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You Can't Shine a Cow-Patty... or CAN You (Part 3)

You Can't Shine a Cow-Patty...or CAN You?

Part Three

Part of the attractiveness of using the Iron Cross (Anything-but-7) betting-method is in the way it efficiently utilizes each and every non-7 outcome that a dice-influencer throws.


Since many players often find that their Signature-Numbers are a little difficult to pin down, especially when using certain broad-outcome-spectrum dice-set permutations (like the V-2 or X-6, for example); the Iron-Cross makes perfect sense for them and using a Steep Regression I-C makes even more sense.

Know What You Are Dealing With


Though the per-winning-hit payout for the Iron Cross is somewhat diluted by the constant replacement of the Field-portion of the Iron-Cross (if a non-Field 5, 6, or 8 hits); that apparent shortcoming is somewhat compensated for because it allows a player with low-dominance or no-dominance Signature-Number(s) (now there's an oxymoron for you), to still consistently profit from each one of his everything-but-the-7 results.

To understand where the Iron Cross fits into the whole average-payout-per-winning-hit equation; take a look at the average weighted-payout for each of these traditional multi-number global-bets when using $5 as your base betting unit:

Weighted Per-Hit Payout

Global-bet

$22 Inside

$32 Across

$20 Outside

$22

Even

$22

Iron Cross

Weighted-Payout

$7.00

$7.50

$7.86

$7.75

$4.10

Return-on-Investment/Hit

31.8%

23.4%

39.3%

35.2%

18.6%

Hits Required to Break-even

3.14

4.27

2.54

2.84

5.37

The reason I even mention all of this, is because it is important that you know, up front, that the Iron Cross is not usually at the top of a dice-influencers dance card when it comes to advantage-play wagers because its rate-of-return is not only lower but its also slower in coming; however, that doesn't mean that it isn't profitable. Instead it merely trades some of it's profitability for an increased hit-rate.

You have to decide for yourself if this trade-off is appropriate for your game-plan as well as your gaming mindset.

When we do that, the resultant overall expected hit-rate/point-cycle offers a glimpse at what may be some otherwise overlooked potential. Take a look:


Inside........18 outcomes out of 30 non-7s = 60.0% p-c hit rate
Across........24 outcomes out of 30 non-7s = 80.0% p-c hit rate
Outside......14 outcomes out of 30 non-7s = 46.7% p-c hit rate
Even..........16 outcomes out of 30 non-7s = 53.3% p-c hit rate
Iron-Cross..30 outcomes out of 30 non-7s = 100.0% p-c hit rate


If we take a players point-cycle SRR and multiply it by these hit-rate figures, we can determine how many times you are likely to hit each of these global-bets during your point-cycle and therefore determine how net-profitable each multi-number bet is likely to be.



In other words, if you really want to test the efficiency of your bets, you not only have to look at their return-on-investment on a per-hit basis; but you have to consider their total overall return-on-investment over the entire expected duration of your point-cycle.



Now admittedly this is a simplification to illustrate how rate-of-return when measured on a per-hit basis does not tell the whole advantage-play story, and obviously you'll be best served by using the above-noted software to verify your particular edge; but the following example illustrates my point quite nicely.


When you multiply a given SRR-rate by the expected point-cycle hit-rate you determine how many paying hits each SRR is expected to generate during it's average point-cycle.



SRR-7....Hits-per-Point-Cycle...GrossRev...Net-Profit...ROI/hand
Inside.............4.2..........$29.40......$7.40.......33.6%
Across.............5.6..........$42.00.....$10.00.......31.3%
Outside............3.3..........$25.94......$5.94.......29.7%
Even...............3.7..........$28.68......$6.68.......30.4%
Iron-Cross.........7.0..........$28.70......$6.70.......30.5%



SRR-8....Hits-per-Point-Cycle...GrossRev...Net-Profit...ROI/hand
Inside.............4.8..........$33.60.....$11.60.......52.7%
Across.............6.4..........$48.00.....$16.00.......50.0%
Outside............3.7..........$29.08......$9.08.......45.4%
Even...............4.3..........$33.32.....$11.32.......51.5%
Iron-Cross.........8.0..........$32.80.....$10.80.......49.1%



