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Using WinCraps to War-Game your Current D-I Skills Against Various Betting-Methods

Simply stated, WinCraps lets you separate the truth about your current-skill player-edge from all the speculation, conjecture, and bullshit.


Whenever anyone goes to the trouble of writing up various betting-schemes, I always read them with keen interest.


Though the concept itself may be directed towards betting on random-rollers, I always look to see if that same method would have any merit for any dice-influencers…especially THIS dice-influencer.


What I’ve found over the years is that although some of these random-centric plays are out-and-out losers no matter how a random-roller slices, dices, or juliennes them; in the hands of a modestly skilled dice-influencer they can turn in a surprisingly fine and steadily profitable performance.


That brings us to what I consider the finest piece of bet-simulation software available today. WinCraps ( www.cloudcitysoftware.com ) allows you to run every possible bet-simulation you can think of no matter how simple or complicated it is.


With WinCraps you simply set up the conditions under which each element of a bet is carried out, whether it’s because it’s been 51 rolls since a 12-Midnight showed up so you now want to run a triple parlay on the Hopping Hard-4 or it’s the eighth hand in a row where a Come-Out 3-craps was thrown, so you now want to bet your entire bankroll on the Inside-numbers for two hits and then down....WinCraps will run whatever bet-method you want…including and especially ones that make a lot more sense than the two that I just mentioned.


Did I mention you can set it up for random rolls or for your own roll-tracked results?


That’s right, you can take your personally-tracked roll-files right out of BoneTracker and paste them into WinCraps in order to run bet-sims on your current toss-results or you can input them manually like you do with B-T.


It doesn’t matter what you want to do with your bets or what you use as a trigger to commence that wager action; you can get WinCraps to do it for you over hundreds, thousands, and even millions of simulated rolls.


That is, once you’ve got your bet-file configured to your liking, you can have WinCraps run roll-simulations to determine not only how much money you’ll win or lose per-roll, per-hour, per-session, per-lifetime; but you can also find out what the high-point, low-point, and average-point of your profit will be if you bet that way.


That would give you an excellent idea of not only how much a particular method would earn for you (based on your current D-I skills) over a given period of time (as measured by # of rolls or completed hands); but it would also indicate how deep your bankroll draw-downs would be, as well as showing you how high your corresponding profit-peaks would likely be.


For example, your bet-file 'tells' WinCraps what to bet, when to bet, and how to bet; such as "bet $x when this happens...do x when that happens, reduce this bet by $x and increase that one by $x when any of these following x events happen. On the C-O do this, during the point-cycle do that...when a PL-point is repeated do this...when a 7-Out occurs do that...when a C-O winner hits do this, that, and the other, etc.".


Setting up a bet-file is quite easy to do and it allows you to set up complete betting schemes, keep track of certain events or create statistics. Steen, the creator of WinCraps gave his kind permission to include his instructions on how to set up a bet-file:


“At the bottom of the Auto-Bet screen are five boxes that you use to create the bets you want. The basic idea is to build bets in two parts: Conditional parts and Action parts, with the understanding that if the Conditions become true then the Actions will be carried out. As you'll see, there's a lot of latitude in how you put bets together, but here's how the basic structure should look:


Basic structure:..............Example:
Start Condition................When ...
Condition.........................Next roll is a come-out roll
Start Action.....................then ...
Action..............................Bet $5 on Pass Line
Let's refer to the complete structure as an Auto-Bet.


The purpose for having separate Start Condition and Start Action lines is to enable you to assemble any number of Conditions and/or Actions beneath them. In other words, they mark the beginnings of Condition Blocks and Action Blocks. For example:


Multiple Conditions:..............Multiple Actions:
While......................................When ...
Next roll is a come-out roll.......Next roll is a come-out roll
Bankroll is greater than $50.....then ...
Place 6 is greater than $6........Bet $5 on Pass Line
...........................................then ...
...........................................Bet $1 on Any Craps
...........................................Bet $5 on Pass Line
...........................................Bet $1 on Field


In the first case, there are three condition lines that form one complete block. Each condition must evaluate true for the block to be considered true and for the subsequent action to take place. In other words, there's an implied "and" between each of the lines in the block. In the second case, there are three actions that form a block. Each one is carried out if the one condition line is true. Of course, Auto-Bets can include both multiple conditions and multiple actions.


