BoneTracker w/DiceTool Determines Your Advantage and (should) Direct Your Wagers
(Reprinted From Our Members Message Board)
You can estimate what your advantage will be on various bets using different dice-sets provided you can continue to produce the same mix of dice outcomes. In other words, you can actually project what various bets using various sets will generate in the way of profit…all based on what your most recent relevantly-sized roll-data is telling you.
We do that most easily by employing BoneTracker w/DiceTool.
Any shooter whose Foundation Frequencies differ even slightly from random will be able to get an edge on Pass-line or Don’t Pass Odds-bets through proper selection of a dice-set. Clearly, one dice set may not be best for ALL numbers; so a shooter might be better off with one dice-set to try to make a 6 or 8, and another dice-set to try to make a different number.
As I explained in Part One of this chapter in the New Testament, Foundation Frequencies DO NOT ignore or eschew on-axis shooting. In fact, what DiceTool does, is to take ALL of a players pertinent roll-sample outcomes into account regardless of the dice-set that is used, and then analyses them to determine which bets will work best (or worst) for EVERY set.
That is, it extends and extrapolates a roll-sample grouping over each and every basic dice-set (regardless of the actual set that was used to gather the data) and evaluates it against each and every bet on the table; and then shows what your edge (or deficit) is over each wager.
To do all of that accurately, the model has to take all outcomes (including off-axis ones) into account.
How Do OFF-Axis Results Figure Into Your Overall Edge?
~If a player is able to keep the dice ON-axis, let's say 55% of the time; those O/A results should clearly be exploitable.
~A savvy player would also want to look at the whole picture, by way of considering what the dice are doing when one or both of them go OFF-axis the OTHER 45% of the time.
~If those off-axis outcomes are truly random, then clearly they probably would not be bettably-exploitable.
~However, if certain numbers continually show up MORE than random or LESS than random...even if they are produced by an off-axis result; then a skilled dice-influencer has to at least consider that contribution (or diminution) into his overall betting plan.
By doing so, he may be surprised to find that some of those OFF-axis dominants actually augment and support his ON-axis results.
If that is the case, then those off-axis dominants make his O/A betting-opportunities even MORE compelling.
~Equally, he may determine that those off-axis outcomes merely diminish his player-advantage over certain bets...and in fact turn a fair number of them into unsupportable wagers.
~Still further, while using that model, a dice-influencer may discover that some of his off-axis dominants produce an entirely NEW wagering prospect that doesn't even register when only O/A results are looked at in detached isolation.
DiceTool looks at all outcomes.
It acknowledges that the dice don't "know" what faces they were originally set on, so their outcome is solely determined by the amount and consistency of a dice-shooters "influence" over them.
Again, The Dice Do Not Know What Set They Were Arranged In
It is your THROW that determines the final facial-outcomes when the dice land at the other end of the table and NOT the way you pre-arrange them before the throw.
Unless a player changes the way he throws the X-6 set as opposed to how he throws the V-3 or HW or S-6 or P-6 set; then the facial-relationships will be the same.
That is, he'll get the same number of double-pitches with the X-6 as he does with the V-3...simply because the dice don't know which set you were using when you threw them. They are only influenced by HOW you throw them.
~The closer to random our throws are, the less exploitable they are, and the narrower our betting choices remain.
~The further we progress past random, the more exploitable our throws are and the wider our betting choices become.
~Shooting proficiency determines how exploitable those facially-correlated outcomes will be.
~DiceTool uses a player's currently pertinent roll-data and determines exactly where and by how much his edge over the house is against any given bet on the table.
~Further, it does that bet-evaluation for each of the dice-sets, as well as permitting the user to input ANY permutation within a given set to see what contribution or diminution that would make.
While it’s true that your off-axis results vary not only from table to table, but also from hand to hand, and even toss to toss; so too do your ON-axis results, so you have to use common sense in applying the information that you glean.
For example, if a players influence is too unreliable and inconsistent in order to get an accurate read other than to say that his outcomes are nearly indecipherable from random; then his edge, if any, is going to be extremely hard to gauge regardless of how hard he tries to interpret his inconsistent roll-data.
Clearly that player needs to develop his dice-influencing skills much further before he starts to wager serious money on the numbers where he THINKS he has an advantage.
On the other hand, those players who have developed the ability to influence the dice beyond random (and over a statistically-valid number of trials on a table or practice-rig that closely mimics the tables he is most likely to be playing at); are the players who will directly benefit from my approach to advantage-play craps.
My intent with DiceTool is to merge precision-shooting with precision-BETTING, and to assist the player in terms of evaluating ANY bets that he is contemplating...as well as uncovering some wagers where he didn't even realize he had ANY edge at all, let alone a HUGE one.
