...…and conversely; your bankroll determines how well you’ll be able to exploit any D-I edge you have developed.
~If you try to use too large of a percentage of your bankroll trying to maximize your profit on a bet where you have too little edge; then there is very little likelihood of emerging with a net-profit even though you’ve meticulously documented and confirmed your advantage.
Clearly, your edge and your bankroll not only go hand in hand, but they are also so closely tied together, that you have to structure your bets in symbiotic lock-step with your current bankroll.
Ø Failure to tie them together (in both the breadth and the depth of the bets that you make); pretty much guarantees your failure as an advantage-player even if you shoot the dice with an unbelievably large edge.
Let’s face it, most players are usually under-capitalized when they go to the casino, and still more have unrealistic profit expectations on the money that they do bring.
It is in those unrealistic expectations that modest profits are needlessly squandered and often times ignored in the temporarily blind pursuit of impractical win-objectives.
Ø Your edge over the casino determines how much of a chance you have in terms of coming out on top, and how much money you will likely need to reasonably do so.
Ø Bankroll size is a critical factor in determining which betting-methods (Flat, Regress, Press, etc.) and specific bet-types (PL w/Odds, Come, Place, Field, Props, etc.) are best suited to your profit objectives and risk-tolerance.
Most players let greed rule their decisions instead of common sense, so they ignore that ratio...and as a result, most of them have trouble surviving the casino battles.
If you have ever wondered why so many players come to these boards and then fade away (even though they get good enough at the physical part of dice-influencing); it's largely due to over-betting their bankroll and not being disciplined enough to stick to the bets where they have a confirmed advantage…and to ignore all of the ones where they don’t.
You may want to re-read that last paragraph again even though I’m not specifically talking about you.
HOW MUCH of a bankroll you have available to fund your advantage-play wagers should determine the breadth, depth and size of all the bets that you make.
If you don't have the money to comfortably make an Initial Steep Regression, then your gaming approach has to be modified down to a point where it is comfortable and you have just as good of a chance of winning; or better still,
Ø A wise advantage-player will wait until he accumulates a properly sized bankroll (in order to make the bets that his skill-based talent indicates he has the strongest advantage over); and he’ll stay away from the casino until he does.
I’m going to tell you something that most players don’t want to hear…
Insufficient Bankrolls Produce Insufficient Results
If you play without a sufficient amount of money; then there is an incredibly good chance that you won’t emerge from your sessions with a net-profit that is reflective of your current abilities. Worse still, an insufficient bankroll often means that your skill won’t even get a fighting chance to produce a net-profit before it is battered and shattered despite the fact that you have a substantial edge over the house.
In other words…
If you short-change your bankroll, you short-change your chances of winning.
So what constitutes a “sufficient” bankroll?
By using the Kelly Criterion to properly size our bets, it allows us to use what I would characterize as a "balanced approach". It's one which recognizes our desire to profitably exploit our edge over the house, and blends it with the need to preserve and grow our bankroll while avoiding risk-of-ruin.
As I explained in my book, your edge-per-ROLL on most bets will be about one-quarter to one-third of your edge-per-HAND; or expressed the opposite way, your edge-per-HAND will be three to four times higher than your edge-per-ROLL (except on one-roll prop-bets where the two figures will be the same because those types of bets get resolved one way another with each new outcome).
As such, your Kelly-based bet-sizing is based on your edge-per-ROLL, however as you know, there are limits as to how much of your total bankroll you should reasonably expose to any given wager, as well as limits on how much of your total bankroll you can reasonably apply across multiple wagers at the same time.
If you have, let's say, a 5% edge-per-HAND; then it probably equates to an edge-per-ROLL of between 1.25% and 1.66%, so that lower per-ROLL percentage is the amount of your total bankroll that you can reasonably wager on that bet.
However, if your advantage over the house reaches above the 2.5% edge-per-ROLL threshold; then you should restrict your 7-exposure on that one bet to 2.5% of your bankroll.
Likewise, if you have strong advantage over multiple wagers which each exceed 2.5% edge-per-roll; then the maximum cumulative amount that you should reasonably expose to a 7-Out would be capped at about 3.2% of your total gaming bankroll.
In other words, when you have a positive edge over multiple wagers (even if they all individually exceed 2.5% edge-per-roll); then you should still restrict the cumulative multi-wager 7-exposure amount to about 3.2% of your total bankroll in order to maintain that balance between profitably exploiting your edge, against the need to preserve and grow your bankroll...all the while avoiding risk-of-ruin.
Your EDGE Determines Your Bankroll Requirements…
...and conversely; your bankroll determines how well you’ll be able to exploit any D-I edge you have developed.
If you short-change your bankroll, you short-change your chances of winning.
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2007
