« Current Practice…Future Profitability - Part 5 | Main | Mad Professor's Mini-Table Craps Tour with the Vegas Ghost - Part 6 »

Shooting From The Don’ts…A Journey of Opportunity - Part 6

Influencing ONE Roll Rather Than EVERY Roll

For me, one of the strongest attractions about Darkside-shooting is that you don’t need to be nearly as good of a dice-influencer in order to affect ONE roll as you do if you want to impact EVERY roll.

Of course, the same thing could be said for Rightside Point-shooting where you only have a Passline wager backed up with Odds…and no other active bets.  In either context, you are looking to influence just ONE number in order to win.

If you have a little bit of influence over the dice, then the number where that persuasion can bear the quickest fruit is with the 7.

The purpose behind this Don’t-side journey was to prove to myself that I could make just as much money by shooting from that side of the dice as I could by shooting from the more optimistic Do-side.

For the player who is looking to harmonize his skills together with the strongest and most dominant number of all the possible dice-combinations in order to bring about a faster win (and usually with less risk) than a Rightsider with the same skill-level; then Darkside-shooting (for a 7-Out) is the most obvious answer.

To determine whether this is an approach that is workable for your current dicesetting skill-set; you have to ask yourself:

Ø      “Can I influence any other number MORE than I can influence the already-dominant 7?”

Ø      “How frequently can I intentionally throw the 7 compared to how frequently I can intentionally throw any other given number?”

Ø      “Can I make just as much money shooting from the Don’ts as I can from the Do-side of the dice?”

Ø      “Does my average hand-length indicate that I’ll be able to shoot long-duration hot-hands and mid-duration warm-hands frequently enough to generate steady winnings, or can I derive more profit from short-duration hands by intentionally shooting for the 7?”

Please understand that I’m not trying to convert your religion, sexual persuasion or political affiliation.  Rather, it is important that you completely understand the FULL potential of your current skills.  In many cases, it will mean that you should at least consider what kind of money Darkside-shooting could supplement your bankroll with, compared to what your Rightside-shooting is contributing right now.

The premise behind this entire Shooting From The Don’ts…A Journey of Opportunity series is to give you a clear, wide-angle view at what an extended walk on the Darkside can look like.


Goodbye Canada…Hello Love Canal

Picture 8

No, that’s not the name of my latest porno movie…rather, it captures the transformed state of mind that a player goes through when he leaves the Honeymoon Capital of the World (Niagara Falls, Ontario), and enters Niagara Falls, New York (the former unofficial toxic-waste capital of the continental U.S.).

Though those two localities share the same name as well as the thundering and mighty falls (often referred to as a newlywed-brides
second biggest disappointment on her honeymoon); the two cities could not be more different.

Niagara Falls, NY has had the unenvied and unfortunate reputation for the last couple of decades as the most toxic community in the U.S.  Though I’m pretty sure the Chamber of Commerce didn’t specifically set out to acquire that reputation, it kind of fell on them when thousands of previously unattributed deaths (including that of countless children) and umpteen hideous birth-defects were traced directly to the mélange of chemicals that had been pumped into and stored in the former Love Canal shipping channel and covered over to make way for suburban subdivisions, elementary schools, day-care centers, and seniors centers…in other words, a perfect backyard for your kids to grow up in.

Until a short time ago, the former Love Canal neighborhoods looked like the abandoned villages surrounding Chernobyl…only not quite as bucolic. Swing-sets still stood, as did the homes, churches, schools and fire-stations.  Were it not for the green, brown and reddish chemical magma leachate that relentlessly oozed up through the ground; this could be Anytown, U.S.A…and apparently a PERFECT place to build a new casino.

Seneca Niagara Casino
Picture 2

To be fair, the Seneca Niagara Casino is not inside the barricaded, worst-contaminated parts of the area.  In fact it is quite a distance from the nastiest sections of it…which is a lot like saying “it’s in the NON-peeing end of the pool”.  Clearly, a short visit there isn’t going to instantly cause you to develop a third eye or suddenly sprout four arms (without any hands), but it’s important to note that there’s a good reason that Love Canal doesn’t get very many tourists.

On the other hand, you probably are best advised to drink non-local bottled water unless you are doing a little collecting of samples for your home-chemistry set and looking for Strontium, arsenic, dioxins, acrolein,  bromodichloromethane, selenium hexafluoride, pentachlorophenals, cadmium, and of course my favorite executioner-du-jour (chlorodibenzofurans),  along with 421 other equally appetizing chemicals that are now partially entombed in a plastic pool-liner type of “I-hope-this-low-priced-condom-is-strong-enough” containment-measure that provides folks around here with a warm and comfy EPA blanket that lets them sleep at night.

The casino is operated by the Seneca Nation of Indians and is housed within what used to be the former abandoned Niagara Falls Convention Center. If you think in terms of a mega-sized, crescent-roofed Quonset-hut with some neon-lights and an endless parade of slot-machines, you’ve got a fairly accurate picture.

