The more random bets that you make at the cheap tables, the less likely it is that your own dice-influencing efforts will ever be good enough to overcome your R-R losses...and therefore they often prevent skilled dice-influencers from escaping the cheap tables in the first place.
The more random-rollers that you bet on, the better your own shooting has to be. Playing at the cheap tables often locks you into a vicious win-SOME/lose-MORE cycle.
The fewer random-rollers that you bet on; the more modest your own dice-influencing efforts need to be in order to overcome the entirety of the house-edge against all of your bets.
Let’s look at four different tables all in the same craps-pit:
Table #1 is a $5 minimum-bet table with 14 players.
Table #2 is a $10 minimum-bet table with 11 players.
Table #3 is a $15 minimum-bet table with 9 players.
Table #4 is a $25 minimum-bet table with 5 players.
It seems that the lower the table-minimum, the more, many dice-influencers feel they can afford to gamble on random-rollers.
For example, when the dice are not in their own hands, many dice-influencers will…
On Table #1…bet an average of $22-Inside when a random-roller has the cubes, plus they add a few $5 World-bets on the come-out as well as some Hardway action when the mood strikes them.
On Table #2…they’ll often start their random-roller betting with an initial $44-Inside wager that is regression-compressed to $12 each on the 6 and 8 after one hit. Their randomly-bet come-out action may be little more conservative, or since those props can be bet for less than table-minimum, they’ll use the props and hops to fuel their ‘action’ needs.
On Table #3…many dice-influencers will Place a simple $18 wager on the 6 and 8 when a random-roller is shooting.
On Table #4…most dice-influencers will wager a simple $25 bet on either the Pass or Don’t Pass line. If they back it with odds, it will be of the 1x or 2x variety when a random-roller has the cubes.
Let’s consider the relative cost of playing at each table under those betting-scenarios:
At Table #1 with a randomly-bet average of $22-Inside when a random-roller has the cubes with a few $5 World-bets on the come-out thrown in for good measure; the relative cost will be about $1.79 for each random-roller that the dice-influencer bets on.
With 14 players to contend with, that equates to a cost of $25.06 per lap around the table.
Give or take a few dollars, does that sound familiar?
At Table #2 an initial $44-Inside is wagered, which is then regression-compressed to $12 each on the 6 and 8 after one hit.
Their randomly-bet come-out may be more conservative, so instead of using props and hops to fuel their ‘action’; they opt for an occasional $1 each Hardway when the mood strikes them.
At a $10 table with this kind of action, the relative cost will be about $1.07 for each random-roller that the dice-influencer bets on.
With 11 players to contend with, that equates to a cost of $11.77 per lap around the table.
At Table #3 the same player might Place-bet a simple $18 wager on the 6 and 8.
At a $15 table with this kind of action, the relative cost will be about $0.54 for each random-roller that the dice-influencer bets on.
With 9 players to contend with, that equates to a cost of $4.86 per lap around the table.
At Table #4, we'll have this player stick with a simple $25 bet on either the Pass or Don’t Pass line. If he backs it with Odds, it will usually be of the 1x or 2x variety.
At a $25 table with this kind of action, the relative cost will be about $0.35 for each random-roller that this dice-influencer bets on.
With 5 players to contend with, that equates to a cost of $1.75 per lap around the table.
Let’s do a quick summary:
Table #1…$5 minimum…14 players…$5 World come-outs and $22-Inside point-cycle action…one lap ~$25.06.
Table #2…$10 minimum…11 players…$44-Inside for one hit and then compression regressed to $12 each on the 6 and 8, plus an occasional $4 all-the-Hardways bet… one lap ~$11.77.
Table #3…$15 minimum…9 players….simple $18-each Place-bets on the 6 and 8… one lap ~$4.86
Table #4…$25 minimum…5 players…simple $25 bet on either the Pass or Don’t Pass… one lap ~$1.75.
Now obviously I am over-simplifying the scenarios here for illustrative purposes, but the cost-per-lap numbers are correct, and I don’t expect you to live like ascetic monks and stavrophore nuns. Instead I want you to realize that playing at cheap tables and betting on most random-rollers can actually cost you more than if you peddled your dice-influencing skills at the more expensive tables.
So, not only would you be getting the dice more often at let’s say a $15 table than you would at a $5 one (because there are less active players to deal with); but if you made some slight alterations to the way that you bet on random-rollers, each lap would be costing you less money despite the higher cost of playing on the more expensive layout.
As I mentioned the other day…
The more random-bets and/or the more random-decisions your money is subject to over a given period of time; then the more bankroll-erosion a negative-EV randomly-betting player will experience. If all of the randomly wagered bets that are made are of negative-expectation; then the more a given bankroll will shrink.
The more advantaged-bets and/or the more advantaged-decisions that your money is subject to over a given period of time; then the more bankroll-growth a positive-EV advantage-betting dice-influencer will experience. If all of his bets are positive-expectation; then the more his bankroll will grow.
Now I realize that most aspiring dice-influencers seek out the cheapest possible table…and they loathe the thought of having to play at a more expensive one; but the plain truth is that with a sufficient bankroll; the more often you can get your hands on the dice…and the more often you can subject your advantaged bets to roll-decisions where you have a validated edge over the house…and the less money you piss away on random-betting; the more money you will make and the more profit you will retain.
In other words, the less of a hole that your advantaged dice-influenced bets have to dig themselves out of from all of your random-betting; the more they can get on with their job of actually growing your bankroll.
At the end of the day, you really have to ask yourself whether cheap tables are actually costing you MORE money while giving your dice-influencing skills LESS opportunity to perform.
An honest appraisal will most likely determine that the answer is a resounding YES!
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
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