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MP's ODDS S-T-R-E-T-C-H-E-R…a Force-Multiplier for your Current Skills

Now that we’ve resolved that the Stack ‘em Don’t Rack ‘em method is nowhere close to being the “mathematically sound winning strategy” that many players think it is (it’s actually at least 40% less advantageous for players who use it than for those who don’t); we can move on to a clear-headed and serious discussion about the use of Odds.


What is the ODDS S-T-R-E-T-C-H-E-R?



This method begins with an equal or near-equal Doey-Don’t wager.




Ø An example of an equal or offsetting Doey-Don’t would be one where you wager let’s say $25 on the Pass-line and $25 on the Don’t Pass-line.




Ø An example of an unequal or partially-offset Doey-Don’t would be one where you wager let’s say $30 on the Pass-line and $25 on the Don’t Pass-line. In this case there is a $5 difference between the two flat wagers.




Ø The house-edge against a random-roller using this bet is -1.4%, and it is exacted against the entire value of the combined flat-portion of the Doey-Don’t wager. The amount of dice-influencing skill required to overcome that house-advantage is just under SRR-6.2





How Does the ODDS STRETCHER Work?




Once the PL-Point is established, we back our Doey-Don’t bet with as much Odds as we are comfortably able to afford. For today’s discussion we’ll focus on Rightside betting, and leave the whole Darkside discussion for another time.


Ø Let’s say we establish the 9 as the Point in a casino that allows 3x/4x/5x-odds.

Ø We’ve wagered an unequal Doey-Don’t of $30 on the Pass-line and $25 on the Don’t Pass. That means we can back our $30 Pass-line bet with up to four-times its value in Odds ($120) if we so choose. 


Ø Since there is only a $5 difference between our PL-bet and our DP-bet, we effectively have 24x-Odds backing up our Passline wager (though in fact it is still only 4-times our actual PL-wager). 


Ø Now in random-roller reality, that total wager will still be in negative-expectation territory (even though neither the house nor the random-roller has any edge on the Odds portion of the wager; the house gets it’s pound of flesh from the flat-portion of each line-bet).



However, in the hands of even the lowest skilled dice-influencer (SRR-6.2); my
Odds-Stretcher acts as a significant force-multiplier for those very modest de-randomizing skills; so as you'll see in a moment, minimizing the value of your line-bet and maximizing the value of your Odds-bet makes incredibly great economic sense.




Ø Additionally, my Odds-Stretcher reduces the impact of volatility on the basic even-money-paying (1:1) line-bet for the Come-Out portion of your hand, and let’s you put more of your wagering-weight on the higher-paying (2.0:1, 1.5:1, and 1.2:1) Odds portion of it once the Point is established.



Let’s find out why it works so well even in the unexceptional hands of a SRR-6.2 or better dice-influencer.






Why Does the ODDS S-T-R-E-T-C-H-E-R Work So Well?

The strength of my Doey-Don't Odds S-T-R-E-T-C-H-E-R is that it allows the precision-shooter to put more of his money on the higher-paying, higher-ROI Odds portion of his bet, and a relatively smaller proportional amount of it on the lower-paying, lower-ROI flat-bet part.



That is achieved by having a relatively small differential between the flat portion of his
PL-bet and his DP-bet. This approach can also work quite well even where the table-minimum is far beyond what the player would normally be comfortable at if he weren't able to make offsetting or nearly-offsetting line-bets. For example, you could play at a $50 minimum-bet table (with a partially offsetting $55 PL and $50 DP Doey-Don’t)

Ø The value difference between the profit potential of the flat portion of a D-I's line-bet versus the Odds portion of his wager that backs it up, is where the ROI (return-on-investment) difference can be quite staggering.




Ø If a dice-influencer has an edge over a given PL-Point; and the more Odds he can back that Point with, then the greater his skill will be rewarded due to the force-multiplier effect.



Stated another way,
the bigger the difference between the amount of money a dice-influencer has on the Passline versus the amount he backs it with in Odds; the greater his return on investment. 



The Doey-Don't helps him
maximize that force-multiplier difference not only on high-denomination tables, but also in casinos that only offer lowly 2x-Odds or 3x4x5x-Odds and where he wants to artificially 'raise' those posted Odds to boost the force-multiplier effect of his skills.



Wagering more of your money on a
higher-return investment (the Odds) while minimizing the at-risk amount on a lower-return investment (the Passline) makes good economic sense, and that is exactly what the skilled dice-influencer is doing when he uses my Doey-Don't Odds Stretcher.


To illustrate what I’m talking about, let’s take a look at the summarized BoneTracker/DiceTool Foundation Frequencies for one of our fellow board-members. 



You'll see that depending on the PL-Point he establishes, and the dice-set he uses for his point-cycle shooting; the difference between his edge over the
flat portion of his line-bet pales in comparison to his edge on any Odds that he backs the Point with.


…and before you start thinking that this example is an exception to illustrate my point; it is not. 