At ~110,000 square feet, this casino is on par with the size of the Showboat and Resorts in Atlantic City; Bellagio, Circus Circus, Monte Carlo, and New Frontier in Vegas; the Grand Casino in Gulfport, or about twice the size of the Gold Strike and Hollywood casinos in Tunica.

Ventilation is top-notch and the place is kept cleaner than you’d expect for the amount of people that go through here on an average day.

Free on-site or near-site parking has been a little tight in the past, but that has eased somewhat in the two years since it opened. There are heavy local fines for illegally parked cars (that includes a strongly policed tag-and-tow area).  Additional county-run parking is cheap and accessible.


The Tables…The Players…The Dealers

Four twelve-foot craps tables await the eager player.  The dealers run their games with confidence and nearly all of the players are locals.

Ø
      All four of their craps tables are beautiful to shoot on.  They aren’t overly crowded and most players are fairly knowledgeable.

Ø
      With almost no tourists or out-of-towners, most players know or at least are familiar with the faces of fellow players.

Ø
      You’ll usually find the table-minimums set at $5 and rarely above $10.  In fact, they are reluctant to raise the table-limit unless someone specifically asks the Pit Manager to do so.  In that case, they’ll raise the table-minimum to $15, but closely monitor it to make sure it stays busy…otherwise they drop it back down just as quickly.  Casino-management prefers the “quantity of players” route to make their money instead of the currently in vogue “quality of bet-size” route that most other operators prefer.  This has more to do with their recognition and acknowledgement of the finite number of local players in their geographic market area than it does with eschewing the current gaming-position yield-factor philosophy.

Ø
      Their box-people, table-game supervisors, pit-managers, and Casino Hosts are mostly top-notch professionals that could handily fit in at any other gaming jurisdiction without missing a beat.  I have nothing but praise for their demeanor.
As I mentioned a moment ago, I like the tables at Seneca.

Ø
      They are neutral-rolling layouts that offer low-to-medium backwall-rebounds.

Ø
      Tight-radius corners means more flat backwall area and less likelihood that a Passline rolling-lane toss will errantly hit the curved sidewall/backwall transition-area (instead of a flat area).

Ø
      A low-energy, low-trajectory, minimal backspin throw that initially lands on the free-Odds area of the Pass-Line (about 2.5 inches past the outer white line where it straightens out at a 90-degree angle) will bring my dice TO the backwall without any off-axis rebound.  At little harder or a little farther out on my landing, results in a slightly bigger rebound and rollout.

Ø
      While some players complain about the low-lighting levels in this casino, I haven’t run into any problem with tracking the dice or clearly seeing their exact facial-outcomes.

A Word About Pro-Players…

Ø
      Up until about a year-and-a-half ago, there were less than five talented Precision-Shooters who sporadically played at Seneca.  The steady round-the-clock crowds and newbie dealers back then, made it a less than ideal spot to work their dicesetting magic.

Ø
      With the lighter crowds and the now-experienced hands that stick-handle the dice these days; those same players have increased their presence and are occasionally joined by a few more pro’s who include the Southern Ontario and Western New York casinos on their regular playing schedule.

Ø
      When you take a really close look at Casino Niagara, Niagara Fallsview Resort, and Casino Rama on the Canadian side of the border, and combine those advantage-play opportunities with the ones you’ll find at Seneca Niagara, Seneca Allegany (which we’ll talk about in my next Don’t-side trip report), and the Turning Stone Resort near Syracuse; you have a pro-players circuit that (at this current time) endures no heatno player hassles…and a fairly unrestricted win-tolerance level.  It’s an ideal blend-into-the-background and fly-under-the-radar situation.

Ø
      When you widen the catchment area to include Casino Windsor and the three Detroit casinos (MGM Grand, Greektown and Motorcity) along with the dozen or so Indian Casinos (like Turtle Creek, Lac Vieux, Obiway, Leelanau Sands, and Little River, plus Chip-In Island, Bay Mills, and Soaring Eagle) sprinkled
throughout the rest of Michigan; a grander Precision-Shooting circuit starts to shape up quite nicely.


Ø
      While there’s no guarantee that the current hassle-free dice-influencing circumstances will stay in this idyllic state, it presently makes for near-perfect advantage-play conditions.


Session One

It took a few go-rounds with the dice to get the table-dynamics down correctly.

It’s not that they were hard to adapt to…just the opposite.  I was trying too hard to compensate for what a couple of guys had told me that I’d have to deal with on the recently recovered Seneca tables.  They had breathlessly told me that I’d need to radically modify my throw; and so that thought was in the forefront of my mind when I started shooting.

Instead of instinctively following the Shooting Notes that I had meticulously compiled for these tables over the past couple of years; I ignored that in favor of the fresh advice from those guys.  They had said that the tables needed much more trajectory-height and backspin than previously required.  As it turned out, if I had followed my notes (as I intuitively knew I should have) or even stuck with my normal set of indicative baseline-evaluation throws to let the table tell me what it needed (instead of letting another players throwing-dynamic peccadilloes unduly influence me); then my shooting effectiveness would have been much more efficient much sooner.

