You Can't Shine a CowPatty...or CAN You?
Part Three
Part of the attractiveness of using the Iron Cross (Anythingbut7) bettingmethod is in the way it efficiently utilizes each and every non7 outcome that a diceinfluencer throws.
Since many players often find that their SignatureNumbers are a little
difficult to pin down, especially when using certain broadoutcomespectrum
diceset permutations (like the V2 or X6, for example); the IronCross makes
perfect sense for them and using a Steep Regression IC makes even
more sense.
Know What You Are Dealing With
Though the perwinninghit payout for the Iron Cross is somewhat diluted by the
constant replacement of the Fieldportion of the IronCross (if a nonField 5,
6, or 8 hits); that apparent shortcoming is somewhat compensated for because it
allows a player with lowdominance or nodominance SignatureNumber(s) (now
there's an oxymoron for you), to still consistently profit from each one
of his everythingbutthe7 results.
To understand where the Iron Cross fits into the whole averagepayoutperwinninghit equation; take a look at the average weightedpayout for each of these traditional multinumber globalbets when using $5 as your base betting unit:
Weighted PerHit Payout 

Globalbet 
$22 Inside 
$32 Across 
$20 Outside 
$22 Even 
$22 Iron Cross 

WeightedPayout 
$7.00 
$7.50 
$7.86 
$7.75 
$4.10 

ReturnonInvestment/Hit 
31.8% 
23.4% 
39.3% 
35.2% 
18.6% 

Hits Required to Breakeven 
3.14 
4.27 
2.54 
2.84 
5.37 

The reason I even mention all of this, is because it is important that you know, up front, that the Iron Cross is not usually at the top of a diceinfluencers dance card when it comes to advantageplay wagers because its rateofreturn is not only lower but its also slower in coming; however, that doesn't mean that it isn't profitable. Instead it merely trades some of it's profitability for an increased hitrate.
You have to decide for yourself if this tradeoff is appropriate for your gameplan as well as your gaming mindset.
When we do that, the resultant overall expected hitrate/pointcycle offers a glimpse at what may be some otherwise overlooked potential. Take a look:
Inside........18 outcomes out of 30 non7s = 60.0% pc hit rate
Across........24 outcomes out of 30 non7s = 80.0% pc hit rate
Outside......14 outcomes out of 30 non7s = 46.7% pc hit rate
Even..........16 outcomes out of 30 non7s = 53.3% pc hit rate
IronCross..30 outcomes out of 30 non7s = 100.0% pc hit rate
If we take a players pointcycle SRR and multiply it by these hitrate figures, we can determine how many times you are likely to hit each of these globalbets during your pointcycle and therefore determine how netprofitable each multinumber bet is likely to be.
In other words, if you really want to test the efficiency of your bets, you not
only have to look at their returnoninvestment on a perhit basis; but you
have to consider their total overall returnoninvestment over the entire
expected duration of your pointcycle.
Now admittedly this is a simplification to illustrate how rateofreturn when
measured on a perhit basis does not tell the whole advantageplay story, and
obviously you'll be best served by using the abovenoted software to verify
your particular edge; but the following example illustrates my point quite
nicely.
When you multiply a given SRRrate by the expected pointcycle hitrate you
determine how many paying hits each SRR is expected to generate during it's
average pointcycle.
SRR7....HitsperPointCycle...GrossRev...NetProfit...ROI/hand
Inside.............4.2..........$29.40......$7.40.......33.6%
Across.............5.6..........$42.00.....$10.00.......31.3%
Outside............3.3..........$25.94......$5.94.......29.7%
Even...............3.7..........$28.68......$6.68.......30.4%
IronCross.........7.0..........$28.70......$6.70.......30.5%
SRR8....HitsperPointCycle...GrossRev...NetProfit...ROI/hand
Inside.............4.8..........$33.60.....$11.60.......52.7%
Across.............6.4..........$48.00.....$16.00.......50.0%
Outside............3.7..........$29.08......$9.08.......45.4%
Even...............4.3..........$33.32.....$11.32.......51.5%
IronCross.........8.0..........$32.80.....$10.80.......49.1%
SRR9....HitsperPointCycle...GrossRev...NetProfit...ROI/hand