SRR-9....Hits-per-Point-Cycle...GrossRev...Net-Profit...ROI/hand
Inside.............5.4..........$37.80.....$15.80.......71.8%
Across.............7.2..........$54.00.....$22.00.......68.8%
Outside............4.2..........$33.01.....$13.01.......65.0%
Even...............4.8..........$37.20.....$15.20.......69.0%
Iron-Cross.........9.0..........$36.90.....$14.90.......67.7%


When you look at each of these global-bets with an open-minded perspective, the bets that most people perceive to be sub-par when compared to the more-accepted traditional multi-number wagers; you'll find that some are in fact not only in the same league, but they're also pretty much on par with their more time-honored and revered brethren.

Is There Unknown Value in Certain Types of Bets?

That's entirely up to you to decide, but it seems to me that some of them aren't quite as ugly as they've been portrayed as being by some fellow players who really should know better.


When it comes to rejecting certain betting-methods out of hand; you may want to look a little deeper than to blindly accept what you've always been taught to believe.

With that caveat out of the way, let's jump right into what I would call a passive/aggressive Iron Cross method:

MP's Two-Tiered Regression/Stutter-Step Parlay Iron-Cross

The concept for this one is relatively simple.

It uses the basic pyramid style bet-weighting premise that I outlined in Ms. MP's Full-Spread Iron Cross whereby you have only one unit on the Field, one unit each on the Place-bet 4 and 10, two units each on the Place-bet 5 and 9, and three units each on the Place-bet 6 and 8.

My Two-Tiered Regression/Stutter-Step Parlay Iron-Crosselevates everything to an entirely new height of profit-making possibilities.

It does that by starting out with three units on the Field as well as three units each on the Place-bet 4 and 10, six units each on the Place-bet 5 and 9, and nine units each on the Place-bet 6 and 8.

When we hit our optimal regression trigger-point, we reduce each of those wagers by one unit, so we'd reduce our Field-bet down to two units and we'd do the same in reducing our Place-bet on the 4 and 10 down to two units each as well. Concurrently we'd reduce our 5 and 9 Place-bet down to four units each and our 6 and 8 Place-bet down to six units each.

Let's see how that looks so far (on a $5 table):

Initial bets:

Field-bet $15

Place-bet 4 and 10 $15

Place-bet 5 and 9 $30

Place-bet 6 and 8 $48

First regression:

Field-bet $10

Place-bet 4 and 10 $10

Place-bet 5 and 9 $20

Place-bet 6 and 8 $36

Second Regression:

Field-bet $5

Place-bet 4 and 10 $5

Place-bet 5 and 9 $10

Place-bet 6 and 8 $18

The regression is a pretty straight-forward 3 down to 2 down to 1 reduction that uses the hit-frequency weighting where we have three units on the 6 & 8 for every two units on the 5 & 9, and one units on the 4 & 10 as well as one unit on the Field.

Before we get to the second part of my Two-Tiered Regression/Stutter-Step Parlay Iron-Cross betting-method, let me show you why we want to use a two-tiered regression.

To do that, we look at the optimal trigger-point at which you would regress your initially large starting Place-bet and Field-bet wagers down to a more mundane level in recognition of the fattest roll-duration survival curve. The roll-duration survival curve optimal trigger-point is just a fancy way of indicating the number of point-cycle rolls where the super-majority of your hands will last to.

Heres what it looks like in chart form:

Iron Cross Roll-Duration

Bet Survival-Rate

Iron Cross

Hit-rate

(Your chances of receiving a winning payout BEFORE a 7-Out)