In any event, in my mind it just re-galvanized the idea of sticking to the methods that I usually use to adapt to pretty much any table, rather than letting anyone else’s opinion unduly prejudice my toss before I even know for sure that the table I’m about to throw on presents a real problem that my base-toss won’t be able to overcome on its own.

In other words, I’ll stick to what I know works…until it doesn’t.

In following their well-intentioned, but faulty advice…

On the first three laps around the table, I knocked off my first DP-Point each time before coming back with an offsetting DP-winner on the second point.  Perhaps I’m unfairly putting too much blame on the well-meaning good-faith advice that those guys gave to me, and not taking enough of the culpability on myself for failing to re-adapt fast enough to what I instinctively knew would work.

In any event, I got things back on track for the rest of that session without shooting myself in the foot again.  It definitely wasn’t one of those, “Holy cow, dicesetting sure is easy” or “Gee, the Darkside is a good place to make some easy money” types of gathering where your actions convert the unbelievers into joining you on the Darkside. Instead it was a bit of a slog that took more time to break-even than it did to eek out the tiny (and I do mean TINY) profit that made its way into my rack.

I knew I needed a break from the action.  I wanted to put some distance between that session and the slight hangover of regret that I had about not listening to my own instincts a little sooner.
The Thunder Falls Buffet was Dr. MP’s prescription.

Picture 1-36


For a non-Vegas buffet, I give this one a rating of at least 8.3 on my 10-point scale of edible renown.  As an indirect nod to a couple of southern craps pro’s who ply their trade here and in direct acknowledgement to a wider number of players with the same roots; they have collard greens, seafood jambalaya, BBQ brisket and ribs, cornbread and Cajun chicken as part of their daily ~80 main items spread.  It’s also one of the few casino-buffets where you can make call-ahead reservations for a specific seating-time.

Seneca Niagara Players Club
Picture 1

Their regular card gives you an instant discount off of the buffet price, while their Chairman’s Club card gives you express seating at all of their restaurants and access to their complimentary food-and-beverage Players Lounge.

Ø      The perks for the Chairman’s Club are on par with the top-levels of Harrah’s Total Rewards program…only it takes about 8000 LESS hours of play (or ~$170,000 fewer dollars wagered) to reach the same Platinum/Diamond status as it would at Harrah’s.

One more neat little benefit of being a platinum Chairman’s Club cardholder, is that if you and at least one other C-C member show up to play, and all of their currently-open craps tables are full; then their Pit Manager or Shift Manager will try their darndest to get a crew together to staff a new table to accommodate you ASAP.  That level of customer-service may be a throwback to old-school casino operations, but it sure goes over well in my books!


Session Two
My second session got off to a much better start than the first one did.

The table was responding to my dice throws exactly how I wanted them to (and exactly how I remembered them from all my previous encounters on the same layout) despite the fairly new felt on the tables.

In this session I set up my Come-Out action like this:

Ø
      Using the S-6 set, my DP-bet equaled my C-O World-bet.

Ø
      So I had $25 on the Don’t Pass line and $25 on the World-bet.

Ø
      Concurrent with that, this set has shown a mild advantage for me on the Hard-4 and Hard-10, so I also make a $5 “working on the Come-out” H-4 and H-10 wager.  Frankly though, my advantage over this OFTCO Hardway-wager is quite slim as most of the high-leverage 7:1 payout is absorbed by an almost equal-appearing number of C-O 7-losers (which means that not only do the HW’s have to be replaced, but so does my flat DP wager).  The only saving grace in the profit-department for this wager is that if it hits, it establishes a harder-to-repeat PL-Point and the Hardway C-O payment ($35 profit + $10 back from my now-down H-4 and H-10 wagers) pays for the cost of the lost World-bet.  In that it sets an easier-to-7-Out PL-Point of either 4 or 10, makes the slim margin that these OFTCO HW’s produce --- a little more palatable.

Ø
      I still use the traditional S-6 set (with 1/1, 2/5, 6/6 and 5/2 on the primary-faces) configuration for the entire Come-Out cycle.  A single (one dice-face) on-axis pitch (on one die) in either direction gives me the 1/2, 6/5, 2/1, 6/5 all “tray’s and Yo’s” outcome.  While a double-pitch gives me either a Hard-4, a Hard-10 or a choice of two more 7’s.

Ø
      You could just as easily modify this approach with a more conservative wagering level by using a $5 DP-bet, a $5 World-bet, and $1 each on the Hard-4 and Hard-10.

Ø
      If any of my Darkside C-O outcomes are a 7...then my World-bet stays at its initial value, and I return my $25 DP wager along with replacing the two $5 HW-bets on the 4 and 10.

