On the members forum we were talking about the relative merits of Come Bets vs. Place bets. I thought I provide a glimpse of that here...
OK, those who argued for Come bets have a point and are technically correct; when taken as an individual event, the come bet is the second born twin of the PL bet. However, the active number of come bets is not exactly "immaterial", not because of vig but because of exposure. As you described, one 7 wipes out 3 come bets, it takes 3 7's to wipe out 3 PL bets. That's not to say it's better or worse, just different. (unless you WOTCO- Work On the Come-Out)
After that, it starts to get interesting. If you thought the Civil War set brother against brother just watch what happens when you argue the strengths/weakness of come bets.
Yes, the vig is the same, and by taking odds you can certainly get better vig than place bets. Although, depending on the table minimum, it may take a fair amount of odds money to realize the benefits of that lower vig eg; a $5 Come w/$5 odds on a point of 10 pays $15 ($5+$10) and takes tossing 2 10's to pay. A $10 Place 10 pays $18 the first time it rolls ($36 the second). Of course, this changes as you add odds money, but as you do that you add (short-term) volitility too. (assuming it did not win on a 7/11)
Repeated come bets can be great in a long hand with lots of repeaters. Also, the come bet itself after the PL point is established is a one-roll partial hedge against the 7.
On the other hand, the nature of the point cycle makes come betting problematic. The fact that come bet points must be hit twice to pay changes the picture in your average 3.8 to decicsion roll hand. Can the shooter hit the same number 2X in 3 or 4 tosses? Depends on the shooter. Also to be considered is the fact that they are 'contract bets' so by using the old 3-Point Molly you could be stuck on the 4 and 10 more than you'd like to be.
WOTCO notwithstanding, I would rather shoot for a natural after making the point (it's easier) than to keep avoiding the 7 to protect the (flat portion) of the come bets from the last point cycle. This is subject to general debate here and archives shed good light on the membership's experiences with WOTCO.
I know that I have fallen into the trap of just "trusting the numbers" on other issues, but Heavy (and others) have pointed out to me why they can be decieving (eg; volatility v vig). That's why we are on these sites, to learn and to share.
For a simple game, there sure are a lot of ways to look at it. Most modern math-oriented "authorities" will tell you to make a PL bet and 2 come bets all with full odds because thousands of computer sims can't be wrong. The other camps will point out the problems of come betting.
Not that my opinion should count for much but I like John Patrick's simple take on it: "It's easier to hit a (chosen) number like 6 or 8 once than a randomly established number twice" (paraphrased) This is also relevant when you know your signature number(s).
I don't profess to have any definitive answers on the subject. It's just a great meat and potatoes topic for the board to kick around.
-DC
