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Evolving Skills Mean Evolving Opportunities-Part Two

Mad Professor’s Bet-Weighting Program
A while back we started talking about Bet-Weighting. It’s a wagering approach that simply let’s you take better advantage of your edge over the house.

When we talk about how much betting-weight we should put on certain box-numbers; we are really talking about first determining which of your box-numbers are most dominant, and then wagering the lion’s share of your allocated Place-bet money on those particular advantage-play opportunities.

In the simplest terms; by allocating the largest percentage of your Place-bet money on the numbers where you hold the biggest edge over the house, you are able to take better advantage of your dice-influencing advantage.

The bigger the advantage…the bigger the percentage of our Place-bet money that should be wagered on that number.


The smaller our advantage…the smaller the percentage of our Place-bet money that should be wagered on that number…if at all.

Big advantage…big money.

Smaller advantage…less money.

If a sizeable book of your rolls indicate that you have an advantage over ALL of the box-numbers (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, and 10); it will also probably indicate that your advantage isn’t evenly spread…and therefore, your Place-bet money probably shouldn’t be evenly distributed either.

For example, one of the biggest betting mistakes that many skilled shooters still make, is to spread their Place-bet action across too many numbers. While they may have an advantage over two or three or even all six of the box-numbers; chances are, their edge isn’t equally distributed across all of them.

As a result, the number(s) where you have the biggest edge get short-changed in terms of being UNDER-bet, and the lower-edge or negative-edged box-numbers get inadvertently OVER-bet.

The combination of under-betting your biggest-edge numbers while simultaneously over-betting your lowest-edge or negative-edge numbers has the effect of not only lowering your overall return-on-investment, but it also effectively lowers and erodes your edge over the house.

In other words, under-betting your strongest numbers and over-betting your weakest numbers unintentionally surrenders a good portion of the edge that you’ve worked so hard to develop. By “refunding” a portion of your edge to the house, you are effectively giving them a rebate on the money you could and should be earning.


You Don’t Have to Bet Bigger…Just Bet Better
It’s important to understand that…..

I’m not talking about increasing the total amount of money than you are currently comfortable in betting.

 

Instead, I’m simply talking about….

REDISTRIBUTING some of it onto your strongest, most dominant box-numbers while minimizing it on your weakest ones…and to keep you off of the negative-edged ones altogether.

In other words, bet-weighting is used to distribute your currently allotted Place-bet money onto the box-numbers where it will do the most good, and to minimize it or eliminate it entirely from the box-numbers bets where it will do the least good or the most harm.

Our friend, Dave of SA, gave me permission to use a set of his toss-stats to illustrate what I am talking about.

Here’s Dave’s results from Stick-Right:

SR

Tosses_____________720
SRR______________8.47
BSR_______________6.58
OA% _______366___50.83%
PFH________111___15.42%
SPH________198___27.50%
DPH_________57____7.92%
ODOffA_L___135___41.11%
________R___161
________T___296
BDOffA______58____8.06%

Toss...# Expected ----------- actual
Count

2--------------20-----------------19
3--------------40-----------------19
4--------------60-----------------75
5--------------80-----------------93
6-------------100----------------117
7-------------120----------------85
8-------------100----------------135
9--------------80-----------------73
10------------60-----------------66
11------------40-----------------27
12------------20-----------------11



Here’s his results from Stick-left:

SL

Tosses____________720
SRR_______________9.00
BSR_______________6.73
OA% _______356___49.44%
PFH_________89___12.36%
SPH________212___29.44%
DPH_________55____7.64%
ODOffA_L___147___39.72%
________R___139
________T___286
BDOffA______78___10.83%


Toss......# Expected ---------- Actual
Count

2----------------20-----------------21
3----------------40-----------------34
4----------------60-----------------62
5----------------80-----------------103
6---------------100----------------119
7---------------120----------------80
8---------------100----------------115
9----------------80------------------83
10---------------60-----------------56
11---------------40-----------------30
12---------------20-----------------17




Bet-Weighting Recommendations for Dave of SA
When shooting from SR; Dave would want to have about 37% of his Place-bet money on the Bought-4...17% of his Place-bet money on the 5...15% of his Place-bet money on the 6...and 31% of his Place-bet money on the 8.