Ø
      Obviously I rely heavily on the Horn-numbers to generate a lot of more-than-enough-to-offset-the-cost-of-C-O-7-losers revenue in order to make this approach work as well as it does.
Let me add an obvious side-note on the element of intentionally using a 7-dominant set knowing full well the S-6 has four on-axis DP Come-Out losers on it.

Ø
      If a 7 rolls on the C-O, the World-bet is self-sustaining in that it’s a “push” (no gain and no loss), but my DP flat-bet has to be replaced.

Ø
      I balance that off with the single appearance of the 2 and 12, along with the double appearance of the 3 and 11.

Ø
      With the high-ratio payouts on each of those Horn-numbers, the sting of having to replace my DP bet if a 7 or 11 shows up, is also partially offset with the additional even-money revenue that the 2 or 3 flat-wager DP-winners produce.

Ø
      More importantly, the elevated recurrence of back-to-back-to-back high-ratio Horn payouts on the 2, 3, 11 and 12 more than offsets the cost of having to replace my flat DP wager so often.

In addition to that, the appearance of a $5 Hard-4 or Hard-10 not only counterbalances the base cost of my losing World-bet; but like I said a moment ago, it also sets an easier-to-avoid PL-Point.

Though it’s not a perfect-world scenario, I’ve found that the S-6 still generates net-profit…and does so in spades when I bring in back-to-back-to-back Horn-number repeaters.

Here’s how I book a progression when I get repeating Horn-outcomes:


Ø
      If the first outcome is an 11...I keep the World-bet at its initial level and I replace my DP-wager.  That means that my first hit on an 11 generates a net-profit of $30.

Ø
      If the outcome is a 3...I double the World-bet to $50, and maintain the same initial $25 bet for my DP-wager.  That means that the W-B 3 (along with the DP even-money payment) generates a net-profit (after the World-bet is pressed) of $55.

Ø
      If the outcome is a 2 or 12...I once again double the World-bet to $50, but still keep the same initial bet for the DP-line.  That means that a 2 generates a net-profit (after the World-bet is pressed) of $130, while a 12 generates a net-profit (after the World-bet is pressed) of $105.
On the very next C-O decision...

Ø
      If the outcome is a 7...I keep the same bet for both the World and the DP.  If the World is at $50, then it stays at $50, but I almost always keep my DP base-bet at $25 no matter how large the World-bet grows.  Again, this acts to minimize the impact of an on-axis C-O DP 7-loser.  I concurrently replace the two $5 wagers on the working Hard-4 and Hard-10 whenever a Come-Out 7 rolls.

Ø
      Though this may look like a very costly way to get the profit from those six possible on-axis Horn appearances; six months (approximately 109 days of actual) closely-tracked in-casino play validates the net-profitability (some would even say, the OUTSTANDING net-profitability) of this betting-method.  However, let me say right here and now that you have to do your own homework to find out what betting-approach and set-selection works best for YOU.  Obviously everyone’s mileage will vary.

Ø
      Please DO NOT use ANY of my methods without first validating them while using YOUR own dice-rolling performances and factoring in your own bankroll, current skill-set and bet-making comfort levels.  It is your money and your responsibility to determine whether or not ANY betting-method is right for you and your bankroll and your dice-throwing skills.  I urge you to use the utmost caution when you are trying out any new method or betting-approach for the first time.

Ø
      If my second Come-Out roll results is an 11; then I replace the DP and increase the World-bet by one $25 unit.

Ø
      If the outcome is a 3...I increase my current World-bet by two more base-units (of $25 each for a current total of $100 on the World), but I still keep the same initial $25 bet on the DP.

Ø
      If the outcome is a 2 or 12...I increase my current World-bet by three base-units (a $75 increase).
On any subsequent Horn-payers, I add one additional unit to the previous scale.
Now...

Ø
      I press the World with a further two-unit ($50) increase if the 11 rolls.

Ø
      I press the World with a further three-unit ($75) increase if the 3 rolls.

Ø
      I press the World with a further four-unit ($100) increase if the 2 or 12 rolls.

Picture 4

As you can see the required replacement of a lost DP line-bet has less and less significance as your World-action increases.  If I'm fortunate enough to get another Horn-hit, I do the same "add one unit to the previous scale" thing, as in…

Ø      I press the World with a further three-unit increase if the 11 rolls.

Ø
      I press the World with a further four-unit increase if the 3 rolls.

Ø
      I press the World with a further five-unit increase if the 2 or 12 rolls.

While some of the pit-guys at Seneca Niagara do notice when the Horn is repeating more than four or five times in a row (especially if more than a couple of players are wagering big-money stakes on it); it hasn’t resulted in more than a passing interest to make sure that the stickman calls out the correct Prop-payments to the base dealer.


The next progression (if another Horn-number repeats again), looks like this:


Ø
      I press the World with a further four-unit increase if the 11 rolls.

Ø
      I press the World with a further five-unit increase if the 3 rolls.

Ø
      I press the World with a further six-unit increase if the 2 or 12 rolls.

