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Does It Make $$$ense To Place-bet Some Box-Numbers While LAYING Another Box-Number at the Same Time?



Defining a New Advantage-Play Twist on an Old Concept
This is a strategy that gives you an edge when making certain negatively-influenced Lay-bets on one box-number while concurrently making positively-influenced Place-bets on one or more other box-numbers.

A positively-influenced number is one where it appears more than randomly-expected, or where it appears at its normal-rate but because we are able to throw less 7’s due to our dice-influencing efforts; that number ends up on the positive-EV side of the ledger.

A negatively-influenced number is one where you are throwing it less than randomly-expected. Now normally, for a Rightside-bettor, it would be the 7 that we would be trying to throw less of. However, often times in the process of trying to throw less 7’s, we also find that one or more other numbers are also negatively-influenced because they show up quite a bit less than randomly-expected.

It is in that mixed D-I salad of both negatively-influenced and positively-influenced box-numbers that we find yet another advantage-play opportunity.


How Does It Work
  - Let’s say that you are able to roll enough Sixes in between each average point-cycle Seven to have a positive-edge on the Six.

  - Let’s also say you currently roll an average of 1.8 Sixes for every one Five.

  - The payout on a $30 Place-bet 6 is $35.

  - On average, if you roll this 1.8 times per hand, you get paid $63 in between each Five.

  - This allows you to Lay-bet the 5 for $60 + $2 to pay the vig.

  - The $60 Lay-bet will pay $40 when you roll a 7, thus paying for the $30 Place-bet on the Six that was knocked down…and providing
an average expected profit of $10 per hand.

Now needless to say, my first inclination would just be to Place-bet the 6 with the lion's share of my 7-exposure money and ignore the Lay-bet opportunity on the 5.

Why?

Because the profit-margin that is gained by combining these bets to offset the others 'risk' is less than the profit-margin I would have if I either Place-bet the 6 on its own, or if I Lay-bet the 5 all on its own.

However, if I were into what amounts to an advantage-play hedge-bet frame of mind (which I almost never am) where risk is minimized at the price of overall profit; then I would definitely consider this sort of play.

Again though, this is one of those thin-margin plays where you are trading a fair amount of dollars back and forth with the casino…and ending up with an extremely modest profit.

But ask yourself this:


How Much Net-Profit Per Hand are You CURRENTLY Generating?
If you combine all of your wins and all of your losses, and then divide the net-figure into the number of hands it took to produce that; you may be surprised at how little net-revenue per hand your current skills are presently generating.

Again, I'm not necessarily advocating a simultaneuous Place-bet/Lay-bet strategy; it's just that you have to honestly appraise where your current skills are at...how much net-profit they are generating for you...and whether or not a different betting-strategy might be in order.

This issue is especially important for volatility-averse players who are modestly bankrolled.



Figuring Out If Your Current +/- Difference is Big Enough
When we look at whether it makes sense for us to Place-bet some numbers while concurrently Lay-betting another, it’s a good idea to know how much of a difference it takes to make these types of combined-but-contrary bets profitable.

Again, BoneTracker w/DiceTool can instantly tell us this, or we can do it manually based on the ratio between the various box-numbers that we throw over a statistically significant number of trials.

For example:

  -
If you are going to lay-bet the 4 or the 10 while Place-betting either the 6 or 8; then you’ll want to be producing about 1.5 Sixes (or Eights) for every 1 Four that you throw.

  - Conversely, if you plan to Buy the 4 or 10 while simultaneously Lay-betting the 6 or 8; then you’ll need to throw 0.75 Four’s or Ten’s for every one Six or Eight that you Lay against.

  - Stated another way, if you throw one Buy-bet 4 or 10, you can actually afford for a Lay-bet 6 or 8 to show up 1.3 times for this combined-but-contrary set of bets to break even.

  - Similarly, if you Buy the 4 or 10 while simultaneously Lay-betting the 5 or 9; then you’ll need to throw one Four or Ten for every 1.1 Five’s or Nine’s that you Lay against.



How NOT to Do This
It is important to note that you should not be Place-betting and Lay-betting within paired-sets of numbers.

For example, even if your shooting skill is quite high, Place-betting the 5 while Lay-betting the 9 would probably not be in your best interests.

Similarly, Buy-betting the 4 while simultaneously Lay-betting the 10 would require shooting skill that is beyond most player’s capabilities, as would Laying the 6 while Place-betting the 8.

The concept of Place-betting one or two box-numbers where you have the strongest, most dominant positive-edge...while simultaneously Lay-betting against the box-number where you have the biggest negative-edge is a bit of a tricky one.

On one hand it does offer a legitimate advantage-play option where you are essentially killing two birds with the same stone; but it can also be rife with problems if you are using too small of a roll-sample to determine whether you really have a validated edge over both contrary bets...or if you are easily discouraged when one or two sessions don’t go exactly the way you planned.

I would not recommend this type of betting strategy for players who easily give up on a method if their apparent edge doesn’t immediately and convincingly show up.

For instance, if you are the type that flits from one betting-method to the next…and then the next…and the next one after that...always searching for the Holy Grail before ever letting your validated edge prevail over the house despite any short-term variance; then this is definitely NOT the wagering approach for you.

Similarly, if you are the kind of players who tries a validated-edge betting-method once or twice and then gives up because it didn't instantly provide miraculous profits while whitening your whites and curing the heartbreak of psoriasis at the same time; then this is definitely NOT the wagering approach for you either.

On the other hand, if you have a validly derived positive-edge over the house on one or more box-numbers, and a convincing negative-edge over another box-number that isn’t a paired-twin to one of your strong pos-ex numbers...and you are willing to accept a much lower overall profit by engineering out a great deal of inter-hand volatility; then it can make a lot of $ENSE to Place-bet one or more box-numbers while Lay-betting another box-number at the same time.


Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.


The Mad Professor

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on August 21, 2008 8:37 PM.

The previous post in this blog was Is There Such a Thing as Off-Axis Dominants Part - 2.

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