Inside.............5.4..........$37.80.....$15.80.......71.8%
Across.............7.2..........$54.00.....$22.00.......68.8%
Outside............4.2..........$33.01.....$13.01.......65.0%
Even...............4.8..........$37.20.....$15.20.......69.0%
IronCross.........9.0..........$36.90.....$14.90.......67.7%
When you look at each of these globalbets with an openminded perspective, the
bets that most people perceive to be subpar when compared to the
moreaccepted traditional multinumber wagers; you'll find that some are in
fact not only in the same league, but they're also pretty much on par with
their more timehonored and revered brethren.
Is There Unknown Value in Certain Types of Bets?
That's entirely up to you to decide, but it seems to me that some of them aren't quite as ugly as they've been portrayed as being by some fellow players who really should know better.
When it comes to rejecting certain bettingmethods out of hand; you may want to
look a little deeper than to blindly accept what you've always been taught to
believe.
With that caveat out of the way, let's jump right into what I would call a passive/aggressive Iron Cross method:
MP's TwoTiered Regression/StutterStep Parlay IronCross
The concept for this one is relatively simple.
It uses the basic pyramid style betweighting premise that I outlined in Ms. MP's FullSpread Iron Cross whereby you have only one unit on the Field, one unit each on the Placebet 4 and 10, two units each on the Placebet 5 and 9, and three units each on the Placebet 6 and 8.
My TwoTiered Regression/StutterStep Parlay IronCrosselevates everything to an entirely new height of profitmaking possibilities.
It does that by starting out with three units on the Field as well as three units each on the Placebet 4 and 10, six units each on the Placebet 5 and 9, and nine units each on the Placebet 6 and 8.
When we hit our optimal regression triggerpoint, we reduce each of those wagers by one unit, so we'd reduce our Fieldbet down to two units and we'd do the same in reducing our Placebet on the 4 and 10 down to two units each as well. Concurrently we'd reduce our 5 and 9 Placebet down to four units each and our 6 and 8 Placebet down to six units each.
Let's see how that looks so far (on a $5 table):
Initial bets:
Fieldbet $15
Placebet 4 and 10 $15
Placebet 5 and 9 $30
Placebet 6 and 8 $48
First regression:
Fieldbet $10
Placebet 4 and 10 $10
Placebet 5 and 9 $20
Placebet 6 and 8 $36
Second Regression:
Fieldbet $5
Placebet 4 and 10 $5
Placebet 5 and 9 $10
Placebet 6 and 8 $18
The regression is a pretty straightforward 3 down to 2 down to 1 reduction that uses the hitfrequency weighting where we have three units on the 6 & 8 for every two units on the 5 & 9, and one units on the 4 & 10 as well as one unit on the Field.
Before we get to the second part of my TwoTiered Regression/StutterStep Parlay IronCross bettingmethod, let me show you why we want to use a twotiered regression.
To do that, we look at the optimal triggerpoint at which you would regress your initially large starting Placebet and Fieldbet wagers down to a more mundane level in recognition of the fattest rollduration survival curve. The rollduration survival curve optimal triggerpoint is just a fancy way of indicating the number of pointcycle rolls where the supermajority of your hands will last to.
Heres what it looks like in chart form:
Iron Cross RollDuration Bet SurvivalRate 

Iron Cross Hitrate (Your chances of receiving a winning payout BEFORE a 7Out) 
Random SRR 6 IC Bet SurvivalRate 
SRR 7 IC Bet SurvivalRate 
SRR 8 IC Bet SurvivalRate 
SRR 9 IC Bet SurvivalRate 
1 
83.33% 
85.72% 
87.50% 
88.89% 
2 
69.44% 
73.47% 
76.56% 
79.01% 
3 
57.86% 
62.97% 
66.99% 
70.24% 
4 
48.22% 
53.97% 
58.62% 
62.43% 
5 
40.18% 
46.26% 
51.29% 
55.50% 
6 
33.48% 
39.65% 
44.88% 
49.33% 
7 
27.90% 
33.98% 
39.27% 
43.85% 
8 
23.25% 
29.13% 
34.36% 
38.98% 
9 
19.37% 
24.97% 
30.07% 
34.65% 
10 
16.14% 
21.40% 
26.31% 
30.80% 
11 
13.45% 
18.34% 
23.02% 
27.38% 
12 
11.21% 
15.72% 
20.14% 
24.34% 
When you put all of that into dollars and cents, it's easy to see why the IronCross is a negativeexpectation bet in the hands of a randomroller, but netpositive in the hands of a diceinfluencer:
$22 Iron CrossExpected Flatbet WinRate 