At this point, your World-bet could reach the $500 mark (using $25 base-units) if you’ve had the C-O results that see you using the maximum unit-increase on each one of those steps (like if the 2 or 12 has been rolling).  It is also the point where you will very likely reach the maximum allowable Horn-bet payout-level at many casinos.

For Session Two, the dice were moving around the table pretty quickly, so I had nine turns with the dice, and managed to hit my final self-imposed-for-this-house C-O World-bet limit twice.

At Seneca, the sixth-level of progression is about as close to the comfort/discomfort border that I allow my World-action to get to.  Anything much beyond $100 each on the 2, 3, 11, 12 and 7 (for a $500 W-B total) is pretty much where you can see the mid-level pit-management guys start to get a little uncomfortable.

Making them squirm is not high on my ego-needs priority list.


I took an extended break from playing, and met up with some lifelong associates that live a far more uncommon life than that of a simple professional craps player like me.

Picture 13

Seneca’s Western Door Steakhouse played host to my rabble of plunderers, brigands, buccaneers and traducers.  Obscene amounts of Milanese Zucca, Campari, clams, Pinot Grigio, beef, buffalo, and Disaronno were consumed…after which they wanted to gamble.  There was no way I was in any condition to make any reasonably-minded wagers, let alone pick up the dice with alacrity; so I accompanied them to the tables as an interested but non-participating observer.

Session Three
I decided to dial-down my C-O progression action on the World-bets for this session.  I had gotten to my self-imposed max-bet (for this casino) twice during Session Two, and since I was planning on playing a couple more sessions, I certainly didn’t want to be fouling the dice-influencing well-of-prosperity for anyone else’s future use (including my own).

In its place I opted for the odds-stretching approach (that we discussed in Darkside Journey 5 and Creating More Shooting Opportunities – Part Three), which is based on an imbalanced (unequal) Doey-Don’t DP/PL wager where the small difference between the two is used to secure additional (higher-multiple) free-Odds.

In this session, I wagered $50 on the Don’t Pass and $25 on the Pass-line.  That meant that in a 3x, 4x, 5x-Odds game where I’m normally allowed to use up to 6x-Odds on the full value of my DP wager…I could actually wager up to 12x the difference between the two line-bets.  In other words, with a flat $25 DP bet, I’d be allowed to Lay up to $150 in Odds, but since I’m working off of a $50 base-bet (even though there is only a $25 difference between my PL and DP bet), they’ll let me Lay up to $300 in what is effectively 12x-Odds against the Point.


The unequal Doey-Don’t offset is simply used to reduce the C-O exposure of my DP-money to an unintentional (
but-likely-to-happen-quite-often-while-using-the-7-Dominant-Horn-heavy S-6 C-O set) 7-loser.

Now in reality, it isn’t
really 12x-Odds that I am using (especially if you look at just the flat DP-bet in total isolation from the PL-bet that I have on the table at the same time), but keep in mind that for a Darkside player, the Come-Out rolls are the most treacherous because that is the only time the “7” isn’t working in your favor.

Ø      With that in mind…minimized DP-exposure during the Come-Out cycle and maximized free-Odds against the PL-Point once it is established…adds up to more money in my pocket.

Ø
      My roll-tracking indicates that I have a strong ability to throw DP-winning 7-Outs once the Point is established, so maximum-Odds (or in this case, Odds that are stretched way beyond the obverse of what is posted as the maximum) act to leverage and multiply the financial benefits of that skill.


So how do we reconcile the major flaw behind the Doey-Don’t, which is the doubled house-edge against the total of your line-bets, and the risk associated with a C-O 12 where the DP is a push, but the PL loses?

Well, we know how I handle the C-O rolls in terms of wagering on the World-bet so that goes a fair distance to explaining how my Come-Out “game-within-a-game” approach provides MORE profit to my bankroll with less DP-bet erosion (and also less PL-bet erosion if the 12 appears) on the Come-Out.

This Odds-Stretcher approach gives me the higher-than-posted Odds that I want to wager once the Point has been established; yet doesn’t unfairly diminish my Come-Out profitability by too much of a margin when I’m using the S-6 7-dominant C-O set.

Ø      Although this unequal Doey-Don’t approach does dilute a bit of the World-bet net-profit that I derive from the 2, 3 and 12 hits; it doesn’t hurt as much when a C-O 7 or 11 appears.

Ø
      Further, it more than makes up for that slightly diminished W-B 2, 3 or 12 profit (what I would term the Doey-Don’t World-bet Paradox), by delivering a high-probability Lay-Odds payoff once the Point is established and I throw a DP-winning 7-Out.

Picture 9


Before You Blow the Circuit-Board on Your Calculator…

I clearly understand that that kind of fuzzy logic may seem a little tainted to those who live and die strictly by the math of the game; but from a Precision-Shooters standpoint, I like the level of profit that the Odds-Stretcher approach brings to my rail-space.