In fact
, if your dice-influencing gives you ANY edge over any PL-Point; then your edge will ALWAYS be higher on your ODDS bet than it is on the FLAT portion of it.

In which case; of the money you can comfortably afford to wager on a combined PL w/Odds wager…you'll want the
MOST of it on Odds and the LEAST of it on the flat line-bet itself.


Take a look this shooters roll-stats to see what I mean:

Picture 5-12


Using the
V-3 dice-set:




Ø
This shooter has a 3.2% edge over the flat portion of his Passline bet. When backing the PL-Point with Odds, he garners a 9.5% edge when the Point is 4 or 10, a 12.4% edge when the Point is either 5 or 9, and a 11.6% edge when the PL-Point is a 6 or an 8.




Switching over to the
V-2 dice-set:




Ø
This shooter has a lower 2.1% edge over the flat portion of his Passline bet. However, when backing the PL-Point with Odds, he gains a much larger 15.0% edge when the Point is 4 or 10, but a lower 7.0% edge when the Point is either 5 or 9, and it also drops to a still-decent 9.1% edge when the PL-Point is a 6 or an 8.




The big surprise comes from the
Parallel-Sixes (P-6) dice-set with the 6/6 on top and the 4/4 facing you:


Ø While the flat portion of his Passline bet is essentially break-even, the Odds portion provides some staggering opportunities for this shooter. For example, when the PL-Point is either 4 or 10, Odds offer him a 17.9% edge over the house. Similarly, when the Point is 5 or 9, he’s got an 11.5% edge. When the Point is either 6 or 8 however, his edge is only 2.9%, so he'd probably only want to use the P-6 only as a sniper-set when the PL-Point is 4 or 10.





What Does It All Mean?


Since the house-edge against the flat portion of the combined Doey-Don't wager that a D-I has to overcome is still a quite manageable 1.4% (and is not doubled as some have suggested); and the more Odds a dice-influencer can wager in relation to the difference (if any) between his simultaneous Doey-Don't PL and DP bet; the higher the effective Odds-ratio that he is achieving. 



More importantly though is the fact that the D-I gets a far superior return-on-investment on his Odds that he can possibly get from the flat portion of his line-bet...and that's the main strength of my
Doey-Don't Odds Stretcher.





What About Volatility?


The concern voiced most frequently about betting Odds, is the whole discussion of volatility.

Ø When you throw a 7-Out, both your flat line-bet as well as your Odds-bet loses at the same time.




Ø When it wins, your line-bet pays 1:1 even-money.




Ø When it wins, the Odds portion of your bet pays 2:1 when the PL-Point is a 4 or 10, 1.5:1 (3:2) when the PL-Point is a 5 or 9, and 1.2:1 (6:5) when the PL-Point is a 6 or 8.



No one needs to tell you that all of those payback-rates are better than the 1:1 even-money payout for the flat portion of your PL-wager.



However, having an edge over the house does not guarantee that every hand you throw during every session you play will be a winning one; and frankly if you go Point-then-7-Out…then a loss is still a loss.


The thing to keep in mind though, is that your player-advantage will manifest itself over a somewhat longer run than one or even two hands, so you can’t take the attitude that just because you lost one or two hands where you wagered Odds and it lost; that betting Odds doesn’t work. Otherwise, you wouldn’t repeat making ANY bets that lost for you more than once or twice.





How Long Does it Take For an Advantage Over the Odds-bet to Prove Itself Out?


Well that really depends on how big of an edge you actually have.




Ø If it's a small edge (of let's say 1% to 2%); then it will probably take many trials before the back and forth volatility that it will likely endure is smoothed out by the large sample of decisions.


Ø If it's a larger edge (of let's say 3% to 6%); then it will probably take significantly fewer trials before the expected back-and-forth volatility is smoothed out enough by a somewhat smaller sampling of decisions.


Ø If it's an even larger edge (of let's say 7% to 20% or even higher); then it will take way fewer trials over a much smaller sampling of decisions for the player-advantage to manifest itself.





The higher your edge, the fewer bet-trials it takes for your advantage to prove itself out, and the lower your bet-volatility will be.



Again though, having an edge over the house does not guarantee that every hand you throw during every session you play will be a winning one.



The objective of my
Doey-Don't Odds Stretcher is NOT to encourage a dice-influencer to wager more than his skill or bankroll or comfort-level reasonably merits. Instead, the objective is to encourage the modestly skilled shooter to take some of the money that he is already comfortably spreading on lower-edge, lower-return wagers, and redeploy some of it to a higher-edge, higher-return Odds wager.


Again, the LOWER your player-edge on a given wager, the HIGHER the volatility you'll likely endure; and the HIGHER your player-edge on a given wager, the LOWER the volatility swings you'll likely have to suffer through.


Put simply, a dice-influencer who bets on a
higher-edge, higher-return wager will likely suffer LESS volatility for the SAME dollars wagered than if he was deploying the same money on a lower-edge, lower-return bet.




In the hands of a dice-influencer that is playing with an edge over a given box-number; Odds money on that number will always offer a higher rate-of-return than if the same money was wagered on the corresponding Place-bet.




