« Is There Such a Thing as Off-Axis Dominants Part - 1 | Main | Does It Make $$$ense To Place-bet Some Box-Numbers While LAYING Another Box-Number at the Same Time? »

Is There Such a Thing as Off-Axis Dominants Part - 2


"Can you change dice-sets or permutations to get a better set of Off-Axis Dominants without adversely affecting your On-Axis Signature-Numbers too much?"

The more I thought about this question…the shorter the answer became.

The quick answer is, YES you can.

The easiest and simplest way to do it is to let the dice-set permutation tabs in Maddog’s BoneTracker do all of the work for you.

However, if you are a player who wants to gain a more thorough understanding of the why’s and wherefore’s of your advantage, as well as the how’s, when’s, and where’s of your edge over the casino; then it takes a little more investigation.


Understanding our Influence

When we look at the amount of impact, effect, and suasion our dice-influencing efforts have over the dice; it also makes a lot of sense to look at how much of that influence is contributed by any of our off-axis outcomes as well. Our friend Maddog calls that kind of combined on-axis and off-axis facial-correlation, our individual “Pattern of Influence” (POI).

For example, when one or the other die goes off-axis, there are 16 possible outcomes. All things being equal in a randomly-thrown world, all sixteen possible outcomes would each have an equal 6.25% chance of showing up within that grouping (and each of those sixteen possible off-axis outcomes would have an equal 2.77% chance of showing up within the total 36 possible outcomes grouping).

When we start influencing the dice however, we find that certain facial outcomes occur more often than randomly expected, while there are others that show up significantly less often than randomly-expected.

That is where a significant amount of our influence over the dice can be found.

Okay, so when you study your roll-stats through Maddog’s BoneTracker and you notice that a couple of your one-die off-axis outcomes dominate and outperform their expected appearance-rate...but that specific number isn’t to your liking; what can you do about it?

For example, let’s say that one of your one-die off-axis dominants while using the V-3 set is a ODOA 6/6 12-Midnight outcome.

Can you change dice-sets or use a permutation of the same-set to get a better choice Off-Axis Dominants without adversely affecting your On-Axis Signature-Numbers too much?

I say you can.

By custom-tailoring your set-permutation to match the Foundation Frequencies of your current toss-dynamics, you can often get a better choice Off-Axis Dominant without adversely affecting your On-Axis Signature-Numbers.

In fact, while using BoneTracker, you will often find that a slight change in dice-set permutation will bolster and strengthen your edge over the house solely because your new off-axis dominant is now supporting your already-strong on-axis numbers.

Many players try to do this based strictly on what they like to call "gambler's intuition" instead of relying on a strong analytical tool like BoneTracker. Unfortunately, in most cases they are doing themselves a bit of a disfavor simply because they mostly 'trade' one good number for another...while their overall edge stays the same...or even declines.

The other problem of course is that many players shy away from certain dice-sets because they have ingrained an erroneus and dogmatic mistrust of some set choices...despite the overwhelming evidence that it would best serve their current throwing style toss-dynamics.

In either case, they are severely limiting their profit potential because they are limiting their thinking to something that comfortably fits within a narrow and restrictive code of belief...but results in bettable-outcomes that are nowhere near as profitable as they could be.

Let’s find out why.


The Source of Your Advantage
I think it is illuminative to look at how each of the Foundation Frequency categories are structured.

Primary-face hits...there are 4 possible outcomes.

Single-pitched hits...there are 8 possible outcomes.

Double-pitched hits...there are 4 possible outcomes.

Those three F-F categories account for all possible on-axis outcome possibilities.

One-Die Off-Axis hits...there are 16 possible outcomes.

Both Dice Off-Axis hits...there are 4 possible outcomes.

Those two F-F categories account for all possible off-axis outcome possibilities.

Combined, those five Foundation Frequency categories account for each and every possible outcome.

Of the randomly-tossed ON-Axis possibilities, the Primary-faced hits equal Double-pitched possibilities.

In the hands of a dice-influencer, the objective is to increase the number of hits in one category while decreasing the amount of hits in the other. The greater the difference between those two numbers; the greater that shooters exploitable edge. So all other things being equal, the greater the ratio between P-F hits and D-P hits, the greater that players advantage
.

On-Axis Single-pitched possibilities are double both the single-pitch and double-pitched possibilities because a die can be single-pitched either forward or backward by one die face (or triple-pitched if you will). So when we look at the single-pitched results, they will usually be around double the amount of primary-faced or double-pitched outcomes, but not necessarily so.

In a random game, you can expect 11.1% primary-faced outcomes, 22.2% single-pitched outcomes, 11.1% double-pitched outcomes, 44.4% one-die off-axis outcomes, and 11.1% both-dice off-axis outcomes.