Random SRR 6

I-C Bet

Survival-Rate

SRR 7

I-C Bet

Survival-Rate

SRR 8

I-C Bet

Survival-Rate

SRR 9

I-C Bet

Survival-Rate

1

83.33%

85.72%

87.50%

88.89%

2

69.44%

73.47%

76.56%

79.01%

3

57.86%

62.97%

66.99%

70.24%

4

48.22%

53.97%

58.62%

62.43%

5

40.18%

46.26%

51.29%

55.50%

6

33.48%

39.65%

44.88%

49.33%

7

27.90%

33.98%

39.27%

43.85%

8

23.25%

29.13%

34.36%

38.98%

9

19.37%

24.97%

30.07%

34.65%

10

16.14%

21.40%

26.31%

30.80%

11

13.45%

18.34%

23.02%

27.38%

12

11.21%

15.72%

20.14%

24.34%

When you put all of that into dollars and cents, it's easy to see why the Iron-Cross is a negative-expectation bet in the hands of a random-roller, but net-positive in the hands of a dice-influencer:

$22 Iron Cross
Expected Flat-bet Win-Rate

Expected Profit/Roll

Random SRR 6

SRR 7

SRR 8

SRR 9

Iron Cross-to-7s Ratio

5:1

6:1

7:1

8:1

1

$4.10

$4.10

$4.10

$4.10

2

$4.10

$4.10

$4.10

$4.10

3

$4.10

$4.10

$4.10

$4.10

4

$4.10

$4.10

$4.10

$4.10

5

$4.10

$4.10

$4.10

$4.10

6

-

$4.10

$4.10

$4.10

7

-

-

$4.10

$4.10

8

-

-

-

$4.10

Total Expected Payout

$20.50

$24.60

$28.70

$32.80

Remaining Wager

$22.00

$22.00

$22.00

$22.00

Net-Profit

-$1.50

$2.60

$6.70

$10.80

Return-on-Investment

-6.82%

11.82%

30.45%

49.09%

So what does that have to do with my Two-Tiered Regression/Stutter-Step Parlay Iron-Cross??

Well it shows us (dependant upon our SRR-rate) where the two most critical optimal regression points are in each hand.

Optimal Initial Trigger-Point

for an Iron-Cross Regression

Paying Hits (Before regressing)

Random SRR 6

SRR 7

SRR 8

SRR 9

1

-

X

X

X

2

-

X

X

X

3

-

-

X

X

4

-

-

-

X

The above chart shows us where the optimal first regression should take place (after two I-C hits for the SRR-7 shooter, after three I-C hits for the SRR-8 shooter, and after four I-C paying hits for the SRR-9 shooter). Needless to say the Iron-Cross is remains in negative-expectation territory for the random-roller no matter what he does or doesnt do with any of his bets on the table.

So now that we know where the first optimal regression point is, let's determine where the second most likely place would be.

In this case its even easier to find because our SRR-rate determines it in a straight-line fashion. That is our Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio tells us directly how many rolls and (with the Anything-but-7 Iron-Cross method) how many bet-paying rolls our point-cycles will last.

Iron Cross-to-Sevens Ratio

Random SRR 6

SRR 7

SRR 8

SRR 9

Iron Cross to Total Outcomes

30-out-of-36

30.86

31.5

32-out-

of-36

Per-Roll

Probability

83.33%

85.72%

87.50%

88.89%

Iron Cross -

to-7s Ratio

5:1

6:1

7:1

8:1

For the SRR-7 shooter, he'll enjoy an average of seven point-cycle rolls before he 7's-out, while the SRR-8 shooter will toss an average of eight Iron-Cross paying rolls before 7'ing-Out, and so on with the nine expected rolls for the SRR-9 shooter.

In knowing how long on-average our SRR-determined point-cycle will last, we also learn where the second most opportune spot to trigger a further regression would be.

That brings us to the second tier of our Iron-Cross regression.

Let's take a look at this in practical terms and I think it will clear up how and why my Two-Tiered Regression/Stutter-Step Parlay Iron-Cross works so well:

$110 Iron Cross Flat-bet

vs.

$110 Iron Cross

regressed to $22 Iron Cross

SRR 7

SRR 8

SRR 9

$110 Iron Cross

Flat-bet

Net-Profit/Hand

$13.00

$33.50

$54.00

$110 Iron Cross Regressed

to $22 Iron Cross Profit/Hand

$21.58

$41.90

$62.28

$-Difference

$8.58

$8.40

$8.28

Increased

Return-on-Investment

when using my

Two-Tiered Regression/Stutter-Step Parlay Iron-Cross

37.8%

20.0%

13.3%

When a skilled dice-influencer attaches a classic regression to the classic Iron Cross play; he ends up with a betting method that not only brings a very high hit-rate efficiency to the money that he has on the layout, but it also brings a rate-of-return that rivals, if not surpasses, many of the more traditionally accepted multi-number global bets in overall performance.