Expected Profit/Roll 
Random SRR 6 
SRR 7 
SRR 8 
SRR 9 

Iron Crossto7s Ratio 
5:1 
6:1 
7:1 
8:1 

1 
$4.10 
$4.10 
$4.10 
$4.10 

2 
$4.10 
$4.10 
$4.10 
$4.10 

3 
$4.10 
$4.10 
$4.10 
$4.10 

4 
$4.10 
$4.10 
$4.10 
$4.10 

5 
$4.10 
$4.10 
$4.10 
$4.10 

6 
 
$4.10 
$4.10 
$4.10 

7 
 
 
$4.10 
$4.10 

8 
 
 
 
$4.10 

Total Expected Payout 
$20.50 
$24.60 
$28.70 
$32.80 

Remaining Wager 
$22.00 
$22.00 
$22.00 
$22.00 

NetProfit 
$1.50 
$2.60 
$6.70 
$10.80 

ReturnonInvestment 
6.82% 
11.82% 
30.45% 
49.09% 

So what does that have to do with my TwoTiered Regression/StutterStep Parlay IronCross??
Well it shows us (dependant upon our SRRrate) where the two most critical optimal regression points are in each hand.
Optimal Initial TriggerPoint for an IronCross Regression 

Paying Hits (Before regressing) 
Random SRR 6 
SRR 7 
SRR 8 
SRR 9 
1 
 
X 
X 
X 
2 
 
X 
X 
X 
3 
 
 
X 
X 
4 
 
 
 
X 
The above chart shows us where the optimal first regression should take place (after two IC hits for the SRR7 shooter, after three IC hits for the SRR8 shooter, and after four IC paying hits for the SRR9 shooter). Needless to say the IronCross is remains in negativeexpectation territory for the randomroller no matter what he does or doesnt do with any of his bets on the table.
So now that we know where the first optimal regression point is, let's determine where the second most likely place would be.
In this case its even easier to find because our SRRrate determines it in a straightline fashion. That is our SevenstoRolls Ratio tells us directly how many rolls and (with the Anythingbut7 IronCross method) how many betpaying rolls our pointcycles will last.
Iron CrosstoSevens Ratio 

Random SRR 6 
SRR 7 
SRR 8 
SRR 9 

Iron Cross to Total Outcomes 
30outof36 
30.86 
31.5 
32out of36 

PerRoll Probability 
83.33% 
85.72% 
87.50% 
88.89% 

Iron Cross  to7s Ratio 
5:1 
6:1 
7:1 
8:1 

For the SRR7 shooter, he'll enjoy an average of seven pointcycle rolls before he 7'sout, while the SRR8 shooter will toss an average of eight IronCross paying rolls before 7'ingOut, and so on with the nine expected rolls for the SRR9 shooter.
In knowing how long onaverage our SRRdetermined pointcycle will last, we also learn where the second most opportune spot to trigger a further regression would be.
That brings us to the second tier of our IronCross regression.
Let's take a look at this in practical terms and I think it will clear up how and why my TwoTiered Regression/StutterStep Parlay IronCross works so well:
$110 Iron Cross Flatbet vs. $110 Iron Cross regressed to $22 Iron Cross 