Bridging the Gap Between Your Skill and Your Deserved Profit
My sense of it is that many players have had a difficult time up until now in their ability to turn their dice-influencing skills into consistently reliable revenue.
I would like to change that frustrating disconnect between talent and profit...and frankly BoneTracker with DiceTool, when applied correctly, gives you that ability.
B-T w/D-T bet-analysis software looks at a player’s OVERALL ability to influence the dice and converts it into bettable-opportunities. DiceTool simply codifies and quantifies your ability to exert any influence whatsoever over the dice. It does that by surveying how the dice react to your toss-input.
It does all that codifying and quantifying by looking at your five Foundation Frequencies.
~There are four possible on-axis primary-face outcomes.
~There are eight possible on-axis single-pitch (in either direction) outcomes.
~There are four possible on-axis double-pitch outcomes.
~There are sixteen possible single-dice off-axis outcomes.
~There are four possible both-dice off-axis outcomes.
A savvy advantage-play dice-influencer lets DiceTool look at his outcomes by way of those just-named Foundation Frequencies, and lets it determine what set and what bets within that set are most exploitable.
It looks at all of the sets and all of the bests and shows you what set/bet combination would work best, and which ones would work worst…and everything in between.
In other words, it helps you determine exactly where you have an edge and how much of an edge you actually have. It takes a critical look at your current dice-influencing skills, and helps you decide exactly where your best betting opportunities are found.
Helping a player connect his de-randomizing abilities with his deserved profit is something that I think is worth vigorously pursuing.
The disconnect between dice-influencing skill and profit-producing wagers is one that has plagued the entire dicesetting community for far too long. We've seen the disappearance of countless players who had the dice-influencing talent, but weren't able to reliably link those abilities with properly apportioned betting.
I seek to put an end to that.
Once a player is properly armed with all the critical information he needs to convert his shooting-skill into wagering-profit; then he may see the wisdom behind putting his money where his strongest-edge numbers are.
Will most players ignore that strongest-edge opportunity and continue spreading their bets the same way they always have…and continue to get the same results they usually do?
Of course they will.
OVER-betting their weak-edge or no-edge bets while simultaneously UNDER-betting their strongest-edge bets is not a new phenomenon, and it isn’t just reserved for the latest crop of dice-influencing students; it is a widespread epidemic amongst the entire dice-influencing community, and it continues to kill off more bankrolls than any streak of bad-shooting sessions ever could.
The human nature of most gamblers is to hang onto methods that just don't work. They would rather stick with "comfortable losing" instead of going through the initial adaptation discomfort that it takes to put themselves on the consistently profitable side of the advantage-play situation.
All That Stands Between Your Skill-Determined Dice-Set and the Casino’s Money, Is Your Optimally-Wagered Bets
The way you influence the dice (as quantified by your own personal Foundation Frequencies), is how you determine the optimal dice-set/optimal wagers combination that is best for you.
Frankly, I don't care what dice-set a player uses as long as it is the best one for HIM and as long as he closely matches it with properly sized wagers.
Advantage-play dice-influencing is all about matching your D-I skills to the wagers where you have the highest edge.
If you put your money on the bets where you have an edge, and keep it away from the ones where you don’t have an edge or where you have less of an edge than your strongest-advantage ones; then you'll make more money more often, and you can get on with doubling and re-doubling your current bankroll much faster, and with much less overall risk-of-ruin.
In some cases, that optimal dice-set may be the traditionally-arranged V-2 or a twisted permutation of the V-3 set. For a fair number of players, it might be the Hardway-set. Strange as it may seem, for some players, their optimal Right-side set might be the counter-intuitive S-6 set or a transposed alteration of the P-6 arrangement.
The idea is to use the dice-set that is right for your bets. You can’t base that decision of what a dice-set is hypothetically "supposed to" produce if it is kept on-axis for some theoretically-unrealistic percent of the time.
DiceTool is not the basis of some grand conspiracy to convert the D-I world to dice-sets that DON'T work or to force you into bets where you hold no edge. Instead, it is here to help you make skill-to-profit decisions and connections that DO work.
My approach to advantage-play betting is to look at EVERY dice-set across the entire dice-influencing spectrum and determine what the player-edge is on every single bet for every single one of those dice-sets.
Based on that, you can determine where your money will do the most good.
You can then custom-tailor your bets to match your current abilities. With DiceTool there is no fabrication, conspiracy, preference, or predisposition of one set over the other...only fact…and the fact is; if you want to make all kinds of money off of this game; then you have to put your money where your B-T w/D-T validated-advantage is.
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2008