The Dice-Set You Choose is All That Stands Between Your SKILL and the Casino’s MONEY
(Reprinted From Our Member's Message Board)
Our shooting-influence comes from the degree by which we are able to affect random outcomes.
All it takes is a little nudge to transform this negative-expectation game into a positive-expectation one. The problem of course is that deriving a profit from any thin edge we create is another matter entirely.
The dice don’t ‘know’ which set they’ve been arranged in. I’m not trying to be funny when I say that. What I mean is that the dice are only affected by the toss-inputs that we impart when we throw them along with any other consequence-effectors that impact their final outcome before they come to rest at the other end of the table.
So we set them in a certain arrangement, we grip them a certain way, we throw them (hopefully at exactly the same precise time) in a certain direction at a certain speed and trajectory, and with a certain amount of spin (if any), to a certain initial target area (and again hopefully with BOTH of them doing all of this at the same exact time and on the same precise horizontally-level and vertically-aligned flight-path).
Along the way, they impact the table-surface as well as the backwall. They may also impact ‘foreign objects’ like chips, hands, and the point-marking puck.
All of those consequence-effectors impact their final outcome.
So what does that have to do with the fact that the dice don’t ‘know’ which set they’ve been arranged in?
Well as you know, there are six-faces on each die. With both dice combined, there are 36 possible outcomes that a dice-toss can produce.
There are six (and only six) basic dice-set families (V-2, V-3, X-6, HW, P-6, and S-6).
All possible dice-set arrangements fall within one of these families. There is no lost-tribe seventh family of dice-sets. All possible dice-set permutations, variations, and transpositions neatly fit within those six families. If anyone tells you otherwise, they don’t know what they are talking about.
Now let me ask you this:
Does it make a difference to the dice if you double-pitch an on-axis outcome?
Honestly, do the dice know or care what set they’ve been arranged in, or is the end result (their final outcome) merely a combination of the starting-set you first arranged them in and the overall influenced-effect that all the other things (your grip, release-point, spin-rate, trajectory, flight-speed, apogee, descent angle, initial impact rebound, impact-angle into the backwall and the unspent energy they expend during their rollout) all contributors to their ending up in a somewhat-correlated-to-your-initial-dice-set outcome?
Do the dice say to themselves, “Oh, my master is switching from the V-3 set to the V-2 set and he thinks I do far fewer double-pitches with this arrangement, so I better not let him down?”
Of course not.
A double-pitch is a double-pitch no matter what the dice-set is. Now obviously different dice-sets will produce different outcome-results when a double-pitch occurs, and that is why we choose various dice-sets to take advantage of (or work around) our own particular toss-characteristics.
But if you THINK you throw far fewer double-pitches while using one set as opposed to another; then it is the mental crap going on in between your ears that is affecting the physical stuff going on down at your fingertips that is making the difference…and NOT the dice-set itself.
Fool yourself if you want to, but I can assure you that the dice themselves DO NOT KNOW what set you are using.
So, why do we choose a given dice-set, and how will one dice-set be more beneficial than another?
Well it all comes down to the way that we are able to influence the dice. Our friend "Maddog" calls it our personal Pattern of Influence.
That means that when measured over a reasonable number of tosses, we can determine how and in what ways we are actually affecting the dice-outcomes. Armed with that information, we can tailor a dice-set is optimized for own personal throwing characteristics.
In order to select the dice-set that best takes advantage of your current dice-throwing skills, you first need to find out in what ways and by how much your throws differ from random.
Ø If your throws are indistinguishable from random, then no dice-set will make you a winner. Hopefully your throws do differ from random, and that they differ enough to enable you to make actionable positive-expectation wagers against them.
There are several ways in which your throws can differ from random, so selecting a dice-set is not a one-size-fits-all exercise.
Ø For people who have enough control over the dice to be able to play craps with an edge but not enough ability to be able to throw outcomes of their choosing at will, there are two categories of differences from random.
Ø They are; how well you are able to stop your dice on-axis, and how well you can keep the starting primary-faces together.
Ø You might be able to do one of them, or you might be able to do the other, and ultimately as your skill-set increases, you should be able to gain the ability to do both.
The process of selecting a set starts with a sample of your dice throws.
Ø Use your freshest practice-roll or actual-casino data.
