Why Your In-Casino Toss-Results Are More Actionably Reliable Than Your At-Home Results
How much relative value and significance we should place on our in-casino toss-results versus those tracked on at-home practice-rigs?
Depending on how closely our at-home rig mimics our usual in-casino table(s), and how well we are able to actually transfer and execute our practice-rig developed toss in the real world casinos; dictates how much significance we should place on our at-home practice rolls.
I personally place a high premium-value on in-casino roll-stats and a much lower, somewhat discounted value on at-home roll-tracking...to a degree that might surprise many.
That is, if I had to weigh the value of your 600 in-casino rolls versus let's say 1200 rolls that you tracked at home (instead of running your in-casino stats separately from your at-home stats as I highly recommend everyone does); then I would multiply your in-casino results by a factor of three (=1800) and add them to the single-value 1200 at-home rolls.
Stated another way, I would discount at-home results by about two-thirds, while giving full-value to my in-casino stats.
Again, I place high credence on in-casino rolls and high discount on at-home rolls...and track them separately at all times.
It is critically important that we acknowledge that our at-home practice stats only attempt to mimic real-world conditions to varying degrees; whereas our actual in-casino roll-stats take place under real-world, real table, live-fire, real money on the line conditions and therefore they represent the truest, most accurate, most reliable, most BANKABLE indicator of our current D-I skill-set.
Though the math-guys will tell you that you'll need to track just over 46,000 rolls to even begin to come close to statistical significance; I think dice-influencing skills can be validated over as little as 700 rolls or so.
Now obviously it should go without saying that the greater the number of rolls over which you can extend and validate your positive influence; the higher the degree of confidence that we can place on that skill-set to verify with a high degree of certainty that it is real (and not just a wild swing of random variance).
In addition to that, the higher the degree of influence (the greater your skill is above random-expectancy); the fewer rolls you'll need to prove out its statistical significance. For an SRR of 8.3 for example, a book of 4000 in-casino rolls would come very close to showing a pretty compelling degree of validated confidence.
My goal is to get you to input roll-stats that most closely mimic what you are likely capable of throwing in the real-world…and nothing comes closer to the real thing than the real thing itself…and that is why I give more weight to in-casino tracked results.
A Higher On-Axis Percentage Does Not Always Result in a Higher SRR
The reason a higher on-axis percentage doesn't necessarily lead to a higher SRR is usually due to a situation where the relationship between the number of on-axis primary-hits, single-pitches and double-pitches changes to a point where you have an increasing number of on-axis 7-outs compared to a lesser increase (or a decline) in the number of other on-axis outcomes.
In other words, if the increase in on-axis 7's outpace the increase in other on-axis outcomes; then your SRR-rate will actually decline even though your on-axis percentage is going through the roof.
For example, lets say that you increase your total on-axis percentage by four basis points (from 44.4% to 48.4%); however in doing so the number of on-axis double-pitched 7's increase disproportionately to the increase in primary-hit and single-pitch outcomes. That wouldn't be such a great thing even though at first blush you have indeed improved your on-axis percentage by a pretty good margin.
To make matters worse, you may find that your off-axis 7's have also increased for a reason that can be traced to a negative correlation of the dice when they go off-axis too.
That is why I am such a strong proponent of not only looking at what your starting-set is "supposed" to produce (based on the somewhat outmoded idea of on-axis set-theory); but rather at the totality of your ability to influence the dice in a correlated way. Those highly correlated outcomes often present extraordinary advantage-play betting opportunities even though you have seemingly modest on-axis results.
When you consider the hundreds upon hundreds of dice-setting players who have been able to de-randomize the dice in order to get an edge over the casino, the numbers are quite large. Unfortunately though, the number of players within those same ranks who have been able to successfully convert their dice-influencing stills into tangible profit on a steady basis…is still very disappointingly LOW.
I want to change all that, and showing you how to properly use DiceTool is one of the ways to do it.
Clandestine Clocking of Skilled Shooters
This is a high-tech, but simple approach to unobtrusively clocking and then profitably capitalizing on the skills of other dice-influencers who just happen to be at the same table as you. In fact it is so inconspicuous that neither friends, strangers, nor pit-dwellers will likely notice anything you are doing…except perhaps for your uncanny ability to make money off of certain shooters rolls.
A Real-World Example
Let’s say that you walk into a casino where there appears to be a couple of dice-influencers at the table. They could already be friends or acquaintances, or they could be total strangers.
By the way their dice fly through the air and land in a somewhat correlated fashion, they seem to know what they are doing. Though sometimes their outcomes occasionally match the active wagers that they have on the table; there is also an abundance of outcomes that appear to be under-bet or completely unutilized by those same shooters, but it’s hard to tell whether or not those are actual advantage-play opportunities or just some variant clutter on the de-randomized radar.