The Added Benefit of Lowering the Cost of an Expensive Table


You can artificially LOWER the table-minimum by simply placing an almost-equal bet on both the Pass-Line and the Don’t Pass.


For example, you could put a table-minimum bet on the Don’t Pass and a bet on the Pass-Line that is the table-min plus the amount that you are comfortable in actually wagering (let’s say
$25 on the DP and $26 on the PL).


At a 3x, 4x, 5x table with the above-noted wager, you could instantly turn those allowable Odds into 78x, 104x, and 130x-Odds simply because of how you’ve used offsetting PL and DP wagers.



As I noted previously though, the house-edge against this bet is
-1.4%, and it is exacted against the entire value of the combined flat-portion of the Doey-Don’t wager. However, the level of dice-influencing skill required to overcome that house-advantage is just under SRR-6.2



Up until now, you’ve been thinking that 100x-odds were only available at sawdust joints like Casino Royale and a couple of Midwest boats, while in fact you can turn places like Bellagio, Beau Rivage, Venetian, Taj Mahal, Foxwoods, Caesars, Borgata or any other casino into a high free-Odds joint no matter how pitiful their low-multiple free-Odds appear to be.


In the above example, they’ll allow you to take full-Odds behind your Pass-Line wager despite the fact that there is only a one-dollar difference between your PL and DP bets. To that end, you can make Odds bets for the full value multiple of your line-bet, yet only have one-dollar at actual risk on your base-line wager. In doing so, you can instantly turn a
$25 game into a $1 game and in doing so, they’ll allow you to wager up to 130x-Odds (on the 6 or 8), or 104x-Odds (when your PL-Point is a 5 or 9), or 78x-Odds when your Pass-line Point is a 4 or 10. If you are using a straight Doey-Don’t, then obviously a $25 game would see the Odds-multiple restricted to 75x, 100x, and 125x.



But let’s see how that plays out in a real-world scenario:




Ø On the Come-Out roll I avoid getting overly fancy; opting instead to establish the PL-Point as soon as possible.

Ø I hedge my PL-wager with a $1 bet straight up on the 12-midnight so I don’t have to do an expensive PL-bet replacement in case the 12 rolls. That way, no C-O numbers can harm either my PL or DP wagers.




Ø Once the Point is established, I back up the PL-Point with as much Odds as I am comfortable with.



Let me point out the obvious at this juncture and say that this play is not for the weak of heart, the queasy of stomach or the light of bankroll. It is designed for the player that is more than adequately funded, and who is looking for maximum free-Odds and the lowest base-bets possible. This play accomplishes that goal.


Ø If my PL-Point is a 6 or 8, then I back it up with full Odds. In this case (at a 3x, 4x, 5x table), you are allowed to wager up to five times your Passline-bet in Odds. So with $26 on the PL, you can back it up with a maximum of $130 in Odds.




Ø The fact that I’ve only got a $1 difference between my $25 DP-bet and my $26 PL-bet, means that I’ve turned it into a $1 minimum-bet game, but with allowable Odds of 78x, 104x, and 130x!



Obviously you can do the same thing with nearly offsetting Come/Don’t Come bets as well. Equally, a skilled Darkside shooter can do the opposite thing with Odds on his Don’t Pass line-wager too. In this case, he’d be allowed to bet up to
six times his DP line-wager.




Ø Likewise, a skilled Rightside Precision-Shooter can instantly turn a $50/$51 base-bet into a 260x-Odds game (on the 6 or 8) or a 208x-Odds game when his PL-Point is a 5 or 9; and a 156x-Odds game when the Pass-line Point is a 4 or 10.




Ø One of my favorite casinos has a heck of a sweet-rolling table in their Salon Privée high-roller room, which they always have set at a $50 bet-minimum. I often use a partial offset with $50 on the DP and $100 on the PL to instantly turn it into a 6x, 8x, 10x-Odds game like the Golden Nugget used to offer.


Again, it is critically important that you are adequately funded before you raise your bet-level to this echelon or beyond.



As your confidence and shooting-steadiness improves on the high-dollar tables, you can ratchet things up by simply increasing the bet-size difference between your two base-line PL/DP wagers or completely removing your DP “table-cheapener” altogether.


However, if playing at the higher-limit tables makes you too nervous, uncomfortable or anxious; then perhaps you shouldn’t play at them at all.


It is CRITICALLY IMPORTANT that you remember that this whole force-multiplier concept is based on your
validated advantage.



If your shooting shows a
BoneTracker-verified consistent advantage over the house, and your Odds-betting is properly matched to fully exploit that advantage; then it just makes good economic sense to not only get the dice into your skilled paws as often as reasonably possible; but also to use my ODDS STRETCHER as a Force-Multiplier as frequently as possible.




MP

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on June 12, 2007 7:28 AM.

The previous post in this blog was 4-Rolls-No-7……Worthwhile Bet or Waste of Money?.

The next post in this blog is Part 16 of: How To Get It, and How To Keep It.

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