Clearly the math still has to factor in to any wager that a skilled Precision-Shooter makes, but obviously so does his dice-influencing skills.

Ø      It does no good to make all kinds of bets if you only have the advantage over a few.

Ø
      My approach sees me making wagers on the bets that I know I have a good chance of hitting …and laying off those that either don’t give me the advantage…or don’t give me a big enough sustainable advantage to make steady money from it.

For me, the Doey-Don’t Odds-Stretcher let’s me use my dice-influencing talents to make money off of the Come-out cycle of throws (with LESS damage from the C-O 7) as well as more money from the Point-cycle series because of the way-beyond-posted allowable-Odds.
To my mind, it gives me the best of both worlds.

Though it’s far from being a perfect approach; to validate its efficacy, I only have to look at the steadily redeeming revenue that it has consistently generated since I started using it.

Clearly, there may be much better ways to skin this particular cat, but I haven’t found it yet.

This is a good spot to share the following with you:

The “You may have just won $350, but it cost you 14-cents more than it should have” Debate

Dear MP:

I’m writing today to correct an apparent math error in your recently published “
Shooting From the Don'ts- Part V” article.

A Doey-Don’t does not increase your effective Odds, because, contrary to common belief, the Doey-Don’t bets do not actually offset the House Advantage on each line bet. People think the offsetting Line bet gives them 0% risk on their $10 Don’t Pass bet, when in fact it gives them DOUBLE the risk ...2 x
$10 Line bets, instead of just one.

The key is the Bar-12, which is the ENTIRE source of the House Advantage on a flat line bet. And the Doey-Don’t does nothing to eliminate that House Advantage; it merely doubles it.

So, in reality your 5x Odds on the $10 DP bet become, in effect, 2½ times odds on the $20 total Doey-Don’t.

Here’s how the math works: There’s about a 1.4% House Advantage on a $10 flat Don’t Pass bet, for an expected value of -14 cents on the wager. Your 5x Odds lets you pile on $50 in potential winnings for “free” (ignoring the effects of volatility, losing streaks, and the poor quality of shooting). So, you have $60 in potential winnings now for that same 14-cent gambling cost.

So your actual odds drops from 1.4% on the flat Line bet, to about 0.3% on the DP with 5x odds.

You have piled more wagering action on the fixed gambling cost of the flat DP bet.

A Doey-Don’t offsetting Pass Line bet does not improve this cozy dynamic, but instead just adds
another 14-cent Line-bet gambling cost.  Your Pass Line bet can now lose to a Come-out 12, while of course the DP-bet is barred and won’t offset the loss.

That is, you have the same 1.4% House Advantage on EACH $10 flat bet with a Doey-Don’t. It’s actually a good bet for the House, while your total “free” Odds don’t increase to offset the greater flat Line bet’s cost. So, your net Odds advantage goes down.

So, putting more chips on the Line, in EITHER direction, relative to a fixed amount of Odds actually LOWERS your maximum odds. It does not raise them, because your line-bet risk versus House Advantage is doubled, not offset, by the Doey-Don’t and that bet is costing you 14-cents more than it has to.

Well, I hope I have been confusing enough here to sound authoritative.


Let’s be clear that I never said that using the Odds-Stretcher method would lower the house-edge.

Rather, I said that for the accomplished dice-influencer, this approach was an effective way (but certainly not the only way) to
leverage his Darkside Precision-Shooting skill (by using higher-than-posted effective Odds) as a skill-multiplier, and thereby turn that increased Odds-leverage into more profit.

Now to be completely fair; everything that that sharp writer pointed out…is absolutely correct.

Clearly the house-edge on a Doey-Don’t is double what it would be with just one or the other of those line-bets (and I did mention that fact when I originally wrote about it).

Ø      For a random-roller, that is clearly a BAD thing.


In fact, increasing the house-take on ANY bet isn't a good idea, but it was done to illustrate the "Odds stretching power" behind the concept.

Ø      For a dice-influencer, the Doey-Don’t Odds-Stretcher can be a good thing if your shooting is decent enough to overcome the increased 14-cents-per-$10-wagered disadvantage AND decent enough to weather the volatility of having additional money on the layout.

Ø
      Frankly, the volatility thing concerns me (as it should concern any dice-influencer) much more than the 1.4-cents-per-dollar-wagered does.

Ø
      The underlying cost of any flat-bet remains unchanged no matter how well you can control the dice or how much Odds you apply against it.

Ø
      We first explored this concept way back when in my Don’t Confuse Me With The Truth article, and obviously it still makes for a relevant read after all these years.

Ø
      Equally, it should go without saying that any players with short-stacked bankrolls SHOULD NOT even CONSIDER this method until they are properly funded.
In most cases it’s the volatility and NOT the House Advantage, that sends gamblers home in a body-bag.

I also think it’s important for an aspiring advantage-player to realize how the
math of craps fits into the much bigger picture of dice-influencing (which encompasses not only de-randomizing the dice but also using matched-to-skill betting-strategies).

