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DiceTool…Unlock Your Current Potential - Part 5


Does It Matter What Dice-Set You Gather Roll-Stats With?
No, the basic toss-characteristic Foundation Frequencies that you throw the dice with are the same no matter which dice-set or set-permutation you use.

The dice don't 'know' which set you arranged them in; rather, they are only influenced by the way that you toss them. Therefore the end-result facial-relationships will remain the same.

For example, if 12% of your outcomes are primary-faced hits using the V-3 set; then 12% of your outcomes will be primary-faced hits while using the V-2 set.

DiceTool looks at the global significance of each of the Foundation Frequencies (primary faces on-axis, single-pitches on-axis, double-pitches on-axis, single die off-axis, both dice off-axis) that a shooter tosses; and then considers the possible correlation between each of the Foundation Frequencies to determine which dice-set and which bets would be best for that particular shooter on an edge/bet and edge/roll basis.

As always, the greater the number of roll-stats collected by the shooter (especially those collected from his in-casino outcomes); the more predictable and actionably reliable the findings will be when he uses those recommendations to model his dice-setting and betting strategy.


Why the Foundation Frequencies Work

I consider the DiceTool to be an absolutely essential part of the advantage-player's game because it helps to focus your bets onto the wagers where you have the strongest edge, and encourages you to discard and avoid the marginal or near-random ones.

Players who have tracked their rolls with Maddog's outstanding BoneTracker software can easily plug in the five Foundation Frequencies (that are totaled at the top right-hand corner of the B-T page) right into the yellow area at the top of DiceTool.

It does not matter which dice-set you used to initially track your rolls, all of the F-F transposition work has already been done for you.

Maddog gave an excellent description of how this is done:

With DiceTool, the Foundation Frequencies are used to average rolls across dice faces (using the various starting sets that are provided as the Map).

For example, say you set the HW and roll a 4-4, hard eight. Well that is a primary face hit (for a standard permutation of the HW set). DT sees it as a primary face hit and assigns it as such. DT then takes all “primary face” results and averages them across the 4 possible primary faces. So in this example 1 primary face hit is allocated as .25 hit to a 2-2, .25 hit to a 3-3, .25 hit to a 4-4, and .25 hit to a 5-5.

Similarly double-pitches are allocated across the 4 possible DP’s, single-pitches are spread across the 8 possible SP’s, 1-Off’s are allocated across the 16 one-dice-off-axis possibilities, 2-Offs are allocated across the 4 possible both-dice-off-axis possibilities.

Because of this averaging of the roll allocations, more (or less) sevens can be credited to the shooter then were actually rolled.

On the BoneTracker side, the specific results are being tracked directly to specific dice face combinations.

Is this averaging a big deal?

I suppose it depends on what information you are trying to get out of the historical roll results. For practical application, the data presented will give you what you need.

Again, don’t be a slave to the statistics. They are there as a benchmark, a yardstick, a guide. Engineering precision about what you did two months ago is not required to develop a plan of attack that you will use for the casino tomorrow night.”


I couldn’t have said it better than Maddog, and I appreciate his lucid explanation.


How Important is Your SRR-Rate?
On one hand, your Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio determines the average duration of your point-cycle.

An SRR-6 random-rollers point-cycle will last an average of six rolls, while a skilled SRR-8 dice-influencer’s point-cycle will last an average of eight rolls. In knowing how long your average point-cycle will last, we can figure out all sorts of things like the optimal regression-point for a given set of bets, etc.

On the other hand, SRR is not the be-all and end-all of dice-influencing advantage-play. In fact, it only goes a limited way in telling you how much influence you are actually achieving over the dice.

Sometimes you will discover that one dice-set or one of it’s permutations will give you one SRR-rate while another will give you a completely different one. While using DiceTool I almost always completely ignore the SRR-rate.

Instead, I look at the edge I have over certain bets, primarily starting with the edge gained on my PL-Odds and the box-number Place-bets.

I am looking for the dice-set combination that will give me the highest edge over the house on the bets I am comfortable in making.

For example, if you never intend to use my Table-Adaptive Field-Harvest strategy; then why the heck would you consider the set that gives you the highest edge over that particular bet.

Likewise, if you don’t make Hardway bets other than as a toke for the crew; then seeking out the set-permutation that gives you the highest edge over the house on the Hard 6 and 8 or Hard-4 and 10 makes no sense at all.