Those figures represent how we would correctly apportion 100% of the Place-bet money Dave is currently comfortable in betting on his shooting from the stick-right position.

When shooting from SL; Dave would want to have about 52% of his Place-bet money on the 5...27% of his Place-bet money on the 6...and 21% of his Place-bet money on the 8.

Those figures represent how we would correctly apportion 100% of the Place-bet money Dave is currently comfortable in betting on his shooting from the stick-left position.



How do we figure that out?
Well, you have to take each box-numbers hit-frequency (relative to the 7) and then figure in it's payout ratio (2:1 for a Buy-4, 1.4:1 for a Place-bet 5, 1.166:1 for a Place-bet 6, etc).

That will not only give you a pretty good idea of how your Place-bet money should be distributed in and among the various box-numbers; but it will also ensure that your Place-bet money is being fully utilized, by providing maximum bang for each buck.



Dave's Probable Bet-Weighting Outcomes
Now that we’ve seen the recommendations for how much betting-weight should be apportioned to those box-numbers; let’s see what the likely results would be.

…..
From Stick-Right:

If Dave simply flat-bet the 4, 5, 6, and 8 from SR; he would have a ~76.4% ROI over and above his initial bet-investment...in this case it would produce an average net-profit of $84.07 on a $111 ($25+$1, $25, $30, and $30) investment.

If he wanted to use an Initial Steep Regression; his 7's-to-specific-Place-bets (as set out above) is 4.94:1...so he would still ideally regress after four Place-bet hits; but if ever there was fairly compelling reason to leave them up for 5 paying-hit; then this is the one.


….
From Stick-Left:

If Dave simply flat-bet the 5, 6, and 8 from SL; he would generally produce a ~79.5% ROI over and above his initial bet-investment...say for instance $63.56 net-profit on an $80 ($25, $30, and $30) investment.

If he wanted to use an Initial Steep Regression; his 7's-to-specific-Place-bets (as set out above) is 4.21:1...meaning he’d generally enjoy getting four paying-hits on the 5, 6, or 8, so he'd ideally regress after four Place-bet hits.


 

How To Apply Bet-Weighting to Your Own Toss-Stats
To apply this method to your own toss-stats you have to find WHERE your edge is and also how BIG it is. The easiest way to do that is to load everything into Maddog’s outstanding BoneTracker program and let it do the heavy lifting for you.

Once you know what your edge is over each box-number (if any); then you can simply determine which numbers deserve the most betting-weight...and which ones deserve the least...or none at all.

For example, let’s say BoneTracker shows that you have the following advantage relative to the number of 7’s that you are currently throwing while using your best dice-set scenario:


You throw 2.3% more 4’s than randomly-expected.

You throw -5.1% less 5’s than randomly-expected.

You throw 8.1% more 6’s than randomly-expected.

You throw 6.9% more 8’s than randomly-expected.

You throw 4.7% more 9’s than randomly-expected.

You throw -1.1% less 10’s than randomly-expected.


Right off the hop we know that you’ll have to stay away from Place-betting the 5 or 10 because both of those numbers are in negative-expectation territory; and if your roll-tracking is representative of your actual in-casino throwing; then those bets would be long-term losers.

To determine how much of your actual betting-weight you should be wagering on the remaining numbers, we have to take each box-numbers hit-frequency (relative to the 7) and then figure in it's payout ratio.

To do that is pretty simply. We know that the Place-bet payout ratios are as follows:

2-to-1 for a Buy on the 4 or 10

1.4-to-1 for a Place-bet on the 5 or 9

1.166-to-1 for a Place-bet on the 6 or 8

We then multiply our edge over these numbers (relative to the number of point-cycle 7’s that we throw) by their respective Place-bet payout ratios:

Since you throw 2.3% more 4’s than expected and a Place-bet on a Bought 4 or 10 pays 2-to-1; the better-than-even-money payout offers your current shooting a 4.6% edge over the house.

Since you throw 8.1% more 6’s than expected and a Place-bet on it pays 1.166:1; then we know that this wager offers a 9.4% advantage over the house.