The Stutter-Step Parlay

Since an SRR-7 shooters point-cycle lasts an average of seven rolls; he would get an average of five more hits at the post-optimal-regression level before his average point-cycle roll-duration catches up to expectation.


Now obviously, it's not always going to work out to exactly seven point-cycle rolls per hand; some will obviously be much shorter and that is why the first-stage of this method is so important. It lets you get a profit off of the table in all but the shortest of short-duration hands. However, ON AVERAGE a SRR-7 shooter will throw approximately seven point-cycle rolls per hand, so that is where the second regression stage of this betting-method comes into play...and why this approach produces a net-profit most often.


Once a shooter gets beyond both the first and second-tier regression, he is able to use the added flexibility of locked-in profit to really stretch the bounds of profitability when his hand continues to roll along.


This is where we enter the Stutter-Step Parlay phase of my Two-Tiered Regression/Stutter-Step Parlay Iron-Cross.


On the first paying hit after your second-tier regression, you employ what I would term a collect a bet, then parlay the next box-number to hit, then collect another hit, and then parlay the next box-number to hit after that method.


Lets take a look at this in practical terms to see how it works and why it works so well:


~The first time any one of your Place-bets hit after the second-tier regression; you are going to collect that payout, but when the next Place-bet hits, no matter which one it is, you parlay it on the box-number that just rolled.


~For example, with a subsequent hit on the $5 Place-bet 4 or 10, wed parlay $5 of its $9 payout. For a hit on our $10 Place-bet 5 or 9, wed parlay $10 of its $14 payout; and for a hit on our $18 Place-bet 6 or 8, wed parlay $18 of its $21 payout directly on the one that just hit.


~From there, we collect the next payer before parlaying the next one after that on the box-number that hits.



~If for example, our Place-bet 5 was now at $20, we'd parlay $20 more of its $28 payout to make it look like $40. If it hits again, we collect the full $56 payout, but the next time after that, we'd use $50 of its payout to parlay the wager to $90. When it hits again we'd rack the entire $126 payout, but the time after that we'd parlay $125 of it so our Place-bet 5 would now look like $215...where a paying hit would pay a to-be-racked $301. On it's next hit, we'd parlay all but $1 of that payout and the 5 would now have $515 in Place-bet action on it. That pays $721.


Let's look at what happens to your $36 Place-bet on the 6 after the next hit that pays $49. You would parlay $48 of the second $49 payoff to make your bet look like $84. When the 6 shows up again, you rack the full payoff of $98, but when it hits again at that level you parlay all but $2 of it. Your Place-bet 6 would now be at the $180 level and would pay $210 on the next hit. On the 6-hit subsequent to that, you'd parlay the entire payout to bring it up to the $390 level. That pays $455 on the next round of collections, but on the hit after that, you'd parlay all but $5 of it to bring your Place-bet action on the 6 to the $840 level. That pays $980.


That, my friends, is how my Two-Tiered Regression/Stutter-Step Parlay Iron-Cross works.


It produces a quick locked-in profit right off of the fattest part of your roll-duration survival-curve, it recognizes the average length of your SRR-based hand, and utilizes that to produce even more "average hand" profit.


From there it kicks your profit-potential into high-gear by using an every-other-payout approach to parlay your bets to fairly high levels within a fairly short time...all the while letting you fully rack the profit off of the alternating paying hits.


All in all, its a passive-aggressive way to take full advantage of all your short, medium, and long-duration hands while almost always generating a net-profit no matter how ON or OFF your shooting is during a given session.

Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tablesand in Life.

Sincerely,

The Mad Professor

Copyright 2007

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on April 24, 2007 5:21 PM.

The previous post in this blog was You Can't Shine a Cow-Patty... or CAN You (Part 2).

The next post in this blog is Do you think of yourself as an average Joe...

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