Now obviously, in the short term, anything can happen at a craps table…and it usually does; but the overriding question that many players want to know; is if there is a way to track a skilled shooters current right-here/right-now throws, and then use that information to extract a profit during his subsequent hands.
I’ve spent the last two years researching this subject and refining the methodology at the real-world tables; and I can tell you without reservation, that you can indeed do that in ways that produce a shockingly high ratio of dollars-won to dollars-bet.
In fact, I can also tell you that you can often wring more profit-per-dollar-wagered from bets that the shooter is completely missing out on or severely under-betting on; than the net amount of money he makes from all of his current wagers combined.
How To Do It
It all starts with tracking the Foundation Frequencies (F-F’s) of a shooters outcomes.
As you know, the five Foundation Frequencies (primary-face hits, single-pitched on-axis hits, double-pitched on-axis hits, one-die off-axis hits, and both-dice off-axis hits) constitute the basis of the DiceTool sub-program portion of Maddog’s excellent BoneTracker software.
If you’ve read pages 157 through 160 of my Crapshooting Bible or you’ve read my above-related articles on the subject; then you also know that I like using casino chips for the Hands-of-the-Clock F-F tracking-method so that I can keep precise detail of each multiple-toss hand...and even multiple hands by the same shooter.
~When I collect the Foundation Frequency data from a selected shooter, I enter those five simple numbers into my Blackberry-based DiceTool during a washroom break or when I step away from the table for a minute or two when the random-rollers have the dice.
~If I’ve been tracking multiple shooters; I simply start a fresh F-F data-base for each player (labeling it with their name, handle, or short physical description), and then I continue to update that particular shooters info as I gather more and more of his Foundation Frequency roll-stats during subsequent hands and sessions.
~Now I’ll be the first to tell you that one or two hands does not make a validated book of rolls, but I can also tell you that if you start tracking three or five or ten hands by the same shooter (even if it is spread over several sessions or many days); you will likely start to pick up all sorts of money-making clues as to where that shooters best money-making opportunities are found.
As I mentioned just a moment ago, some of the best betting-prospects are often NOT on all of the same numbers that he is currently betting on, although admittedly there is often a happily fortuitous overlap between his current shooting talent and his current betting talent.
When you track his Foundation Frequency roll-stats over several hands or especially over several sessions; you’ll often see opportunities where no one else (including the shooter himself) sees them.
Why is that?
Well DiceTool can work in two ways.
First it was designed for you to input your own Foundation Frequencies to help you determine the best dice-set and the best bets for your current skill.
However, you can also use DiceTool to input those same F-F’s and have it look at the dice-set currently being used by the shooter to determine which bets offers the strongest edge over the house.
In many cases, it offers a clear-eyed glimpse at what otherwise may be an unlikely opportunity that has been overlooked or at least under-bet by the shooter himself…and friends,THAT is where MY MONEY will be wagered.
My use of DiceTool for clandestine clocking of skilled dice-influencers simply offers an ideal way to take full advantage of a shooter’s right-here/right-now talents.
Why Not Just Use a Pencil and Paper?
There’s certainly nothing wrong with tracking your rolls or the rolls of other skilled dice-influencers with paper and pencil; however you do have to be somewhat skillfully quick and accurate in your math calculations.
On the other hand, using DiceTool does all of those calculations for you, and you can keep a constantly running updated tally on as many players as you want…over as many sessions, days, weeks, or months as you choose. All of the information is a click of the Blackberry away.
Where the Rubber Meets the Road
So how does using this clandestine clocking of skilled shooters manage to often wring more profit-per-$-wagered for YOU from bets that the shooter is severely under-betting or completely missing out on; than the money HE makes from all of his current wagers combined?
Well, the answer is so simple and straightforward as to be almost puritanical in its uncomplicated approach.
We use the Foundation Frequencies that we enter into DiceTool to determine the one or two numbers where the shooter has the greatest advantage; then we make unelaborate decently-sized Place-bets on those numbers only…and we let his dice-influencing skill do the rest.
That’s it…that’s all.
When a shooter has an advantage over the house, there is no need to get complicated. His edge will redeem itself if you put your money where he currently has the strongest advantage.
The fewer the numbers that you spread your money on, and the bigger his advantage over the one or two numbers where he has that strongest edge; the MORE money you will make off of those concentrated wagers…and the QUICKER you will make it.
Using DiceTool to clandestinely clock other skilled dice-influencers is an advantage play that I’ve been using for a little over two years now. If I suddenly lost the ability to effectively throw the dice myself, I know that I’d still have the means to profit from the throws of other D-I’s…even if their bets didn’t always reflect what I was betting on.
In Part Four of this series, we're going to look at some of the most effective and dollar-efficient ways to turn your DiceTool results into more profit with less volatility and even lesser risk.
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
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