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The MORE Your R-R Losses Affect Your Advantaged-Bets…the LESS You'll Win

The MORE your random-roller losses affect the bet-management of your own advantaged-wagers (by way of the bet-sizing as well as the trigger-point timing) that you make on your own skillful shooting…the LESS your overall net-winnings will be.

>>>Let’s say that you walk up to what appears to be a fairly warm table where the shooter has just repeated his third PL-Point; you buy-in for $200 during a break in the action so as not to disturb the shooter or spook the herd.

>>>You put out a $12 6 & 8, which he proceeds to hit once before 7’ing-Out…you are down $10.

>>>You make the same bet on the next shooter, but he goes Point-then-7-Out without hitting either number…you are now down $34.

>>>You start to think that the table is turning cold.

>>>You decide to wait for the next shooter to toss a few 6’s and 8’s before jumping in. This particular shooter hits those numbers four times before 7’ing-Out. You were able to catch one hit on your $12 6 & 8, so you are now down $44.

>>>There’s a slight feeling of irony starting to slip into your thoughts, so you put out your $12 6 & 8 on the next shooter right from the get-go. He proceeds to string together quite a nice little hand 12-roll hand; unfortunately he only hits your Place-bets once during that entire time.

>>>After four shooters you are now down $54 on your $200 buy-in…that’s 27% of your total buy-in.

>>>The dice finally get to you. Since you have already lost more than one-quarter of your buy-in to random-rollers; you decide to keep your own advantaged bets to an absolute minimum for the time being even though your pre-casino practice session indicated that your shooting was dialed-in to your satisfaction.

>>>That being the case, you decide to pass on using an Initial Steep Regression, and instead just put out a simple $22-Inside wager along with your Passline bet. Again, since you are down by so much money, you decide to back your PL-Point with 1x-Odds instead of your usual 3x coverage.

>>>You proceed to throw what you've come to think of as a 'normal' hand…hitting your Inside-number Place-bets five times as well as repeating your first PL-Point before 7’ing-Out on the second Point.

>>>It's 'normal' based on the fact that it is the most common type of in-casino performance that you usually turn in. Though it doesn't set the dice on fire, you are satisfied by the multiple Inside-Number hits as well as the fact that you normally repeat at least one PL-Point during a majority of your hands.

>>>As a result of your own throwing, you have staged a comeback of sorts and are now down a measly $4.

>>>You decide that you don’t want the random-rollers to put you back in the hole again, so you switch over to the Darkside when they are shooting, but even though the table is fairly cold; your combination of Don’t Pass and Don’t Come wagers keep falling to a bunch of Come-Out losing 7’s and mid-hand losing 11’s.

>>>By the time the dice circle back around, you are down another $50 for your trouble.

>>>Again, since you are trying to shepherd and protect your bankroll, you conservatively bet on your next hand which turns out to be pretty much a carbon copy of your first one…so you are pretty much back to even…again.

>>>One more lap around the randomly-populated table and you are back to being down another $50. Well, actually it’s the same $50 that you’ve been trading back and forth with the casino all session long, but in any event your buy-in is still around 25% lower than it was when you began…despite the fact that you yourself have thrown two productive hands.

>>>When the dice come back to you the third time, you decide that you’ve waited long enough. Your shooting is obviously dialed-in and you don’t want to continue swapping the same dollars back and forth with the casino for the rest of the session; so you put out the ISR bet that you had intended to make on yourself in the first place…it’s a 5:1 ($110-Inside to $22-Inside) wager that you plan to take your usual three winning hits off of before regressing it down to table minimum. Concurrent with that, you finally decide that since you are hitting your PL-Points at least once per hand; you’ll back it with 3x-Odds like you also normally do when your buy-in is at full force.

>>>You set the Point…you set up your Odds…you set up your ISR Place-bets…you 7-Out on the very next toss.

>>>Your $200 buy-in has dwindled down to $20.

>>>As you wait for the floorman to print out a chit for your comped buffet, you tell yourself that you’ve got to spend more time practicing since your shooting obviously needs a LOT more work.

The fact is though, if you had sized the bets on your own advantaged wagers the way you normally do…and you hadn’t let your random losses affect how you bet on your own hand…you’d be way ahead of the game despite the one-out-of-three PSO that you threw.

This is one of those situations where a skilled shooter is using unskilled betting.

Take a look:

>>>You threw two hands that each saw five Inside-Number hits. Using your usual 5:1 ($110-Inside to $22-Inside) Initial Steep Regression where you take three winning hits before regressing; you would have netted around $97 on each hand.

>>>At same time, if you had backed your own PL-Points with your usual 3x-Odds; those two winning Points would have netted out around $10 each after subtracting the subsequent PL w/Odds losses from each of your second un-repeated PL-Points.

>>>Add those two ‘normal’ hands together ($107 + $107) and then subtract your one-in-three-hands PSO (-$130) and you still have a net-profit of $84.

>>>That's a 42% net-profit over and above your buy-in...despite an ugly Point-then-Seven-Out that shows up 33% of the time when you get your hands on the dice.

Now the first thing I’ll note is that making a $110-Inside wager with a $200 buy-in is pure silliness; but so is letting your random-roller losses affect the way you bet on your own advantaged throws.

Clearly I am not advocating overbetting your buy-in. Instead, I'm simply illustrating the point that even the most modest dice-influencing skills can generate all kinds of net-profit even if you throw a pretty high percentage of PSO's.

How you use your bankroll to finance both your advantaged bets on yourself as well as the DIS-advantaged negative-expectation bets that you make on random-rollers is the chief determinant of whether or not your skilled shooting will translate into net-profit.

The MORE your random-roller losses affect the bet-management your own advantaged-wagers (by way of the bet-sizing as well as the trigger-point timing) that you make on your own skillful shooting…the LESS your overall net-winnings will be.

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor

Copyright © 2007

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on March 18, 2007 8:55 AM.

The previous post in this blog was Shooting Bible - Part 2.

The next post in this blog is Using WinCraps to War-Game your Current D-I Skills Against Various Betting-Methods.

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