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Are You Playing for the Exception or the Rule?

Today I watched (again) as a a bettor at my table tossed a fair but not extraordinary hand, maybe 15+ tosses starting with about $44 Inside and coloring up about $100 ahead. But what I couldn't get over was how much he left on the table... about $400 (!)

Right from the start every box number hit was pressed in full. A $12 Six went to $24,  $48, and on up to $240. It was the same with the 5 and 9 (8 was the point) and the 4 and 10 (added later) although not so much, the went from $10 to $25 to $50. I won't say that I see this all the time but I see it too often.

When the inevitable 7 comes, as it always does, and the big pressing bettor curses, it's all I can do to hold my tongue. That's because this guy (me) wants to turn to the dope and say,
"Well what the fuck did you THINK was going to happen?! "

Naturally, there is a point to all that and it is this:

No matter how good your shooting is, are you betting for the hands you most have or the hands you want to have?  In other words, re you betting for the exception or the rule? Is you betting a triumph of hope or experience? Or worse, is your hard won experience being pushed aside by the twin demons of Fear and/or Greed?

For example, betting with
Fear can be seen when we don't take advantage of Odds regardless of the point. Betting with Greed is when we can't press any Box number often enough, starting early in the hand. Either way we end up failing to make the profits our hard-earned skill (and money) make available.

So, when you get the dice, what do you think is going to happen and are you going to bet accordingly, are you going to bet for what your experience informs you will most likely happen, are afraid will happen (PSO?) or what you hope will happen?


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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on April 16, 2008 9:35 AM.

The previous post in this blog was From the 009 Time Capsule (Bits from the past).

The next post in this blog is D'ya Wanna Win, or D'ya Wanna Gamble Part 1, Revised.

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