If you are frustrated with the difficulty of attaining steady profitability even though your roll-tracking indicates that you DO have an advantage over the house; or you are tired of making a profit at some point during most of your sessions, but end up with little or nothing to show for it when you finally cash out…then you’ve come to the right place.
This series is all about how to KEEP more of what is yours…and how to GET more of what is theirs.
In Part Ten, we looked at how…
Ø Profit-discovery is invariably tied to self-discovery.
Ø When you break your own discipline-rules while you are at the casino tables…hope that things DON’T work out.
Ø When you give up discipline, you give up control of your money.
Ø Revisit your worst losses and learn from them. If you ignore mistakes from the past, then you are destined to repeat them.
Ø When you look at your roll-stats, you can pick out the problems and shortcomings, but don’t be too overwrought to see the opportunities that are often hidden in amongst the troubles.
Ø Detaching from fear and greed allows you to make bets that are most likely to hit; and keeps you away from the ones that you only hope and wish you could.
Ø Your attitude towards your money as well as your skill in betting it, determines if you’ll make more or lose more.
Today, our money-making sight-seeing trip takes us a little further down that GET IT and KEEP IT road…
Precision-Shooting Facilitates Your Betting…Precision-Betting REWARDS Your Shooting
Before you begin to cast a new betting-plan that is best suited to your shooting, you may want to ask yourself some key questions.
The answers may uncover hidden profit-opportunities buried within your CURRENT (but still improving) results…and produce more profits from that very same skill-set.
Out of 20 hands, how many are Point-then-7-Out hands?
If you know this number, then you can quickly decide if a Steep Regression is right for you.
It can also determine how STEEP of a regression you can afford (or will need) so that an occasional quick 7-Out doesn't destroy your overall shooting-advantage (or your overall profit-edge).
For example, if you only suffer through three or four quick-outs over twenty in-casino hands; then an early and steep regression has to at least be considered.
Further, it will tell you the best ratio for your Initial (pre-regression) Bet versus the size and distribution of your regressed action.
Ø You might start off with $110-Inside but after one, two or three hits at that original value…a regression down to a simple six-dollar 6 and 8 (instead of the traditional $22-Inside) may be called for…followed by an aggressive progression on those two numbers; or...
Ø You might find an across-the-board pyramid-structure (like we discussed at great length in “You Can’t Shine A Cow-Patty…Or Can You”) on your Initial Bet ($25 on the 4 & 10, $35 on the 5 & 9, $48 on the 6 & 8) regressed after one or two hits to a similar but lower-dollar version of the same pyramid ($5 on the 4 & 10, $10 on the 5 & 9, $18 on the 6 & 8) would work to a T when matched to your current skills.
You have to put the effort INTO figuring out what betting-methods are best for you in order to get the most profit OUT of your current dice-influencing skill-set.
Taking your last 20 hands, what was the average number of rolls-per-hand?
We ask ourselves this question, because we want to know how long we have (as measured by the average number of throws we are able to make before 7’ing-Out) for us to work our betting magic.
Ø For example, if it takes us (on average) eight Point-cycle throws for our betting approach to properly work (and to extract the amount of profit that we need to sustain it); then a seven-roll average will always leave us wanting.
Ø If we know that we make (on average) about seven rolls during our Point-cycle; then we have to take a critical look at how much money we are leaving exposed on the layout after our sixth p-c toss.
Ø Though that DOES NOT mean that we stop betting when we get near that average-roll length; it DOES mean that we want to have ALL of our currently-exposed bets TOTALLY paid for...AND we want to have a reasonable profit ALSO LOCKED UP by the time we reach that point.
Ø If our hand continues past that point (and in 50% of the cases, it will); THEN we can look at building some ADDITIONAL profit on top of what we already have retained.
By taking this approach, we can remain calm yet intently-focused on the ONE thing that keeps the profit rolling...the VERY NEXT throw!
By looking at our average number of rolls-per-hand, we can figure out what will work for us MOST OF THE TIME. That means that we’ll also be able to garner a profit from each one of our hands MOST OF THE TIME too.
Ø This approach lets us use the consistency of our current skill to make money almost every time we pick up the dice.
I’ll quickly add that some well-known gaming-figures don’t subscribe to this concept because they don’t see the relevance of using the “average” of what your current skill-set presently produces.
They take the “every hand is independent and should be judged and bet accordingly” approach. While that tactic has some merit when you are in the middle of a hand and making bet-adjustments on the fly; I prefer to start each hand with a workable betting-plan (that our current average roll-length dictates); that will put more money into your pocket more often. You can still make any mid-hand bet-adjustments and corrections if they are called for…and still play with the firm knowledge and confidence that almost all of your hands will generate at least some profit.
To my mind, if you don’t know how long most of your hands will last, then you are probably either under-betting their potential and not utilizing the full power of the edge that you’ve built up over the house; or you are over-betting your skills and leaving way too much money on the table and not putting enough of it into your rack by the time the 7-Out shows up.
In either case, if you disregard your average hand-length when you are structuring a tailored-to-skill betting-approach; then you are making it much more difficult on yourself to make a profit in the first place…and to keep it once you’ve got it.
Once you know the answer to that question; then you can ask yourself…
Again, using the last 20 in-casino hands that you’ve thrown; how many times did EACH of the box-numbers (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, and 10) appear during each hand?
For this one you not only want to know the average, but you also want to know “the count". That is, how many hands saw one to five box-numbers show up during your Point-cycle...how many produced six to ten box-numbers...how many hands delivered-up between eleven to twenty box-numbers...and how many produced more than that?