Ø
      If you don’t know where your advantage over the house is…then there’s very little likelihood you’ll be able to take advantage of it often enough to provide a sustainable profit-stream.

Ø
      Math helps us figure out the wagers we should be making, and how much money we should be putting on them at any given time.

I like to keep my approach to the game fairly simple…

Ø
      The bigger my advantage…the bigger my wager.

Ø
      The smaller my advantage…the smaller my wager.

Ø
      The more frequent my advantage shows itself; the steeper I’ll increase my wager after it hits.

Ø
      The less frequent it shows up, the gentler I’ll increase it…if at all.

A Darkside Doey-Don’t simply allows a very effective lowering of Come-out volatility from the dreaded Sheriff (7) and his Deputy (11) Naturals.

Ø      Thereby, a DP flat-bet loss to Naturals isn’t nearly as discouraging as it could be, and...

Ø      My usual C-O action takes the 12-Midnight PL-lemon and turns it into a lemon-scented wad of
only slightly diminished World-bet profit.

I should also point out that I don’t use my Horn-rich S-6 C-O set if the difference between my PL and DP wagers are too large.  As a result, I sometimes will bypass the C-O Horn-action (especially if there is undue pit attention to what I’ve been doing as far as taking heapin’ helpin’s of C-O Horn profit; and instead focus my C-O efforts on establishing a hard-to-repeat PL-Point number.

By using the Odds-Stretcher method, I’ve been able to derive MORE profit out of the same DP-wins.

Now you can tell me that I’m losing 14-cents for every $10 net-difference that I put on the line, and that’s just fine.

If you haven’t figured it out by now, it’s the hundreds-of-dollars of winning DP-with-12x-Odds payoffs that bulk up my bankroll and not the slings, arrows and humiliation of having 14-theoretical-cents unceremoniously skimmed-off by the math of the game every time I win.

For the skilled Darkside-shooter, it’s the Odds (and in the case of using the Doey-Don’t Odds-Stretcher, it’s the sheer amount of Odds) that provide the bulk of my Darkside Point-cycle profit…and NOT the flat DP-wager itself.

If You Chicken Out or Your Roll Goes Too Long

All of the Odds-Stretching discussion assumes you have nerves of steel and aren’t anxiously affected by having so much Odds-money on the layout.

After all if you have $50 on the Passline and $100 on the DP in order to lay an effective 12x-Odds (on the $50 PL/DP difference on a 3x, 4x, 5x game); and the mere thought of putting $600 in Odds-action out on the table makes you break out in hives; then you probably shouldn’t be betting at those levels in the first place.


Nervous anxiety can play serious havoc with your dice-influencing skills.

Ø      If you are shaking more than Michael Jackson on his wedding night, then there is no way you should have that kind of money out there.

Ø
      If your current bankroll cannot comfortably afford that level of wagering, then there’s no way that your money should be on the layout in the first place.

Ø
      You may have a validated-at-home advantage over this bet, but if you aren’t properly prepared mentally, physically and financially; then there’s a good chance that YOUR money will soon become THEIR money.

If at any point during your hand, you feel any anxiety, nervousness or dread start to creep into your psyche (no matter how well-bankrolled you are); then you can simply remove some or all of your stretched DP-Odds.

Session Four
I spent most of my fourth session just bouncing from table to table.  I’d sidle up to one table…when the dice came to me I would set up the unequal Doey-Don’t…then once the PL-Point was established, I maxed-Out the now-STRETCHED Odds, and aim squarely for a quick 7-Out.  Sometimes my wish came instantly true…and sometimes it took more that a dozen or so rolls.  I did manage to shoot myself in the foot once during that session (by rolling a PL-Point winner), but it still proved to be a significant overall money-maker nonetheless.

The casino itself was starting to get crowded but the craps pit didn’t have more than 25 or 30 players spread across all four open layouts.  I’d shoot at one table…park a couple of $1 chips to hold my spot there…mosey over to the next table and wait for a turn with the dice, and then either return to my primary table…or seek out another nearly-immediate shooting opportunity at the third or fourth table.

Ø      I still restricted my Come-Out action to the higher of either the sixth-progression or to my now-lower $375 self-imposed World-bet limit.

Ø
      My longest Point-cycle roll was fourteen throws (twice), but on average it was taking a touch less than 5 rolls (including the Point-setting roll) before I 7’d-Out.

Ø
      I followed that routine for nearly four hours, then called it a day.
The amount of net-profit at the end of it all really surprised me, although it shouldn’t have.

I guess it was the full and unmistakable realization that Darkside-shooting really can generate as much profit as equally-skilled Rightside-shooting, that pleasantly surprised me the most.

I watched an NBA game in Morrie’s Place sports pub.  Forgettable food consumed while watching a forgettable game, encouraged me call it an early night.

