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Are Come-bets Worth Less to a High-SRR Shooter?

Although we don’t actually ‘throw away’ what we know about random-expectation when it comes to analyzing our own dice-influencing numbers; we use them instead to give our de-randomized results perspective, clarity, and money-making intelligibility.

Random-expectation gives us a baseline with which to work with. If our dice-tossing results are indeed influenced; then our advantage will exceed and overcome the house-edge for certain bets.

The easiest bet at which to get an edge in craps is Odds. Since the Odds themselves don’t have a built-in house-edge (whether wagered behind a Passline or Come bet, or with a Don’t Pass or Don’t Come bet); it takes very little effort to turn the Odds bet into a positive-expectation proposition.

I’ve long reminded players that if they have a validated edge over a given box-number; then their advantage is always greater on the Odds portion of a Passline or Come-bet than a Place-bet on the same number.

So let’s look at some facts to help us decide the value and usefulness of Come-bets:

-Come bets that are backed with full Odds are considered low-vig "smart" bets, simply because they carry the same low house-edge that Passline bets that are backed with full Odds also carry.

-One of the reasons Come-bets are so low-vig (just like Passline wagers") is because when they are first made; they win with a 7 or 11 about 22.2%. If you had no other Rightside bets on the table at the time; that would be a good thing.

However, in a random game, 75% of those Come-bet ‘wins’ occur with a hand-ending 7 (but your mileage will obviously vary depending on your preponderant ability to reduce the number of point-cycle 7’s); so a Point-cycle Come-bet 'winner' means that any other Rightside bets lose on that same 'win'.

Clearly then, it’s easy to understand why Come-bets aren’t as well-favored by veteran dice-influencers as much as they are by recent immigrants from the war-torn streets of the A-P Blackjack battlefield who generally only consider the vig or house-edge of a bet as opposed to the actual utility of a given wager.

-Add to that the fact that a point-cycle 2, 3, or 12 also results in a Come-bet loss about 11% of the randomly-thrown time. Again though, your Come-bet loss-erosion will obviously vary quite a bit from that figure depending on your ability to reduce the appearance-frequency of point-cycle trash-numbers.

So we end up asking ourselves:

”Since Come-bets are made during the point-cycle, where we are intentionally trying to avoid a Come-bet-winning, but balance-of-bets-losing 7; and the best chance a Come-bet has of winning on it's own, is during those mid-hand "come-outs"; is our money being severely underutilized while we are avoiding that hand-ending 7?”



Well this is where we get to the point that separates dice-influencers from random-rollers and all the other non-opposable-thumb primates in the craps world.

What we ‘give up’ and appear to sacrifice by rolling fewer mid-hand 7’s, is more than made up for when our Come-bets move to a box-number.

It is important to remember that in a randomly-thrown world, two-thirds (66.6%) of all Come-bets will travel to a box-number. As dice-influencers, a >SRR-6 rate means that we’ll not only be throwing less hand-ending 7’s; but that we’ll also be producing more box-numbers as well.

It is reasonable to assume that we’ll see at least 200% more box-number Come-bet ‘travelers’ than we’ll see of those instant Come-bet winners or losers…and for the skilled dice-influencer, there is a ton of gold to be had if you back the traveled Come-bets that go to a box-number where you have a known advantage, with the fullest Odds possible.

-When a Come-bet travels to a box-number; the majority of any subsequent value is realized only if backed with Odds, so using as much Odds as you can possibly afford is always in your best interests. If there is one core piece of critical knowledge you can walk away from this discussion with; it’s that dice-influenced Odds are more powerful than any other bet you can make on the table…bar none.If you still have any doubts, take a look at this chart. It shows the number of hands you can lose while still breaking even depending on the amount of Odds that you back your Passline bet with. The same obviously holds true for Come-bets as well.



 



Win
$-Value
versus
Loss
$-Value

(when a PL-Point is repeated versus when a 7-Out is thrown)

Win/Loss
Ratio


(the number of losses you can suffer for each win...and still break even)

NO
Odds

wins $10
loses $10

1 : 1.00

1x
Odds

wins $25
loses $20

1 : 1.25

2x
Odds

wins$40
loses$30

1 : 1.33

3x/4x/5x
Odds

wins $70
loses $50

1 : 1.40

5x
Odds

wins $85
loses $60

1 : 1.42

10x
Odds

wins $160
loses $110

1 : 1.45

20x
Odds

wins $310
loses $210

1 : 1.48

100x
Odds

wins $1510
loses $1010

1 : 1.50

 

 

 

In the simplest terms; this chart shows how the added volatility that you have to endure when using high-ratio Odds, also means that you can afford to lose way more hands than you win...and still emerge with an overall profit.



If there's a more compelling reason to use maximum-Odds (other than the obvious force-multiplier profit-expanding effect of maxing-out your Odds that we've previously discussed); then I don't know what it is.

