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Doey-Don’t…The Truth, The Whole Truth, and Nothing But the Truth

What is a Doey-Don’t?


As most of you know, a Doey-Don't bet is one where a player places a wager on both the Passline, as well as a wager on the Don’t Passline, at the same time.

~During the Come-Out cycle, the Do-side wins and the Don’t-side loses when either a 7 or an 11 rolls. The opposite thing occurs when the 2 or 3 rolls and the Do-side loses while the Don’t-side wins.

~A Come-Out roll of 12 is the only non-offsetting outcome. In that case the PL portion of the Doey-Don't loses, but it’s a push for the DP portion of it. As it turns out, the seemingly unassuming 12, single-handedly sets and determines the entire house-edge against the Doey-Don’t wager.

~As soon as a box-number is set as the Passline-Point, the offsetting and equalizing effect of the Doey-Don’t takes over once again. That is, as soon as the PL-Point is established, the flat portion of the Doey-Don’t neither wins nor loses since a PL-Point win is offset by a DP-line loss, and vice versa.




Understanding the Doey-Don't

~When you make a Doey-Don't wager, you are making two separate and distinct bets.

That bears repeating because it is a critical point:

~When you make a Doey-Don't wager, you are making two separate and distinct bets.

~The fact that one bet usually wins when the other one loses, and vice versa, is generally what attracts most players to this wager in the first place. They like the way it reduces the Come-Out volatility of their line-bets; however most players do so without fully understanding that reduced volatility comes at a price.

~The outcome of a 12 on the Come-Out is the only non-overlapping win-or-lose proposition in the entire flat-bet portion of the Doey-Don't scenario, in that a 12 is a 'push' for the DP bet and a loser for the PL bet. Every other Come-Out cycle and Point-cycle outcome is offset and equalized for the flat-bet portion of the Doey-Don't wager except for the C-O 12.

~We normally look at dice expectation-distribution in groupings of 36; so when we consider how many wins and how many losses we should expect over a normal random distribution of outcomes, we see that the 12 will show up 1-in-36 rolls. That is where we get the seemingly correct and oft-quoted doubled-up (PL + DP) Doey-Don't house-edge of -2.77% figure from.

Unfortunately that's only part of the story...and it is incorrect due to the incompleteness of the calculation.

~Since we have 'action' on both sides of the line with a Doey-Don't wager; we have to look at the total amount of wagering action we have in play, and then divide our expect-loss into that total amount.

Our friends DeMango, Heavy and Jeffrey47 have previously (and correctly) pointed out that to accurately determine the house-edge against this combination wager, we have to divide our total expected loss into the total amount of Doey-Don’t wagering action to ascertain both the house-edge as well as our return-on-investment.




House-Edge Against the Doey-Don’t

Because the Doey-Don't constitutes two separate bets made at the same time over 36 rolls, they total 72 bets in action, and so any loss or gain has to be divided into that number.

~Say for instance we bet a $5 Doey-Don't with $5 on the DP and $5 on the PL over 36 perfectly-distributed-to-expectancy random rolls of the dice. That's a total of $360 in betting action ($180 on the Do side and $180 on the Don't side).

~If you conducted that same betting-scenario over thousands upon thousands of random trials, the end result would be that the Doey-Don't bettor would lose an average of one (1) betting-unit for each set of 72 combined bets. In this case, that random bettor would lose $5.

~To determine how big the house-edge against this combination Doey-Don't wager is; we have to divide his $5 net-loss into his total wagering action of $360.

~That equates to -1.3888%.

~We can round that off to -1.4%...and that is the house-edge against the Doey-Don't wager.




The Full Doey-Don’t Picture

While the Doey-Don’t neither reduces nor doubles the house-edge against you; it does set you into a situation where you are betting twice as much money…and in the process, as Heavy previously wrote, “You lose at twice the rate at which you would lose if you were only betting on one side alone.”

So in essence, while the house-edge against you doesn’t go up; your expected-losses do, simply because you are now betting twice as much money as you would if you just picked one side or the other instead of both.




How does this Affect the Doey-Don't Odds S-T-R-E-T-C-H-E-R

If anything, confirming that the house-edge against a shooter isn’t doubled as many people (including myself) initially thought; puts my Doey-Don't Odds S-T-R-E-T-C-H-E-R concept on even firmer ground as a legitimate D-I skills force-multiplier.

Since we now understand that the flat-bet component of the Doey-Don’t wager has a quite manageable -1.4% house-edge for dice-influencers to overcome, the D-D Odds S-T-R-E-T-C-H-E-R still remains a very sound advantage-play approach because it maximizes the strongest true-Odds-paying element of our line-bets.

While the Odds-bet remains a zero-sum game for random-rollers; in the hands of a dice-influencer, Odds allow him to leverage and multiply his de-randomizing skills to a degree that can’t be matched by a comparably-valued Place-bet on the same number.

As if that’s not enough benefit, the Doey-Don’t Odds S-T-R-E-T-C-H-E-R also offers the prospect of a wider variety of shooting opportunities by allowing D-I advantage-players to tackle the less crowded but more expensive $25, $50, and $100 minimum-bet tables that we are seeing more and more of these days.

The D-D Odds Stretcher does that by allowing a precision-shooter to play at tables where the bet-minimums are above his current comfort level, by letting him wager off-setting or near-equal PL and DP wagers (let’s say, $50 or $55 on the Passline and $50 on the Don’t Pass at a $50 table).

What's the benefit to that?

Well, by reducing the volatility on the flat-portion of his line-bets; the skilled D-I’er is now able to invest more of his money on the Odds portion of his advantaged PL-Point where the higher (better than even-money) payout leverages and multiplies his de-randomizing skills by factors of at least (depending on the PL-Point); 20%, 40% and 66%...and it's even more effective for Darkside-shooters.

We’ll be taking a much closer look at just how effectively my Doey-Don't Odds S-T-R-E-T-C-H-E-R can be used as a skill-based force-multiplier for each specific PL-Point (based on varying levels of dice-influencing skills and SRR-rates over a reasonable number of trials)...but that's for an entirely different discussion.

For now, knowing that the total amount of the combined Doey-Don’t wager has to be included when any net-loss or net-gain is divided into it in order to determine that the correct house-edge against the Doey-Don't is indeed -1.4% is still bad news for random-rollers who think that this is a good way to play.

However the confirmation of that D-D house-edge comes as good news for dice-influencers who want to increase their shooting opportunities at higher-rent $25, $50, and $100 tables while fully recognizing that the reduced line-bet volatility of a Doey-Don't comes with the cost of a house-edge that is exacted against the entire combined value of both their Do-side and Don’t-side line-bets…and that's the Truth, the Whole Truth, and Nothing but the Truth about the Doey-Don’t.




Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.



The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2007

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on March 2, 2007 10:04 AM.

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