Hotel Accommodation

Picture 10

Unlike the Canadian side of the Falls, the American side gets very little tourist trade as evidenced by the extreme lack of first-rate accommodations.  There does however seem to be a booming crack-trade in the surrounding neighborhoods.  There is also a Holiday Inn directly across the street from the casino, and the Seneca Nation is building their own high-rise hotel on adjacent land.


Session Five… A Tale of Two Darksiders
So I’m standing at the table with a bunch of guys who are all playing the Pass-line and the usual Do-sider Place-bets on the 6 and 8 or single/double or triple-unit Inside-number action.

For the last hour or so, I had been doing my usual Come-Out World-bet action followed by the D-D Odds Stretcher once the Point was established.

Everything was copasetic and everyone was calm and well-behaved even though I was throwing my intended DP 7-Out’s every time the dice came around.  No one was bitching or moaning when I was winning and everything was proceeding nicely.  One or two players managed to string together a couple of fairly decent hands, but nothing approaching hot.

A new big-money player comes to the table.  He was also a Darkside shooter, but proceeded to be a complete asshole!

He badgered every player when they were shooting…not just the ordinary uncouth “
Come on buddy, 7-Out for me”.  He would loudly browbeat each one of them to 7-out including a few not-so-subtle racial or sexual slurs.  I was surprised that neither the box-lady nor the never-there-at-the-right-time Table-game Supervisor said a thing.  Equally, I was surprised that my tablemates were so meek in the face of an obvious schoolyard bully.

This guy even sank so low as to approach each shooter between rolls and put his arm around their shoulders while taunting them to throw a 7-Out.  He’d say stuff like, “Listen you’ve only got $5 bucks on the line and I’ve got $500 on the Don’t…so stop messin’ around and throw the damn 7 before I mess you up”.  He was not only getting into the head of most of the shooters, but he was also making a complete ass of himself.

When the dice came to me, I threw an easy 7-out that he cheered loudly and yelled, “That’s more like it…not like the rest of these Mary’s and Nancy’s around here”.

As the dice came around again, he did the same old arm-around-the-shoulder routine to the guy with the dice who was standing next to me.  It severely upset the shooter…who promptly 7’d-Out.

I decided at that moment to break from the whole purpose of this journey and to shoot from the Rightside this time.

Frankly I was really hoping that he’d try to pull that arm-around-the-shoulder crap with me so I could lay him out.  I put the stickman, the box-lady and the TGS on notice that if that idiot put his hands on me, they’d be “…sending him out to ECMC” (Erie County Medical Center) or better still, to my buddies that operate Magaddino’s Funeral Home”.  For some reason that I can’t fathom, the TGS suddenly got instant wisdom, and immediately warned the idiot “not to bother any more players…and especially not THIS shooter” (as he emphatically pointed my way).

Though I was slightly disappointed that they wouldn’t have to surgically remove his head from his lower intestinal tract, I was pleased to see that he had piled a high tower of black chips on the Don’t Pass line.  It had been so long since I had shot from the Passline that I took an extra few seconds to re-orient myself back into a Rightside-shooting frame of mind.

I’ll spare you the gory details of his demise.

I’ll simply tell you that I made a couple of C-O PL-winners followed by three subsequent PL-Point repeaters in a row…and he was betting against the Point on each and every one of them.  That performance was almost enough to blow out his entire bankroll but he still had a few red chips remaining from the ~$5500 or so that he had held at the beginning of my hand (including his $2000 buy-in).


The next shooter took care of the last few red-chip remnants of his idiotic arrogance.
Niiiiiiiiiiice!

When I’m shooting from the Rightside, I personally don’t care how many Don’t bettors are at the table with me.  They don’t bother me…they don’t make me feel like they are against me or that it’s
me against them…they simply don’t get into my head.

However, in this case, my actions were more for the benefit of my tablemates (even though at the outset and for most of the session until this loogan arrived, they were Rightsiders and I wasn’t).

The money that I won on that hand wasn’t germane either (nor did I enter that profit into my DP-winnings ledger). Rather, I did it because that fool was pissing in the well-water that other better-behaved Darkside-shooters like to drink from.  A guy who behaves like that is what gives DP-players a bad reputation and creates even more hard feelings and hostility towards other Darksiders.  Worse still, it creates even more of a stigma for those who are contemplating Darkside shooting but don’t want to be associated with the bad vibes, trash-talk and ill-will that players like that bring to the table.

Picture 3 1-3

Seneca Niagara’s tables proved to be all that they’re cracked up to be, and I was looking forward to a short trip down the road to its sister casino just south of Buffalo.

I’ll hope you’ll join me for that one.

Do you have questions or comments about the articles and subjects discussed here at the Dice Institute? Sign up for our member's forum and share them with us!

About

This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on February 6, 2007 9:27 AM.

The previous post in this blog was Current Practice…Future Profitability - Part 5.

The next post in this blog is Mad Professor's Mini-Table Craps Tour with the Vegas Ghost - Part 6.

Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

Creative Commons License
This weblog is licensed under a Creative Commons License.
Powered by
Movable Type 3.34