Instead, I will look at which set produces the highest edge for me over the PL-Odds on various box-numbers in combination with let’s say the Inside-Numbers (5, 6, 8, and 9).

I will then let the dice-set that gives me the highest edge over those numbers dictate which permutation to use.

Here's a simple rule of thumb:

You use the dice-set that will give you the highest edge on the bet(s) that you intend to make.

SRR is only one measure of the degree to which you influence the dice. Another is the actual edge you are able to develop over a given set of bets.

I like my edge over the house to dictate which numbers that I bet on, and so, I let the set that will give me the highest edge dictate where to bet.

Instead of letting SRR rule the roost; I let my edge over the house rule which bets I wager on.


A Simple but Exploitable Metric
Looking at the difference (if any) between your primary-faced outcomes versus your double-pitched outcomes can provide a simple but effective metric in terms of determining not only if you have any influence over the dice, but also what kinds of bets would offer the biggest edge from that influence.

We know that random Foundation Frequencies are as follows:

Primary-faces On-Axis…………..11.11%
Double-pitches On-Axis …………11.11%
Single-pitches On-Axis ………….22.22%
One-die Off-Axis……………………..44.44%
Both-dice Off-Axis…………………..11.11%

At this point, the house-edge against all bets are exactly where they are supposed to be for a random-roller.

Let’s take a look at what happens when we add a little bit of on-axis control between primary-faced hits versus double-pitched outcomes (while all the other Foundation Frequencies remain random):

Primary-faces On-Axis…………...12.11%
Double-pitches On-Axis …………10.11%
Single-pitches On-Axis ………….22.22%
One-die Off-Axis……………………..44.44%
Both-dice Off-Axis…………………..11.11%

With just a little bit of on-axis facial-control the dice-influencer gains all kinds of exploitable opportunities.

For example, while using the traditionally-arranged V-3 dice-set; he’d enjoy a 2.0% edge on his PL-Odds when the Point is a 4 or 10…a 1.8% edge on his Odds when the PL-Point was a 5 or 9…and a 3.6% advantage over his Odds when the PL-Point is a 6 or 8.

Likewise, switching to the traditionally-arranged Hardway dice-set; he’d enjoy a 6.2% edge on his PL-Odds when the Point is a 4 or 10…a 3.7% edge on his Odds when the PL-Point was a 5 or 9…and a 4.4% advantage over his Odds when the PL-Point is a 6 or 8.

When he adds a little more on-axis facial influence and the ratio of primary-hits improves over his number of double-pitched outcomes; his exploitable edge becomes even greater.

Primary-faces On-Axis…………...13.11%
Double-pitches On-Axis ……….…9.11%
Single-pitches On-Axis ………….22.22%
One-die Off-Axis……………………..44.44%
Both-dice Off-Axis…………………..11.11%


For example, while using the traditionally-arranged V-3 dice-set; he’d enjoy a 4.2% edge on his PL-Odds when the Point is a 4 or 10…a 3.7% edge on his Odds when the PL-Point was a 5 or 9…and a 7.2% advantage over his Odds when the PL-Point is a 6 or 8.

Likewise, switching to the traditionally-arranged Hardway dice-set; he’d enjoy a 12.8% edge on his PL-Odds when the Point is a 4 or 10…a 7.8% edge on his Odds when the PL-Point was a 5 or 9…and a 8.9% advantage over his Odds when the PL-Point is a 6 or 8.

With all other things being equal, this shooters Place-bets also gain a significant edge over the house.

For example, while using the traditionally-arranged V-3 dice-set; he’d enjoy a 2.4% edge when Place-betting a Buy-bet on the 4 or 10 in a vig-only-on-a-win casino…and a 5.6% edge when Place-betting the 6 or 8.

Likewise, switching to the traditionally-arranged Hardway dice-set; he’d enjoy a 10.9% edge when Place-betting a Buy-bet on the 4 or 10 in a vig-only-on-a-win casino…a 3.4% edge when Place-betting the 5 or 9…and a 7.3% edge when Place-betting the 6 or 8.

Again, these are only some facile examples of how you might exploit what at first appears to be a very mild degree of influence; but they are quite illustrative in terms of showing how a small difference in your ratio of primary-hits versus double-pitched hits can be profitably utilized in a low-risk, high-return sort of way.

We’ll delve a little deeper into related concepts in Part Six of this series.


Until then,

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor

Copyright © 2007-2007



 

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on August 8, 2008 6:08 PM.

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