Just as would happen in a casino, your bets are acted on in the order called - so order is important! For example:

While ............Bankroll is greater than $50
then ..............Bet $5 on Pass Line
While ............Pass Line has lost 3 times
then...............Bet $0 on Pass Line


If the conditions for both of these Auto-Bets were true then the result would be a $0 Pass Line bet. However, if you reversed their order, the result would be a $5 Pass Line bet. A number of editing features makes it easy to change and move your Auto-Bets.


There are two primary Start Conditions: 'When' and 'While' that are used to start Auto-Bets, and there are six additional Start Conditions: 'and when', 'and while', 'or when', 'or while', and 'x-or when', 'x-or while' that are used to modify them.


You should be able to build just about any betting scheme you want without resorting to overly complicated Auto-Bets.

Load any of the sample bet-files that are already included in WinCraps; for example 'Sample5.bet' is a complete betting strategy in only six lines! Or look at 'Sample3.bet' and 'Sample4.bet' to see how a more involved betting-method is structured, and you’ll see that each instruction-line in any individual Auto-Bets is fairly simple.”


Thanks Steen.


Folks, the reason I’m such a strong proponent for using WinCraps is because it lets you separate the truth about your current-skill player-edge from all the speculation, conjecture, and bullshit.


If you think your current betting-method holds up to scrutiny and is the best one for your current set of dice-influencing skills; then prove it to yourself. You can run concurrent side-by-side betting-methods against your tracked rolls to see exactly how one wagering-approach compares to the other.


For example, you can set up half a dozen different chip-stacks to represent six different betting-methods (or six different players) who are all individually betting on your tracked rolls at the same time).


~You could set up the bet-file for chip-stack #1 for how you currently bet your advantage.


~You could then set up chip-stacks # 2 and #3 with various bet-files that you’ve gleaned off the internet or ones that have been recommended by friends.


~Chip-stacks #4 and #5 could be set up to reflect the strongest-edge bets recommended by DiceTool, BoneTracker, or SmartCraps.


~Chip-stack #6 could be used to run various Steep Regressions, Power Presses, or Parlay-then-Off routines.


In any event, you can play around with various bet-schemes and run all kinds of bet-permutation trials to see if there is a better way to accomplish a higher-profit/lower-volatility result within the same risk-tolerance level you have right now, or perhaps you'll develop an entirely different approach that permits a bit more volatility while generating an even better profit-result.


It's all about using your CURRENT skill-set to generate the dice-influencing revenue that you deserve.


No agenda, no bullshit...just more profit in your pocket.


WinCraps also has the following game-advantage tools built right into it:


~EV (expected-value)/roll


~Standard Deviation/roll


~EV/decision


~Standard Deviation/decision


~EV/hour


In addition to those item, it also shows your edge over the house on an...


~Advantage/bet


~Advantage/number


~Difference from random on both an EV and roll-distribution basis


~Percentage of variance from random by (i) # of rolls, (ii) or as expected over a given set of sample rolls such as, x 4-5 left/right die-outcome 9's in a sampling of 250 rolls.


~Probability by dice-combo or final outcome...


...and as they say...much, much more.


In any event, WinCraps helps you determine how well or how poorly each betting-method will perform when the dice are in your advantaged hands.


To my mind, Using WinCraps to War-Game your Current D-I Skills Against Various Betting-Methods, is the best way to prove or disprove what you think your skills offer in terms of money-making capacity versus what they really do offer.


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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on March 24, 2007 10:28 AM.

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