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DiceTool…Unlock Your Current Potential Part - 6

Using "Time" as a Metric of Success
"Time" in an advantage-play dice-influencers context can be measured by rolls-per-hand, rolls-per-hour, bet-decisions-per-hand, or bet-decisions-per-hour…or a combination of those.

You can also come up with other time-metrics such as EV-per-decision, EV-per-hand, or EV-per-hour; but it all comes down to how much your advantaged bets can make over a given period of time and a given number of decisions.

Now you can get silly about this and calculate all sorts of inane and impractical metrics like how many cups of coffee you’ll consume during an average session, or how many times per hour that the dice will bounce off the table versus how many dollar-bills you have in your pocket; but those things have nothing to do with a sane discussion about how to turn your dice-influencing skills into take-home profit. Just as trying to figure out how long a severely under-funded $20 buy-in will last on a $10 table may be fun; it’s a scenario and a time-metric that will rarely let you take proper advantage of your shooting-edge.

As an advantage-play dice-influencer, when you look at the amount of time that you spend at the table, you have to stick with the stuff that really matters, like edge-per-roll or edge-per-decision, and measure it against the average number of bet-decisions-per-hand or bet-decisions-per-hour that you currently generate when you are at the real-world tables. Doing so will give you a very firm handle on where your profit is most likely to come from…and how frequently you are likely to get it.

Recreational gamblers are there for the enjoyment of gambling, whereas, the advantage-play dice-influencer is there for the money.

When he considers time in the context of dollars-bet to dollars-won, and edge-per-decision compared to decisions-per-hand, as well as the average amount of time it takes to achieve his current win-goals; he gains a better understanding of where his existing D-I strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities are found…and how he can better deal with them in future sessions.

That is where DiceTool comes into play.

By identifying your best profit-making opportunities as well as exposing your worst bankroll-eroding threats; DiceTool lets you make the connection between your current de-randomizing skill and your current advantage-play potential.

Understanding the Most MIS-Understood Concept of Advantage-Play

For a Random-Roller:
The more random-bets and/or the more random-decisions your bets are subject to over a given period of time; then the more erosion a negative-EV randomly-betting player will experience. If all of the randomly wagered bets that are made are of negative-expectation; then the more a given bankroll will shrink.

For an A-P Dice-Influencer:
The more advantaged-bets and/or the more advantaged-decisions those bets are subject to over a given period of time; then the more growth a positive-EV advantage-betting dice-influencer will experience. If all of his bets are positive-expectation; then the more his bankroll will grow.

This is probably the least understood concept in the dice-influencing community today…and it is what keeps most of the incredibly talented shooters in our D-I community on the break-even or losing side of this game.

Most players look at their buy-in as something that has to be safeguarded and protected from erosion rather than something that has to be used effectively and ‘worked’ in order to turn what you have into something more and something greater.

The more you seek to protect your basic buy-in from the vagaries of volatility, the less it will be able to help you in terms of turning your D-I skills into realizable profit.

In other words, the very act of ‘protecting’ your bankroll has the opposite effect of why you took up dice-influencing in the first place. I mean, if you don’t want to expose your bankroll to any risk, then stay at home and watch Oprah and Dr. Phil.

For your bankroll to do its job, it has to be subjected to some risk. If you can’t accept that, then all of your D-I efforts have been for naught. All investments come with some risk. If you want nice safe ones then invest in T-bills and T-bonds.

An advantage-player’s gaming bankroll NEEDS to be exposed to risk in order for your edge over the house to manifest itself.

That is:

The less money you put at risk relative to the size of your bankroll; the less able it is to grow your bankroll.

The less money you put at risk on the wagers where you have the biggest edge over the house; then the slower your bankroll will grow.

If you under-fund your advantaged bets, then any other non-advantaged bets that you make will take a bigger overall bite out of your bankroll...and you may experience negative-growth despite your edge over the house.