SRR 7 
SRR 8 
SRR 9 

$110 Iron Cross Flatbet NetProfit/Hand 
$13.00 
$33.50 
$54.00 
$110 Iron Cross Regressed to $22 Iron Cross Profit/Hand 
$21.58 
$41.90 
$62.28 
$Difference 
$8.58 
$8.40 
$8.28 
Increased ReturnonInvestment when using my TwoTiered Regression/StutterStep Parlay IronCross 
37.8% 
20.0% 
13.3% 
When a skilled diceinfluencer attaches a classic regression to the classic Iron Cross play; he ends up with a betting method that not only brings a very high hitrate efficiency to the money that he has on the layout, but it also brings a rateofreturn that rivals, if not surpasses, many of the more traditionally accepted multinumber global bets in overall performance.
The StutterStep Parlay
Since an SRR7 shooters pointcycle lasts an average of seven rolls; he would get an average of five more hits at the postoptimalregression level before his average pointcycle rollduration catches up to expectation.
Now obviously, it's not always going to work out to exactly seven pointcycle
rolls per hand; some will obviously be much shorter and that is why the
firststage of this method is so important.
It lets you get a profit off of the table in all but the shortest of shortduration hands. However, ON AVERAGE
a SRR7 shooter will throw approximately seven pointcycle rolls per hand, so
that is where the second regression stage of this bettingmethod comes into
play...and why this approach produces a netprofit most often.
Once a shooter gets beyond both the first and secondtier regression, he
is able to use the added flexibility of lockedin profit to really stretch the
bounds of profitability when his hand continues to roll along.
This is where we enter the StutterStep Parlay phase of my TwoTiered Regression/StutterStep Parlay IronCross.
On the first paying hit after your secondtier regression, you employ what I
would term a collect a bet, then parlay the next
boxnumber to hit, then collect another hit, and then parlay the next
boxnumber to hit after that method.
Lets take a look at this in practical terms to see how it works and why
it works so well:
~The first time any one of your
Placebets hit after the secondtier regression; you are going to collect that
payout, but when the next Placebet hits, no matter which one it is, you
parlay it on the boxnumber that just rolled.
~For example, with a subsequent hit on
the $5 Placebet 4 or 10, wed parlay $5 of its $9 payout. For a hit on our
$10 Placebet 5 or 9, wed parlay $10 of its $14 payout; and for a hit on our
$18 Placebet 6 or 8, wed parlay $18 of its $21 payout directly on the one
that just hit.
~From there, we collect the next payer
before parlaying the next one after that on the boxnumber that hits.
~If for example, our Placebet 5 was now
at $20, we'd parlay $20 more of its $28 payout to make it look like $40.
If it hits again, we collect the full $56 payout, but the next time after that, we'd
use $50 of its payout to parlay the wager to $90. When it hits again we'd rack
the entire $126 payout, but the time after that we'd parlay $125 of it so our
Placebet 5 would now look like $215...where a paying hit would pay a toberacked
$301. On it's next hit, we'd parlay all but $1 of that payout and the 5 would
now have $515 in Placebet action on it. That pays $721.
Let's look at what happens to your $36 Placebet on the 6 after the next hit
that pays $49.
You would parlay $48 of the second $49 payoff to make your bet
look like $84.
When the 6 shows up again, you rack the full payoff of $98, but
when it hits again at that level you parlay all but $2 of it.
Your Placebet 6 would now be at the $180 level and would pay $210 on the next hit. On the 6hit subsequent to that, you'd parlay the entire payout to bring it up to the $390
level. That pays $455 on the next round of collections, but on the hit after
that, you'd parlay all but $5 of it to bring your Placebet action on the 6 to
the $840 level. That pays $980.
That, my friends, is how my TwoTiered
Regression/StutterStep Parlay IronCross works.
It produces a quick lockedin profit right off of the fattest part of your
rollduration survivalcurve, it recognizes the average length of your SRRbased
hand, and utilizes that to produce even more "average hand" profit.
From there it kicks your profitpotential into highgear by using an everyotherpayout
approach to parlay your bets to fairly high levels within a fairly short
time...all the while letting you fully rack the profit off of the alternating
paying hits.
All in all, its a passiveaggressive way to take full advantage of all your
short, medium, and longduration hands while almost always generating a
netprofit no matter how ON or OFF your shooting is during a
given session.
Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tablesand in Life.
Sincerely,
The Mad Professor
Copyright 2007