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Regression Avoids Depression - Part 21

Let me ask you something.

How long has it been since your dice-influencing winnings actually doubled your total gaming bankroll?

Let's say that you would give up dice-influencing altogether if you lost a total of $3000; how long has it been since your dice-influencing winnings actually increased your I-will-give-up-craps-if-I-lose-x-amount of total gaming bankroll by more than double?

If that's too tough of a question or if you refuse to consider the amount of money that you are continually feeding in to repeatedly prop up your sessional buy-ins from an undefined total bankroll; then let me ask you this:

When was the last time your precision-shooting winnings actually justified an increase in the basic advantage-play bets that you currently spread on the table?

That is, when did your total winnings, not just your I'm-on-a-good-roll-so-I'll-press-up-my-bets-with-some-of-my-winnings,justify an increase in the value of your basic advantage-play bets?

I ask you all of this because today I'm going to show you how long it will generally take for you to DOUBLE an optimally-sized bankroll if you based your positive-expectation bets strictly on your CURRENT shooting skills.

When was the last time someone did THAT for you (that didn't include a crazy "parlay it to the moon stack it, never rack it until you reach the table-max" method)?

Advantage-play dice-influencing is all about taking the skills that you currently have, and using them to extract a predictable profit on the positive-expectation wagers that you make.

If you have the skill (and frankly, your actual D-I abilities don't have to be much above random); and you make the bets that are sized to your actual advantage (no matter how small it is); then you can reasonably determine approximately how long it will generally take for you to double your bankroll.

Now obviously I'm not going to factor in any of the frivolous bets where you waste your money on random-rollers and unqualified hunches; that's between you, your conscience, and the day-job that you need to keep in order to continually feed what would otherwise be an excellent second source of income. Rather, I'm going to show you how, if you actually allowed yourself to do it, that it would take for you to double an optimally-sized bankroll based entirely on your current skills and NOT on a someday-in-the-improbable-lottery-winning-future fantasy.

Prepare To Make More Money

My advantage-play philosophy is all about extracting a net-profit from as many of our current hands as possible without unduly restraining our overall earnings-power nor unduly endangering our bankroll.

That simply means that I like to make as much money with as little risk as possible. It also means that I understand the need to focus my money on the wagers that I am most likely to collect from during the point-cycle.

I'll remind you again that it is important that you start to think about your bets in relation not only to the size of the buy-in money that you bring to the table (that's your "session buy-in"), but more importantly how much money your current skill-level (when combined with your intended wagers) demand and require in terms of a reasonable overall bankroll to ensure a low-risk shot at reasonable profit-growth and bankroll doubling.

Now although you may choose not to apply optimally-sized wagers to your dice-influencing skills at the present time; there's nothing to say that you won't be able to work your way up to making optimally-sized bets over a reasonable period of time; it's just that it will obviously take much, much longer to get there.

The following is a compilation, by SRR-rate, for each of the global bets that we've been discussing in this series; so you may want to print out the table that pertains to your current SRR skill-level for a quick in-casino reference guide.

I'll also mention again that these advantaged-plays are based on regressing your bets at the optimal ISR trigger-point, and obviously if you venture off-path with the trigger-point (thereby sub-optimally regressing your bets); then your profit-mileage is going to suffer a substantial penalty.

SRR-7 Optimal Bankroll for each of these Initial Steep Regression wagers
Steepness Ratio 2:1 3:1 4:1 5:1 10:1
Inside $9167 $13,750 $18,334 $22,917 $45,833
Across $15,238 $22,857 $30,476 $38,095 $76,190
Outside $12,121 $18,182 $24,242 $30,303 $60,606
Even $10,232 $15,349 $20,465 $25,581 $51,162
Iron Cross $11,000 $16,500 $22,000 $27,500 $55,000
6 & 8 $4138 $6207 $8276 $10,345 $20,690
5 & 9 $5000 $7500 $10,000 $12,500 $25,000
4 & 10 $7692 $11,538 $15,385 $19,230 $38,461
SRR-8 Optimal Bankroll for each of these Initial Steep Regression wagers
Steepness Ratio 2:1 3:1 4:1 5:1 10:1
Inside $3520 $5280 $7040 $8800 $17,600
Across $5470 $8421 $10,940 $13,675 $27,350
Outside $3922 $5882 $7843 $9804 $19,608
Even $3760 $5641 $7521 $9401 $18,803
Iron Cross $3928 $5893 $7857 $9821 $19,643
6 & 8 $1621 $2432 $3243 $4054 $8108
5 & 9 $1786 $2679 $3571 $4464 $8928
4 & 10 $2174 $3261 $4348 $5435 $10,870
SRR-9 Optimal Bankroll for each of these Initial Steep Regression wagers
Steepness Ratio 2:1 3:1 4:1 5:1 10:1
Inside $2065 $3098 $4131 $5164 $10,329
Across $3106 $4660 $6213 $7767 $15,534
Outside $2162 $3243 $4324 $5405 $10,810
Even $2115 $3173 $4230 $5288 $10,577
Iron Cross $2189 $3283 $4378 $5473 $10,945
6 & 8 $941 $1412 $1882 $2353 $4706
5 & 9 $990 $1485 $1980 $2475 $4950
4 & 10 $1198 $1796 $2395 $2994 $5988

Okay, let's take a slightly different look at how the recommended amount of total bankroll goes down as your SRR-rate go up.