Dice-influencing exploitability comes from ANY difference ABOVE or BELOW random-expectancy.

Let me repeat that again because many people don't really understand how edge is gained in this game, and so they just look at one category like total On-Axis outcomes and say, "Sheeet, this D-I thing don't work", yet if they looked a little deeper, they would see that they have created quite a huge edge for themselves...only it isn't in the OBVIOUS spot that they are currently looking.

Again, dice-influencing exploitability comes from ANY difference ABOVE or BELOW random-expectancy.



In an Ideal World
In a perfect-world casino our off-axis dominants would produce a nearly-identical number of bettable-outcomes as our on-axis results do. In fact in an ideal world, those off-axis dominant numbers would perfectly mirror the same on-axis Signature Numbers where we are currently showing a positive-expectation advantage.

Unfortunately though we play in a real-world environment that is hardly ever ideal. In that case we have to do a little extra work to figure out which dice-set permutation would optimize our blend of on-axis Signature-Numbers with our off-axis dominants.


In a Not-So-Ideal World

Let’s think back to the randomly-expected Foundation Frequencies:

In a random game, you can expect 11.1% primary-faced outcomes, 22.2% single-pitched outcomes, 11.1% double-pitched outcomes, 44.4% one-die off-axis outcomes, and 11.1% both-dice off-axis outcomes.

That means that a random-roller will keep the dice on-axis about 44.44% of the time, and the other 55.56% of the time, they will be off-axis.

When we start out on our dice-influencing journey, we try to keep the dice on-axis a little more than randomly-expected by setting their primary-faces to the outcomes that we hope to achieve. Our rate-of-success varies of course just as our individual rate-of-improvement varies too.

As I said a moment ago, the one over-riding thing that we have come to know, is that dice-influencing exploitability comes from ANY difference ABOVE or BELOW random-expectancy.

That simply means that if we are able to produce results that are either above random-expectancy or below it; we can exploit that difference and make money from it.

How much money we make from exploiting that difference comes from how we BET that tiny difference above or below random.

Unfortunately, if we try to do all of those calculations based on intuition and instinct (where we eschew the math, and instead go with our gut); we often end up with a very imperfect blend of bets that don't fully capture our edge in an altogether profitable sort of way.

That is, we often end up with a blend of bets where some are net-profitable, while others are net-deficient. If you bet with your gut instead of a fully-informed brain, those interlaced pos-ex and neg-ex bets will almost always produce far less net-profit than if your bets were properly synchronized with your current combined on-axis Signature-Numbers and Off-Axis Dominant pattern-of-influence.


Fortunately, we have an ideal tool which perfectly synchronizes our on-axis S-N’s with our off-axis Dom’s...and let's us custom-configure our dice-set in order to maximize our edge over certain target bets.

Let’s find out how.



Let Your Fingers do the Walking
So how do we custom-tailor our set-permutation to match the Foundation Frequencies of our current toss-dynamics in order to get a better choice Off-Axis Dominants without adversely affecting your On-Axis Signature-Numbers?

This one is easy.

Maddog’s unsurpassed BoneTracker w/DiceTool looks at face-control correlation and our individual Pattern of Influence, and shows in graphic detail which set-permutation will give us the strongest, most-compelling edge over the house.

So even when one or both of our dice go off-axis, but do so in a fairly predictable percentage-toss sort of way, the Foundation Frequencies that make up our Pattern of Influence are sorted, filtered, and purified by BoneTracker in such as way that the end result is that we can clearly see which dice-set permutation gives us the best edge over a given set of bets...and by doing so, you get a better set of Off-Axis Dominants whose only effect on your On-Axis Signature-Numbers is to bolster and strengthen your current edge.

However, if you aren’t using BoneTracker to figure it out or you aren’t a math-wiz; then don’t count on your ‘gambler’s intuition’ to do anything else but reinforce money-losing false notions which highlight outmoded “I-won’t-use-certain-dice-sets-no-matter-how-much-money-I-could-win-with-them” superstitious sentimentalities.

Smart players use BoneTracker to track their edge and determine their best bets.

Advantage-players use BoneTracker to increase their current edge by custom-tailoring their dice-sets.



As always,

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor

Copyright © 2007-2008

Do you have questions or comments about the articles and subjects discussed here at the Dice Institute? Sign up for our member's forum and share them with us!

About

This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on August 21, 2008 8:36 PM.

The previous post in this blog was Is There Such a Thing as Off-Axis Dominants Part - 1.

The next post in this blog is Does It Make $$$ense To Place-bet Some Box-Numbers While LAYING Another Box-Number at the Same Time?.

Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

Creative Commons License
This weblog is licensed under a Creative Commons License.
Powered by
Movable Type 3.34