Your large sampling of recently tracked results also show that you throw 6.9% more 8’s than expected, so a Place-bet on the 8 would offer an edge of about 8.0%.

Your roll-stats also show significant influence on the 9 where you throw 4.7% more of them relative to the number of 7’s that you throw. Since a Place-bet on the 9 pays 1.4-to-1; it translates into a 6.6% edge over the house.

 

Okay, let’s see where we stand.

You have a…

~4.6% edge over the Buy-bet on a 4

~You have no long-term edge over the Place-bet 5; so you are going to stay away from it.

~9.4% edge over the Place-bet 6

~8.0% edge over the Place-bet 8

~6.6% edge over the Place-bet 9

~~You have no long-term edge over the Place-bet or Bought 10; so you are going to stay away from it.



Apportioning Your Betting-Weight
Now that we know how big your actual edge over these Place-bets are; we can determine how much of your 7-exposure money you can reasonably apply to each of these wagers.

Now I’ll tell you right off the top that most recent immigrants from the advantage-play blackjack field will tell you that putting all of your allowable 7-exposure money on your ONE top number is the best way to play and the easiest path to building your bankroll…and to a certain extent that is absolutely true.

However since dice-influencing is a highly-nuanced physical activity that requires you to keep your head into the game and not be distracted by a frustratingly frequent appearance of box-numbers that you aren’t betting on; I’m going to suggest that you include the top two or three best performers in your Place-bet regimen.

While doing so may slightly dilute some of your potential earnings (by not having ALL of your 7-exposure Place-bet money on your single-most highest performing box-number); it will save you a ton of frustration and second-guessing in the middle of a typical roll.

So how do we figure exactly how much money we should distribute on the box-numbers we have an edge on?

Well we calculate how much betting-weight each box-number deserves in terms of their known performance and their true edge over the house.

To do that we simply add up the edge-percentages on the bets where we have an advantage and then divide them by their proportionate share of our 7-exposure comfort-level.

In this case we add the 4.6% edge from your Buy-bet on a 4…with the 9.4% edge you have over the Place-bet 6…and the 8.0% edge you have over the Place-bet 8…along with the 6.6% edge you have over the Place-bet 9.

(4.6 + 9.4 + 8.0 + 6.6 = 28.6)

We then divide each of those edge numbers into the 28.6 sum.

16% for the Bought 4

33% for the Place-bet 6

28% for the Place-bet 8

23% for the Place-bet 9

At this point I would personally be somewhat tempted to drop the idea of betting on the 4. Although your roll-stats may show that you have an edge over it; your money will generate a much stronger rate of return if it were deployed on your top three box-numbers (the 6, 8 and 9); but for this exercise we’ll still include the 4.




Your 7-Exposure Comfort-Level
Let’s say that you are currently comfortable with spreading a total of about $120 on your Place-bets. You can plug in any other comfort-level numbers if you wish, but I’ll use that $120 7-exposure figure to illustrate what I’m talking about.

To determine the appropriate betting-weighting for each of the Place-bets where we have a known and proven edge, we simply wager in proportion to that advantage.

So with a $120 set for our 7-exposure comfort-level; we would wager:

16% on the Bought 4…$19.20…so we’ll round it up to $20 + $1 for vig.

33% on the Place-bet 6…$39.60…so we’ll round it up to $42.

28% on the Place-bet 8…$33.60…so we’ll round it down to $30.

23% on the Place-bet 9…$27.60…so we’ll round it down to $25.

We’ve spread $118 in Place-bet 7-exposure money, and we can be confident that it will generate a reasonable mix between optimal return-on-investment and a high-frequency hit-rate that won't mess with our minds while we are shooting.

That in a nutshell, Bet-Weighting allows you to get the most bang for each 7-exposure buck without any of the frustration of waiting for your single-most best bet to eventually hit.


If you bet your money in proportion to your true edge over the house; your bankroll will grow exponentially…and that is what the Mad Professor's Bet-Weighting Program is all about.


As always,

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.


The Mad Professor

Copyright © 2007-2008

 

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on August 6, 2008 2:11 PM.

The previous post in this blog was Evolving Skill Means Evolving Betting Opportunities.

The next post in this blog is Your Telegraph is Ringing.

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