In Part One, we looked at the recirculation-rate that various randomly-bet wagers carry, and how it affects the likely number of hands your session buy-in will survive before it erodes into nothing.
Today, we are going to look at the recirculation-rate that your various dice-influenced positive-edged bets carry, and how it affects the likely number of hands your session buy-in will go through before it DOUBLES in value.
How Many Pos-Ex Hands I Will Throw Before Likely Doubling My Buy-In?
If you’ve read Regression Avoids Depression Part; you already know approximately how many ISR-based hands it will take to double a given TOTAL gaming bankroll depending on your SRR-rate and the triggering of the Steep Regression at the optimal point in your hand. Today we are looking at how long, on average, it will take to double your typical Session Buy-In based on the blended positive-edge your dice-influenced wagers have over the house.
Now obviously I am only talking about your own advantaged shooting. If you piss away twice as much money on random-rollers as you make on your own shooting; well you’re very rarely going to double anything except your frustration and aggravation.
As we did in Part One of this article, let’s look at a typical $500 session buy-in.
To find how many bets you can expect to make in a session, we multiply the number of combined betting-units you have in your session buy-in by the positive-expectation recirculation factor for the edge at which you have over the house
Here’s a couple of examples of how the re-circulation factor works for an advantage-play dice-influencer:
~Buy-in for $500.
~Bet $10 on the Pass Line with 1x-Odds.
~Place the 5 or 9 for $5 each.
~Your total 7-exposure is $30.
~Your stake is $500 divided by $30.
~That equals about 17 betting-units.
~Let’s say that your pos-ex overall blended-advantage for these wagers gives you an effective edge of 1.9%; so we’ll round that off to 2%.
~Multiply the 17 units by the factor of 8 for the 2% player-edge shown above.
~We find that 17 x 8 equals 136 hands.
~That means with a $500 buy-in, you can expect to throw about 136 of those combined pos-ex hands before doubling your $500 buy-in.
What if You Decrease the Player-Edge for the Same Amount of Money at Risk?
Let’s say that your shooting-edge is quite a bit lower than 2%.
~Bet $10 on Pass Line again, but back it up with 2x-Odds without any other bets.
~Now the player-advantage is only 0.6%.
~That gives you a re-circulation factor of 20, halfway between 0.5 and 0.75 percent.
~You now have 17 expected betting-units x a re-circulation factor of 20.
~That equates to 340 hands before you will likely double the size of the same session buy-in.
~In other words, with a $500 buy-in, you can expect it to take about 340 of those combined pos-ex hands before doubling your base buy-in.
If You Have a Greater Than 2% Blended-Advantage
~Buy-in for $500.
~Bet $10 on the Pass Line with 3x-Odds.
~Place-bet the 6 and 8 for $24 each if they are your top two, best-performing box-numbers.
~Your total 7-exposure is $88.
~Your stake is $500 divided by $88.
~That equals about 5.7 betting-units.
~Let’s say that your pos-ex overall blended-advantage for these wagers gives you an effective edge of 5.0%.
~Multiply the 5.7 betting-units by the re-circulation factor of 3 for the 5% player-edge shown above.
~We find that 5.7 x 3 equals 17 hands.
~That means with a $500 buy-in, you can expect to make about 17 of those combined pos-ex hands before doubling your $500 buy-in.
So How is the Re-Circulation Rate Applicable to Your Own Advantage-Play Bankroll?
Using the re-circulation factor when making bet-decisions, helps you determine the optimum size and placement of your wagers.
In a randomly-thrown game, using the re-circulation factor and betting as little money on the lowest house-edge bets means that you will be able to stay at the tables substantially longer while using the same bankroll.
However, as an advantage-player who is validly able to influence the dice; then it changes not only your STAYING-power, but also your EARNING-power as well.
In that case, the more you bet (within the confines of your session buy-in) on your highest-advantage wagers; the quicker you will double that buy-in.
In other words, it will take less hands to double your bankroll if you stick with your absolute best, highest-edge bets than it would if you spread your money more thinly across additional lower-edge numbers…thereby diluting your overall blended-advantage and stretching out the number of hands it will take before you double-up your session buy-in.
To my mind, the quicker you can double your session buy-in (as measured by the number of advantaged hands you will have to throw in order to do so); the better.
Fooling your bankroll into thinking and acting like it is bigger, not only lets you stay in a randomly-thrown game longer; but more importantly, it lets you better capitalize on your own dice-influencing talents when the dice come around to you.
Or as they are fond of saying in
"Its not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
Again, I want to thank Alan Krigman for first introducing this concept to me about a decade ago. It has made a world of difference in the terms of not only doubling then re-doubling my session buy-in’s a countless numbers of times, but also doubling and redoubling my TOTAL gaming bankroll many, many times over. ‘Grateful’ doesn’t even come close to describing my appreciation.
Believe it or not, there’s actually going to be a Part Three to this series. My co-author…the content…and the commentary, will be a refreshing surprise for those who are interested in taking some of the casino’s bankroll and using it to pump up their own bankroll.
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
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