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Old Dog…New Tricks…Better Rewards

The more we investigate WHERE our dice-influencing edge comes from, and the more we understand HOW that edge can be exploited; the closer we come to fully utilizing our precision-shooting skills in an optimal lowest-risk/highest-reward way.


That means that we old dogs who are still willing to learn some new tricks, can get much better rewards from our casino action.


Using our precision-shooting skills in a lowest-risk/highest-reward way means that we have to at least consider using some types of bets that we as 'gamblers' in our previous life, have long rejected. A prime example would be the oft-criticized Field-wager.


As I've explained previously, the strong feelings that many random-rollers rightfully should have against the Field is often unnecessarily carried over to their bet-decisions when they become advantage-play dice-influencers…and that isn’t necessarily a good thing.


When you have a wager with such a high-frequency, low-volatility bet-utilization rate as the Field-bet does; more and more open-minded players are discovering that the Field-bet can be an excellent choice in terms of exploiting their current D-I talents in an incredibly low-risk/high-reward way.


That fact becomes especially evident when they realize that the Field-bet offers a multi-number catchment that is similar to other global-bets (like Inside, Across, Outside, Even, etc); without burdening their session-bankroll with a disproportionate ratio between dollars-exposed-to-a-7-Out versus dollars-winnable-with-one-paying-hit.


~For example, when you wager $22-Inside, that entire wagered amount is exposed to a 7-Out, but it only offers a $7 payout in return for one winning hit. In other words, $22-Inside covers 50% of all possible outcomes but only rewards that exposure with a 31.8% per-hit return-on-investment (R.O.I.).


~On the other hand, the Field-bet offers a better rate-of-return with a lower exposure-rate by paying an average of $5.94/per-hit on a ‘triple-pay 12’ $5 wager (118% per-hit R.O.I.), and an average of $5.63/per-hit on a ‘double-pay 12’ $5 wager (113% per-hit R.O.I.)...all the while covering a little over 44% of all possible outcomes.


Most importantly though; when you consider the fact that the Field is a one-roll “every outcome is a bet-decision” wager…that is an incredibly GOOD thing for a dice-influencer (even though it continues to be a BAD thing for the random-roller).


Here’s why:


When you have a validated edge over a given bet, the advantage-player WANTS as many bet-decisions as possible. That is how he makes his money.


If a bet is just idly sitting on the layout, neither winning nor losing with each subsequent toss; then your money is asleep. With each subsequent roll that does not produce a decision, your money may not be losing…but neither is it producing any winners nor is it rewarding the edge you have over the house.


If you have the edge over the house, you want your money to be working and you want to get the maximum number of DECISIONS on your positive-expectation wagers as FREQUENTLY as possible.


Just as the casino wants gamblers to be exposed to as many negative-expectation bet-decisions per hour as possible (because that is how the house makes its money off of its negative EV edge); so too, the advantage-play dice-influencer wants his wagers to be exposed to as many positive-expectation bet-decisions per hour as possible...because that is how he makes money off of his positive EV edge over the house.


Again, Bet-DECISIONS are how you make money off of your positive-EV wagers.


The whole idea behind dice-influencing is to wager when you HAVE the edge…and to lay off the bets when you DON’T.


If you have a validated edge over a given wager…you should be taking advantage of it as OFTEN as possible.


The Field-bet simply lets you exploit your positive-expectation edge over the casino in a low-risk/high-reward manner on a high-frequency every-roll-is-a-decision basis.


The more positive-edge bets you can make and the more frequently you can have them decided…the more money you make...


...at least, that's how this Old Dog learned some New Tricks and has been getting Better Rewards as a result.

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2007

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on March 6, 2007 2:03 PM.

The previous post in this blog was Does the “Stack ‘em, Don’t Rack ‘em” Approach Make Financial Sense?.

The next post in this blog is Practicing For Perfection - Part III.

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