Needless to say, as I pointed out in my book and stated here countless times; there is a limit to not only how much bankroll should be exposed at any one time, but also a limit over the number of positive EV bets your money should be spread over.

The more bets you spread out to, even in a positive EV game, the more volatility, and the more "flattened" your earnings-curve will be.

That’s right; though you would think your bets are subject to less volatility because they are spread over more potential paying numbers; your bankroll will be subject to more volatility simply because you usually require more paying hits for those wide-spread bets to pay for themselves before they reach net-profitability.

As a result, your short-hands which often produce a net-loss due to an insufficient number of paying hits, will conspire with your longer hands that lack the individual bet-winning ‘punch’ that a closer-grouped, higher-value set of bets would provide over the same time interval (as measured by number of rolls).


Proper Perspective Produces Greater Advantage
When you think about using your dice-influencing advantage to make money at the craps table, you really have to think in terms of putting your money where it will do the most good. In many cases that means focusing it on a small number of wagers.

Most players find it irksome to see several rolls go by without collecting a paying-hit from the few numbers where they are 'supposed' to have a huge edge; so they impatiently end up spreading their money to other low-advantage or no-advantage numbers.

While they often gain the craved-for instant gratification that comes from a higher hit-rate produced by an expanded range of bets; they fail to realize that if that same 7-exposure money-spread was concentrated on fewer wagers where they do have a dominant edge, their per-hand earnings would almost always yield a better rate-of-return than their current widely-spread but lower-funded betting strategy does.

That is where DiceTool comes into play.

As I mentioned a moment ago; by identifying your best profit-making opportunities as well as exposing your worst bankroll-eroding threats…and everything in between; DiceTool lets you make the connection between your current de-randomizing skill and your current advantage-play potential…in the most efficient, and cost-effective way.

There's a Simple Way to Validate
~Take the two top-performing box-numbers that your current favorite point-cycle dice-set produces.

~Take the value of your current betting-strategy (ie. $110-Inside, $100-Outside, $78/$81-Across, etc.), and divide it evenly between just your two top performing box-numbers.

~Take the average hits-per-hand that your current multi-number betting-strategy produces and HONESTLY figure out what your net-profit per hand is.

You get to the NET-profit amount by subtracting your box-number winning from the amount of Place-bet money that is on the table when you 7-Out at the end of an average hand.

The reason we use your 'average' hand duration is because it takes into consideration everything from your Point-then-7-Out wipeouts to your mega-duration headline-makers...and everything in between.

~Now take the average hits-per-hand currently generated by your top two performing box-numbers and multiply out their increased-value Place-bet payouts to determine what your net-profit per hand could be if you focused the lion's share of your Place-bet money on those two instead of spreading it more thinly across multiple others.

Now if you are going to harken back to the time in 1978 when you threw a 319-roll hand, and commiserate about all of the 'lost opportunity' that would have presented had you not spread out your bets and parlayed all of the Outside-number hits; then you only have to ask yourself why it is you remember that event and not very many of the intervening hands since then.

Further, if you are just going to roll one or two test hands to check out this which-approach-produces-a-better-rate-of-return process; then you are only fooling yourself. If you are really serious about making money; then you have to get serious about validating where your 7-exposure box-number money will do the most good.

If you have a validated advantage over a given box-number; then you can bet on it.

If you have a validated advantage over several box-numbers; then you can bet on all of them; however it often makes more economic sense to concentrate most of your per-hand 7-exposure money on the ones where you have the strongest edge...and the least on the box-numbers where you have the lowest edge...and NONE on the box-numbers where you have no edge at all.

Ideally though, if you want to grow your bankroll as quickly as possible; then focusing almost all of your per-hand 7-exposure box-number money on the top two performers with the strongest edge will accomplish that goal a lot faster than if you spread it across multiple bets with a lower overall advantage.

Until then,

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor

Copyright © 2007-2008


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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on August 16, 2008 3:32 PM.

The previous post in this blog was Casino Credit Update - Part Four.

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