On their own Come-bets are fine, and if that’s the advantage-play route you choose to go because of the ultra-low house-edge that the combined Come-bet and its subsequent Odds carry; then great…however there are more profitably-effective routes that a skilled shooter can take. For example:

-Using Irishsetter's simple but effective Place-to-Come strategy offers the best of both worlds.

-Once you establish your PL-Point, you can Place-bet your top two or three Signature-Numbers where you have a known pre-verified edge.

-When a Come-bet travels to one of them, you then use your Place-bet payout to fuel the fullest possible Odds on that Come-bet.

In essence, your initial properly-sized Place-bet will completely finance not only the value of the traveled Come-bet as well as the max-Odds that you back it with; but when all is said and done before the next roll is even made, you should also see a bit of net-profit tumble your way too.

Let’s take a look at what effect the use of Odds will have when that happens to a modestly-skilled SRR-6.5 shooter…knowing that the higher your SRR-rate goes; the more your Odds-bet acts as a force-multiplier for your current skills…and the more your profit will be magnified and amplified with each added dollar that you back your Come-bet with:

with:

SRR 6.5
player wagering a basic

$10
Passline Wager
and backing it with the following
Odds

PL-Point

4 or 10

Win/Loss
Ratio


37%/63%

PL-Point

5 or 9

Win/Loss
Ratio


43%/57%

PL-Point

6 or 8

Win/Loss
Ratio


49%/51%

NO
Odds

(-26.0%)
edge

(-14.0%)
edge

(-2.0%)
edge

1x
Odds

(-7.5%)
edge

(-3.3%)
edge

2.9%
edge

2x
Odds

(-1.33%)
edge

0.33%
edge

4.5%
edge

3x/4x/5x
Odds

1.75%
edge

3.2%
edge

6.17%
edge

5x
Odds

3.33%
edge

9.92%
edge

6.17%
edge

10x
Odds

7.63%
edge

11.55%
edge

6.91%
edge

 

So do Come-bets that are not part of a larger Place-to-Come strategy argue against the conventional wisdom of using a "3-Point (a Passline bet backed with Odds, along with two Come-bets similarly backed with Odds) Molly"…and instead argue quite convincingly (and much more profitably) on behalf of using a Signature-Number driven Place-to-Come strategy?

Well, it really all depends on your point-of-view.

I like the idea of having the most money on the box-numbers where I have the biggest edge as soon as possible. I also like the idea of keeping the house-edge that my skilled shooting has to overcome as low as possible.

To accomplish that, I like using Irishsetter’s Place-to-Come strategy that puts my money on the numbers that I’ve pre-qualified as being my most dominant for the particular dice-set that I am using.


It takes the best of both worlds (low-vig versus one-hit payouts), and generally makes our historically-valid wagers productive right from the get-go.

To ensure that we are getting the most out of our current D-I talents, we have to have a pretty good grasp on what our most dominant box-numbers are in the first place; otherwise we are pretty much stuck with avoiding start-of-the-Point-cycle Place-bets almost entirely or betting them on a take-yer-chances pot-luck sort of way.

I'm not ready to abandon the Place-bets that have gotten me to where I am today, and I'm pretty sure that most of you aren't either...otherwise we'd all end up doing a 3-Point Molly (which is the way the A-P BJ guys say all of us should be betting in the first place).

If we ignore where our strongest-edge bets are most likely to be found (based on our previous roll-tracked results), and instead wait to see what the table is 'giving us' by way of traveled Come-bets; then we are not only more likely to miss out on our S-N's initial appearance, but we also have to produce numerically-longer (higher-duration) hands to make pretty much the same amount of money than if we hadn't ignored our most dominant box-numbers and patiently waited for them to manifest themselves, in due course, through traveled Come-bets.

I don’t want to give up the enormous profits that those initial Place-bet wins produce; and I suspect that most other dice-influencers won’t want to either. On the other hand, we all have to recognize the fundamental power that true-Odds offer to the skillful shooter, and we have to utilize them in an effectively useful way. For my money, Irishsetter's Place-to-Come strategy fits that bill quite nicely.


A Word About Hedging Your Come-bet

Finally, if for example, you are using a $1 Any Craps wager to hedge a $10 Come-bet; then your subsequent edge over the house has to be a little over twice as high than if you passed up taking that kind of expensive hedging insurance.

In other words, your shooting advantage has to be around 100% better in order to accomplish the same thing if you hadn’t made a Craps-check wager to ‘protect’ your Come-bet in the first place...and so an Any Craps hedge is incredibly difficult to justify.


Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.


The Mad Professor

Copyright © 2007-2008

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on August 9, 2008 7:49 PM.

The previous post in this blog was Determining a Casino’s Win-Tolerance Comfort Level.

The next post in this blog is Keeping it Simple - Part Six.

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