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Can You Fool Your Bankroll into THINKING and ACTING Like it is Bigger?

Without a heart you die.

Your bankroll is the heart of your advantage-play dice-influencing engine.

Without a properly financed bankroll, your chances of making money off of your de-randomizing talents are pretty much dead.

The more money that you can circulate through the heart of your advantaged positive-EV bets, the higher your staying-power and the greater your earning-power.


Higher Bankroll Circulation Means Better Staying-Power and Healthier Earning-Power at the Tables
WHAT you bet and HOW you bet, will determine your bankroll’s stamina.

SIZE of bankroll is only one consideration of how long you can actually stay at the table.

Once you understand the laws of house edge and probability, you can get a handle of ways you can fool your bankroll into thinking and acting like it is bigger.

So let’s look at “staying power”.

The average turnover of a bankroll during a session is called the recirculation factor.

It’s calculated from house edge, the number of betting-units your bankroll represents, and the "win/drop hold percentage" or "PC" for craps.

Before we can look at how a dice-influencer can fool his bankroll into thinking and acting like it is bigger; we first have to look at how it works in a negative-expectation randomly-rolled game.

To find how many bets you can expect to make in a session, we simply multiply the number of betting-units you have in your bankroll by the recirculation factor for the edge at which you are playing.

 

Negative-Expectation
House-Edge

"Recirculation" Factor

0.50%
(low-edge wagers like PL w/multi-odds)

24

0.75%

16

1.00%

13

1.50%
(such as Place-bets on the 6 & 8)

10

2.00%

8

3.00%

5

4.00%
(such as Place-bets on the 5 & 9)

3

5.00%

3

10.00%
(such as Prop and Hardway bets)

2

 

Here’s a couple of examples of how the recirculation factor works:

~Buy-in for $500.

~Bet $10 on the Pass Line with 1x-Odds.

~Place the 5 or 9 for $5 each.

~Your total 7-exposure is $30.

~Your stake is $500 divided by $30.

~That equals about 17 betting-units.

~The house has an effective edge of 1.9%, and we’ll round it off to 2%.

~Multiply the 17 units by the factor of 8 shown for the 2% house edge shown above.

~We find that 17 x 8 equals 136 bets.

~That means with a $500 buy-in, we can expect to make about 136 of those combined neg-ex bets during a session. On a 14-player table, that equates to about ten laps before we will usually run out of money.


What if you Trim the House-Edge for the Same Amount of Money at Risk?
~Bet $10 on Pass Line again, but back it up with 2x-Odds without any other bets.

~Now the house advantage is only 0.6%.

~That gives you a recirculation factor of 20, halfway between 0.5 and 0.75 percent.

~You now have an expected 17 units x 20.

~That equates to 340 bets during the same session, from the same size of bankroll.

~That means with a $500 buy-in, we can expect to make about 340 of those combined neg-ex bets during a session. On a 14-player table, that equates to about twenty-four laps before we will usually run out of money.


What Happens When 3x/4x/5x-Odds…or 10x…or 20x-Odds are Available?
While betting more money, you get a lower house-edge on a 3x or higher Odds table.

For example:

~Bet $10 on the Pass Line, then back it up with $30 in Odds (for a total 7-exposure of $40).

~Your buy-in of $500 divided by $40, gives you 12.5 betting units.

~The house-edge against you is now less than 0.5%.

~You have 12.5 units x a recirculation-rate of 25, or about 312 bets during the session.


So How is the Re-Circulation Rate Applicable to Your Bankroll?

Using the recirculation factor when making bet-decisions; helps you determine the optimum size and placement of your wagers.

Now in a randomly-thrown game that only means being able to stay at the tables substantially longer while using the same bankroll.

However, if you are an advantage-player, then it changes not only your STAYING-power, but also your EARNING-power as well.

To my mind, it is important to be able to stay in the game long enough to get into a shooting groove. For many players, this may take one, two, or even three trips around the table.

If you don’t have the staying power or “bankroll stamina”, you may never be able to fully capitalize on your own shooting skills.

Fooling your bankroll into thinking and acting like it is bigger lets you stay in a randomly-thrown game longer; but more importantly, it lets you better capitalize on your own dice-influencing talents when the dice come around to you.

To put it in Texas vernacular:

"Its not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"

I want to thank Alan Krigman for first introducing this concept to me about a decade ago, and for allowing me to share it with you today. All the credit goes to him.

In Part Two, I’ll show you how an advantage-play dice-influencer can use the recirculation factor of his positive-EV bets into fooling his current bankroll into thinking, acting, and PROFITING like it is much, much bigger.


Until then,

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor

Copyright © 2007-2008

 

 

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on August 16, 2008 3:36 PM.

The previous post in this blog was The Benefits of Playing at Cheap Tables.

The next post in this blog is Can You Fool Your Bankroll into THINKING and ACTING Like it is Bigger Part - 2.

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