-regimen produce on a per-hand basis?

I’m not talking about knowing how much $44-Inside is supposed to pay for two hits and down, nor am I talking about how much money your “Always-stack-PL-wins-on-the-Come-Out-but-rarely-take-full-Odds” strategy is supposed to take you to the Promised Land; instead, I’m talking about the net-profit that you really earn when you add up ALL of your wins and losses on ALL of your bets and divide that net-amount into ALL of the hands that you throw.

That’s your average net-profit or net-loss per hand…

and frankly if you don’t know that figure, then you have no way of knowing if your current advantaged bets are properly utilizing your current dice-influencing skills or what your actual return-on-investment really is.

An advantage-player knows how much net-profit his current betting-regimen produces on an averaged per-hand basis…but a gambler almost never does.
Let me ask you another question:

If you were offered an averaged 15% return-on-investment for every dollar that you wagered on a bet ($1.15 return for every $1.00 wagered per hand); would you take it?

Is that a higher or lower ROI than you are making now?

Would you be able to tell right away whether that was a good return-on-investment or whether that was a sub-optimal offering based on your current skills?

If you don’t know what your D-I skills produce when you tally up the money that you wager and the money that those wagers actually return; then you can’t tell whether your betting-regimen needs improvement or if in fact it is producing at or near peak-efficiency.

If you notice, I’m not talking about the SIZE of your wagers; instead I’m talking about the amount of net profit they return to you on average (when you add up all of your wins and losses on all of your bets and divide that net-amount into all of the hands that you throw).

So whether you are a red-chip bettor that spreads $20 in total action or a black-chipper who spreads a couple of thousand per hand; the question is still the same:

What kind of return-on-investment does your current betting-regimen produce on a per-hand basis?

Let me use that 15% ROI as an example:

~If you bet $5 on the Passline with 3x, 4x, 5x-Odds plus $44-Inside; that’s a total point-cycle 7-exposure value of $69. A 15% ROI would give you an average net-profit of +$10.35 after returning your original $69 investment.

~If you normally bet $10 on the PL with full-Odds, plus $32-Across, as well as a buck each on the Hardways and a couple of $1 hop-bets; your average point-cycle 7-exposure would be about $88 per-hand, so a 15% ROI would provide around $13.00 in profit on top of the full return of your original $88 investment.

~Let’s say you normally wager $5 on the Passline and take double (2x) Odds, plus you wager $22-Inside for one-hit-then-down. You are pretty sure that you make an average net-profit of around $10.00 a hand because after ten hands or so, you usually emerge with a net-profit (from your own shooting) of around $100. Fair enough, that would mean your current bets are providing a net-positive 27% return ($10 per-hand in net-profit on an average 7-exposure amount of $37 in bets)…in which case, it kicks the crap out of the 15% ROI that was offered.

Now obviously, you have to be brutally honest with yourself when you do this kind of reckoning (in terms of including all of the bets that you make on yourself even if they are only 'on' for one roll), and you have to include all of the hands that you throw including the Point-then-7-out ones as well as the mini-mega headline-makers.

Even more obvious though, is the fact that if you don’t honestly know how much net-profit your current betting-regimen genuinely produces on an averaged per-hand basis; then you don’t really know what your real-world advantage is, nor do you know if your current bets are fully and properly exploiting the edge that you've worked so hard to develop.

It’s not good enough to guess.

GUESSING is for random gamblers…KNOWING is for advantage-players.

When you know what your real-world edge is, you can easily determine if you are on the right path and whether or not your current bets are properly matched to fully exploit your current skills.

If you don't know or don't want to know; then chances are you don't want to know FOR A REASON.

If you want to delve much deeper into how to increase the return-on-investment (ROI) that you get from your current precision-shooting abilities and how to bring it up to a level that justifies all of the time that you have put into building those skills; but first you have to determine how much your current bets are really generating in terms of average net-profit per hand.

The more random-rollers there are at your table and the longer it takes for the dice to cycle back around to you; the higher the risk that you'll be taking some R-R losses with each successive lap of the dice.

Further complicating matters, is if your next hand turns out to be a not-so-good one; the urge to try to 'make it back' on subsequent random betting is even higher than normal, and the temptation ends up being too great for most players to resist.

I don't have to tell you what usually happens from there on out.

It is critical to know what your current skills/current bets are producing on that kind of each-time-the-dice-come-around level.

It not only helps gauge your results on a dollars-bet/dollars-won basis, but it also separates your own personal D-I efforts from any other bankroll-drains you submit to while in the casino.

In other words, if you determine how much money you usually make from each of your own turns with the dice; then you may be more careful about squandering any of that money when you look at the overall net-earnings that you actually leave the casino with.

In addition to all of that; determining your average per-hand profit brings an undeniable real-world perspective to your precision-shooting earnings.

For example, let's say you earn an average of $15 profit from every hand that you throw. On the face of it, that's doesn't seem like much money...and frankly it's not...so it's easy for most players to dismiss that level of D-I earnings and simply lose it back to the casino through subsequent random-roller betting.

Even if you get to shoot three times an hour, that only equates to $45...so again, most players are dismissive of what their talents are producing, and as a result it's difficult for them to treat their dice-influencing revenue with the respect it deserves.

However, when you equate $45 per hour to the real-world, it starts to take on a whole new meaning.

That is, while $45 an hour isn't considered to be a princely sum by any means; it is still a little higher than most people earn today, so it takes on a comparative value in terms of contrasting and balancing it against your own real-world, real job situation.

When players do that, they quickly realize that their seemingly modest per-hand earnings probably shouldn't be dismissed in such a casual and off-handed way...yet most player who don't go to the trouble of figuring it out, end up being net-losers despite of their considerable but under-appreciated D-I talents.

The best part of that situation is if that same player was able to raise his bet-levels by one-third, he'd immediately elevate his per-hand average to $20...and his average earn-rate would rise to $60 per-hour.

Likewise, if he was able to squeeze in one additional self-thrown hand per hour at a less-crowded table, he'd again raise his hourly earn-rate to $60.

A combination of those two steps would increase his earnings to around $80 per hour. Again, you're not going to get rich at those levels, but it does keep the dog-food bowl full.

When the modestly-skilled dice-influencer starts to take the game seriously, they soon realize that playing at crowded, low-minimum tables is probably costing them money in terms of lost profit-making opportunities and squandered chances to throw de-randomized dice (instead of continually waiting for randomly-thrown dice to cycle back around to them).

Though it's important to realize that every hand you throw will not produce a net-profit; you have to look at the overall per-hand profit that your D-I skills produce on average, and then use that figure as the benchmark to decide whether you should be seeking out even more shooting opportunities, and whether it's time to raise your current bet-levels to more closely match your current skills.

Being an Advantage-Player starts with KNOWING what your real-world advantage REALLY is.

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables...and in Life.

The Mad Professor


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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on February 8, 2007 10:48 AM.

The previous post in this blog was Mad Professor's Mini-Table Craps Tour with the Vegas Ghost - Part 7.

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