Optimal Bankroll for Steep Regression Betting
ISR Steepness Ratio 2:1 3:1 4:1 5:1 10:1
Inside
SRR-7 $9167 $13,750 $18,334 $22,917 $45,833
SRR-8 $3520 $5280 $7040 $8800 $17,600
SRR-9 $2065 $3098 $4131 $5164 $10,329
Across
SRR-7 $15,238 $22,857 $30,476 $38,095 $76,190
SRR-8 $5470 $8421 $10,940 $13,675 $27,350
SRR-9 $3106 $4660 $6213 $7767 $15,534
Outside
SRR-7 $12,121 $18,182 $24,242 $30,303 $60,606
SRR-8 $3922 $5882 $7843 $9804 $19,608
SRR-9 $2162 $3243 $4324 $5405 $10,810
Even
SRR-7 $10,232 $15,349 $20,465 $25,581 $51,162
SRR-8 $3760 $5641 $7521 $9401 $18,803
SRR-9 $2115 $3173 $4230 $5288 $10,577
Iron Cross
SRR-7 $11,000 $16,500 $22,000 $27,500 $55,000
SRR-8 $3928 $5893 $7857 $9821 $19,643
SRR-9 $2189 $3283 $4378 $5473 $10,945
6 & 8
SRR-7 $4138 $6207 $8276 $10,345 $20,690
SRR-8 $1621 $2432 $3243 $4054 $8108
SRR-9 $941 $1412 $1882 $2353 $4706
5 & 9
SRR-7 $5000 $7500 $10,000 $12,500 $25,000
SRR-8 $1786 $2679 $3571 $4464 $8928
SRR-9 $990 $1485 $1980 $2475 $4950
4 & 10
SRR-7 $7692 $11,538 $15,385 $19,230 $38,461
SRR-8 $2174 $3261 $4348 $5435 $10,870
SRR-9 $1198 $1796 $2395 $2994 $5988

How Many Hands To Double My Bankroll?

Now that we know how big of an overall bankroll we would ideally have when we are making these sorts of multi-number, multi-hit global-bets; let's consider how quickly we can double our starting bankroll.

Hands Required to Double Bankroll when Optimal ISR Trigger-Point and Optimal Total Bankroll is used
Bet-Type SSR-7 SSR-8 SSR-9
Inside
Hands to Double recommended bankroll 2303 hands 196 hands 83 hands
Across
Hands to Double recommended bankroll 1455 hands 302 hands 120 hands
Outside
Hands to Double recommended bankroll 2484 hands 320 hands 80 hands
Even
Hands to Double recommended bankroll 1987 hands 178 hands 72 hands
Iron Cross
Hands to Double recommended bankroll 2546 hands 469 hands 176 hands
6 & 8
Hands to Double recommended bankroll 326 hands 82 hands 35 hands
5 & 9
Hands to Double recommended bankroll 796 hands 89 hands 36 hands
4 & 10
Hands to Double recommended bankroll 810 hands 112 hands 31 hands

You'll notice that some global-bets provide bankroll-doubling much quicker than other types even though they are still within the same SRR skill-rate. This is because the Initial Steep Regression (ISR) trigger-point (where the large initial wager is reduced to a smaller subsequent wager) varies amongst these wagers. As a result, some global-bets have a higher pre-regression hit-rate than others.

For example:

  1. An SRR-7 shooter betting the Inside (5, 6, 8, and 9) and optimally regressing his bets after just one paying hit; will require about 2300 hands in order to double his above-noted bankroll.
  2. Meanwhile the same shooter using the All-Across (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, and 10) wager will only require just under 1500 advantage-play hands to accomplish the same thing since the All-Across wager at this skill-level permits two hits at the initial pre-regression large-wager before being optimally reduced to a smaller one; while the Inside-bet demands an optimal regression after just one hit for the SRR-7 skill-level.
  3. Likewise, the SRR-8 shooter who bets the Anything-But-7 Iron Cross regression will need to throw about 470 hands to double his recommended bankroll, but will only require about 80 hands to double his money if he sticks to a less-encompassing wager like Place-betting the 6 and 8.
  4. The added benefit for that shooter using an ISR on the Place-bet 6 & 8, is that he can also afford to start with a much smaller overall bankroll than that required by the Iron Cross wager even though his current skill-level is exactly the same no matter what he bets on.
  5. In this case he'd want to have a total gaming bankroll of just $1600 in order to properly take advantage of his shooting skills for a 2:1 regression on the Place-bet 6 and 8 ($12 each on the 6 and 8, regressed down to $6 each); but he'd need an optimal starting bankroll of almost $4000 if he wanted to do the same 2:1 regression on the Iron Cross ($44 I-C regressed down to $22 I-C).

Why Require So Much of a Total Bankroll If We Can Double Our Money So Quickly?

When we look at combining our current dice-influencing talents with an Initial Steep Regression, we soon discover just how quickly it can double our bankroll if we trigger the bet-regression at the optimal time but only if we are properly financed to begin with.

The reason it is critically important to have an adequately-sized bankroll in the first place, is because not every hand we throw will be a winner, and there could very well be periods when we make major total gaming bankroll draw-downs.

If you try to make do with less, you could possibly succeed, but more likely you'll go down the same path of ruin that so many skilled-but-under-funded players before you ventured.

When you have a validated edge over the house, it will prevail, but you have to have the sufficient funds in order to weather the volatility swings that inevitably occur along the way.

You can be a crack-shot with the dice, but if you don't have the bankroll-ammo; you aren't likely going to hit ANY of your win-targets.

Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables and in Life.

Sincerely,

The Mad Professor

Copyright © 2006

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on February 20, 2007 3:57 AM.

The previous post in this blog was The Toss Flight.

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