Ø Recency is most important because the more up-to-date the roll-stats are; the better they will reflect your current dice-tossing abilities. It makes no sense to be using ancient roll-data from several months ago if you were still experimenting with different grip-types, body-positions and when you were still developing the basic toss-dynamics and throwing-style that you are using today.
Ø The size of your roll-date sample is next most important.
Ø If you look at too small of a sample, you’ll think you see all kinds of indicators that are just short-term deviations and outcome variations. They aren’t relevant, and generally they aren’t even actionable from an advantage-betting standpoint.
Ø Equally, if the roll-sample is too big, your most recent dice-influencing accomplishments and betting-opportunities may be hidden in amongst the enormity of the sampling and therefore your most recent improvements won’t be evident…and you may miss them entirely.
Ø Use as large a sample as possible, but don’t use data more than about a month old.
Ø Compare what the differences are between your results and the results produced by random dice, and then look at the size of the differences.
Ø The bigger the differences between your results and random-outcomes, the better.
Ø No matter what the differences are or what particular numbers that show the most disparity, the key is that you determine WHAT they are and how they are being produced.
Ø To do that, we start by figuring the frequencies with which you produce five different categories of outcomes:
· Frequency of primary-hits
· Frequency of double-pitches
· Frequency of single-pitches on-axis
· Frequency of one die on-axis and the other off axis
· Frequency of both dice off-axis
These five categories include ALL possible dice throws; there is no sixth category, and those five categories let you classify and sort where your best opportunities lie.
Likewise there is no overlap within those categories; each dice throw fits into one and ONLY one category.
Ø A primary-hit is the same two rotating faces that start out together. There are four primary-hit faces. If for example, you set the Hardways (where both dice rotate on their 1-6 axes, and the rotating faces are 3-3, 2-2, 4-4, and 5-5); then the four primary hits are the Hardways: 2-2, 3-3, 4-4, and 5-5.
Ø The best place to determine all of the above roll-data is on your at-home Practice-Rig. This is especially true when you are just starting out and your finger-alignment, grip-pressure, and toss-dynamics are still in their formative stages.
Ø If you are going to be selecting a dice-set based on live-money casino tosses; then I suggest using the Hardways-set to make those roll-data determinations. Now seasoned dice-influencers may consider that to be blasphemy especially coming from me, but before you start fashioning a gasoline-soaked effigy, let me point out that Hardway-set outcomes facilitate easier tracking due to the simplicity of identifying which tosses are primary-hits as well as which ones are off-axis…so put down that match.
Ø If you want to use a dice-arrangement other than the Hardways to gather information to choose a set, then it’s best to use two colors of dice, but again you can only do this on your Practice Rig, so it once again points up the benefits of doing all of this without having your money on the line.
Ø If you use dice of two colors, then you could for example set 3-V with a red 5 and green 1 on the near faces; where a throw result of red 5 and green 1 would be a primary-hit, whereas a result of green 5 and red 1 would fall into the category of both dice off-axis.
Ø Suppose for the moment that you use the Hardways-set to gather your sample of tosses.
· As mentioned above, the four primary-faces are 2-2, 3-3, 4-4, and 5-5.
· The four double-pitch faces for the Hardways-set are the two ways to get 2-5 as well as both ways to get 3-4.
· There are eight ways to get a single-pitch on-axis outcome. They are; both ways to get 2-3, both ways to get 2-4, both ways to get 3-5 and both ways to get 4-5.
· There are sixteen ways to get one die on-axis and one die off-axis. They are; one die showing 1 or 6 and the other die showing 2, 3, 4 or 5.
· There are four ways to get both dice off axis. They are; 1-1, 6-6, and both ways to get 1-6.
That accounts for all thirty-six possible permutations of two dice.
Ø You should have a MINIMUM sample of at least 500 rolls to be reasonably confident that your sample results are accurate indicators of what your near-term future results are going to be.
Ø Larger is better when it comes to sample size, but again, you don’t want to include tosses that are so old that they are no longer relevant or representative of your current skill level.
Ø The sample size does not have to be a round number, nor does it have to be a multiple of 36.
Ø Armed with that up-to-date roll-outcome information, take a look at what it is telling you about your own frequencies of ending up with various combinations of dice faces.
Knowing which categories occur considerably more frequently or significantly less frequently than random, allows you to make intelligent decisions regarding what dice-set to use and subsequently what advantaged-bets to make.
…and that’s the subject we’re going to get into in Part Two of this first chapter of my New Testament Shooting Bible.
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2008