The task here is to find out how many box-numbers show up during the Point-cycle of your average hand, and which ones show up most often…along with determining which numbers show up as tightly-recurring groups, clusters or strings.
Obviously this is a little different than figuring out which ones are your most dominant Signature-Numbers, but it is directly related to them simply because, in the process, we get to find out not only WHAT our S-N's are, but also HOW MANY of EACH box-numbers we will produce during an average hand.
The significance of this is clear…
Ø We find out again (but from a slightly different perspective) how many rolls we have in which to weave our dice-setting magic, and where our money is best deployed during that average-hand exposure-time.
Ø In the process, it may help to steer us away from “traditional” (but not necessarily net-productive) bets that needlessly dilute our overall profit.
Ø For example, a traditional Inside-wager (5, 6, 8 and 9) that produces several hits on the 5, 6 and 8, but turns in a less-than-average appearance of the 9, may in fact be unnecessarily dragging down your overall revenue even though most players find it more convenient to call out an Inside-bet than it is to call out the individual wagers for their three highest-persistence numbers.
Ø In this case, convenience is costing you money, and diminishing your overall revenue.
Ø Sometimes, all it takes is just one non-effective wager to turn what should have been a profitable hand…into a money-losing one. Do that often enough…and the entire session turns out to be a net-loser even though it didn’t have to be.
Ø To my mind…if a bet isn’t hitting often enough to PROFITABLY sustain itself…then it shouldn’t be made.
In the process of figuring out how many box-numbers are showing up during our average Point-cycle (and how frequently each one of them is occurring); we sometimes discover that certain groups of numbers show up in regularly recurring clusters, groups or one-right-after-the-other strings.
Ø This may be as simple as discovering that Heavy’s “See a Horn…Bet a Horn” idea holds incredible profit-potential for your current skill-set.
Ø It may mean that the appearance of a certain low-occurrence non-dominant number indicates that it or it’s equally minor-emergence twin (“sister-number”) will show up on the very next roll…and perhaps the roll after that too. If you take a look back at You Had To Be There – Part One and Part Two, you’ll see exactly what I mean.
Each discovery leads us to consider bets that we may not have considered before…or at least to consider some bet-groupings and pairings that fall outside of the normal Inside, Across, Outside, Horn, World and Field bet-calls that most players are used to seeing in a more traditional bet-groupings-and-pairings environment.
The idea of this exercise is for you to discover that your advantage does not always conveniently fall into the traditional wagering-approaches that we are most familiar with.
In the process, you may find for example that the 5, 8, 10 and 11 is where your most frequently recurring profit can be found…or you may discover that the 4, 6, 9 and 12 show up in strangely consecutive patterns when you use a certain dice-set (even though the Distribution Chart doesn’t indicate that they should).
You have to look behind what the charts indicate that you SHOULD be getting…and take a close look at what you actually ARE getting. Your current influencing-skills often hold the key to additional right-now profit that you may be missing out on.
Obviously an advantage-player NEEDS that information in order to properly structure a tailored-to-skill wagering-plan that includes bets that are right for HIM (and his CURRENT talents and bankroll) based on what he generally delivers instead of what he HOPES he could produce.
This approach means that you work with what your talents give you (while you continually strive to improve them).
Answering those critical questions helps you build a profitable foundation upon which you can scale up the value of your bets that produce the most consistent winnings…while concurrently keeping your money off the ones that don’t.
Armed with that, you can ask yourself…
Is the betting-method that is right for someone else...right for ME?
If you've had a chance to read How To Get It, and How To Keep It - Part 8, you'll understand EXACTLY where I'm coming from with this one.
For example, if the stack 'em, don't rack 'em, parlay-each-PL Come-out-winner method works for you; then by all means use it. Or if Bigkahnman’s Army March works for you; then by all means use it too.
No matter what method another player uses, you have to evaluate it based on whether it will work for you and your current skill-level (as well as your current bankroll and risk-tolerance).
You have to seriously look at how often ANY approach will work for you with your CURRENT skill-set, as opposed to how often it will fail.
If for example, BKM’s Army March worked beautifully for you one time back in the summer of ’96; you have to objectively evaluate whether the money that you’ve spent on it ever since then, is worth the cost…or whether modifying it to suit your current shooting-skills would produce a steadier profit a little more often.
If you do the math and it WORKS within your current dice-results, then by all means use it.
However, if you apply that method (or ANY other wagering-approach) to the numbers that YOU have been producing and it doesn't work; then perhaps it may not be right for you at this time. Though it doesn't mean that you should personally outlaw it and never use it again; it does mean that you should continually evaluate how effective your current wagers are…including the ones you make “just for the fun of it”.
Your current in-casino results will TELL you LOUD AND CLEAR exactly where your money should be wagered, and precisely where it should be precluded from. It's just a matter of asking yourself the right questions…and then following through and listening to what your current skills are telling you.
If You Are Afraid Of The Answer
Many players won’t go through that exercise, simply because they know that they won’t like what the answers would indicate.
It would also mean that they’d have to face up to the fact that their present wagers aren’t synched-up with what their average-hand is currently producing.
As a savvy dice-influencer, you have to look at the rolls you are making…and the numbers they are producing…and measure them against the efficacy (effectiveness) of the bets that you have on the layout right now…or the bets that you know in your heart-of-hearts you SHOULD be making but aren’t…as well as the ones that are active on the layout, but SHOULDN’T be there at all.
If you are frustrated with the difficulty of attaining steady profitability even though your roll-tracking indicates that you DO have an advantage over the house; then you have to ask yourself some critical questions…and take the appropriate action when your current roll-results give you their honest answer.
To my mind, that pretty much captures how to KEEP more of what is yours…and how to GET more of what is theirs.
Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor