Mad Professor's Not-So-Random Thought for Saturday, 2 August 2008
(Reprinted from our message board)
The ironic thing about wagering on the Field is that most casino pit-dwellers look at it the same way the majority of semi-informed gamblers do.
That is, they both consider the Field-bet to be a bad bet.
That’s why you’ll never see a knowledgeable player making a Place-bet on the 5 or 9. With its -4.0% house-edge, they know that a Place-bet on the 5 or 9 is far worse (43% worse to be exact) than betting on a triple-pay-12 Field-bet where the house-edge is only -2.78%.
Oh, wait a minute.
We do see plenty of ‘knowledgeable’ players Place-betting the 5 and 9, but who wouldn’t be caught dead making a ‘stupid’ bet like on the Field. Those are the same guys who will recklessly bet all kinds of prop-bet Horn-High-Whatever’s and Three-way Craps; but look at Field-bettors with a derision they usually reserve for rapists, pedophiles, and Constitutionalists.
What are they thinking?
If the triple-pay-12 Field-bet is a “bad” bet at -2.78%; then how is the Place-bet 5 or 9 with a house-edge of -4.0%, a “good” bet?
Similarly, if a double-pay-12 Field-bet’s 5.56% HA is a “bad” bet that they’d never even consider putting money on; then how is a Horn-bet with a house-edge of 12.5%, or a World-bet’s 13.33% house-edge, a “good” bet that does warrant their betting-dollars?
The ironic thing is that most gamblers…and an unusually high number of apparently-knowledgeable dice-influencers will scorn, ridicule, and mock Field-bet advantage-players while they themselves merrily make higher-vig Place-bets on the 5 and 9…along with an unhealthy amount of even higher-vig wagers on the World, the Horn, and Three-way Craps.
Without doubt, the Field-bet is a terrible wager when a random-roller is tossing the dice; but it can be a highly-effective and incredibly lucrative bet in the hands of a skilled-shooter.
So why is the Field-bet such a commonly misunderstood bet by seemingly well-informed dice-influencers?
Well, as in most things in life where there isn’t an intentional effort to stay ignorant just so they don’t have to change their minds about something they’ve been mindlessly indoctrinated to believe in regardless of the truth; it comes down to a simple lack of complete knowledge.
For example, some of them will tell you that since the Place-bet 5 or 9 takes about 4.0 rolls to reach a win or lose decision, and the Field-bet is resolved on an every-roll-is-a-decision basis; they consider Place-bets to be a far better “longer lived” wager than the Field.
While that statement is correct, it only tells a portion of the complete picture, especially where advantage-betting is concerned; so let’s consider it in its full A-P context.
In solely looking at how long a bet is likely to ‘live’ as opposed to trying to accelerate how quickly a bet is likely to produce a net-profit, does a complete disservice to what the astute dice-influencer is ultimately trying to accomplish.
That is, if you are trying to get your bets to ‘live’ as long as possible (with less regard to whether it wins or loses, and more regard to delaying the possible pain of a non-winning decision); then you are actually hampering your money-making efforts.
To my mind, the goal of dice-influencing is to make some money.
~If you have an advantage over the house, you WANT your positively-advantaged bets to be decided as often as possible.
~The rapidity at which your advantaged bets are ultimately decided; the faster your bankroll will grow.
~The more money you have on a given pos-ex wager; the more profit you will make over a reasonable number of trials.
Let’s see why that is.
Dollars-Ventured vs. Dollars-Gained
The astute dice-influencer has to carefully consider the difference between dollars-exposed-to-a-7-Out versus dollars-winnable-with-one-paying-hit.
~When you wager $22-Inside, that entire wagered amount is exposed to a 7-Out, but it only offers a $7 payout in return for one winning hit.
~In other words, $22-Inside covers 50% of all possible outcomes, but only rewards that exposure with a 31.8% per-hit return-on-investment (R.O.I.).
~On the other hand, a $5 Field-bet offers a better rate-of-return with a lower exposure-rate by paying an average of $5.94/per-hit on a ‘triple-pay 12’ $5 wager (118% per-hit R.O.I.), and an average of $5.63/per-hit on a ‘double-pay 12’ $5 wager (113% per-hit R.O.I.) all the while covering a little over 44% of all possible outcomes.
Most importantly though; when you consider the fact that the Field is a one-roll “every outcome is a bet-decision” wager…that is an incredibly GOOD thing for a dice-influencer (even though it continues to be a BAD thing for the random-roller).
~When you have a validated edge over a given bet, the advantage-player WANTS as many bet-decisions as possible. That is how he makes his money.
~If a bet is just idly sitting on the layout, neither winning nor losing with each subsequent toss; then your money is asleep. With each subsequent roll that does not produce a decision, your money may not be losing…but neither is it producing any winners, or is it rewarding the edge you have over the house.
Many naïve dice-influencers think that if one of their active-but-non-win-or-lose-decided bets isn’t doing anything Neither winning nor losing); then they are doing okay.
Well that may seem like it’s the case, but for every non-decision that a bet is subject to (that means a roll-outcome that neither produces a winning-payout nor a bet-clearing loss); means that the skilled-shooter’s edge-per-roll over that particular wager is diluted more and more with each non-decision toss-result.
The higher the average number of rolls it takes for a bet to be resolved one way or the other; the slower your shooting-edge manifests itself in the form of toss after toss per-roll profit. Not surprisingly, that’s where the Table-Adaptive Field-Harvest shines the brightest.
If you have an edge over the house, you want your money to be working and you want to get the maximum number of DECISIONS on your positive-expectation wagers as FREQUENTLY as possible.
Just as the casino wants gamblers to be exposed to as many negative-expectation bet-decisions per hour as possible (because that is how the house makes its money off of its negative EV edge); so too, the savvy advantage-play dice-influencer wants his wagers to be exposed to as many positive-expectation bet-decisions per hour...because that is how he makes money off of his positive EV edge over the house.
Again, bet-DECISIONS are how you make money off of your positive-EV wagers.
The Quicker a Bet’s Decision-Rate, the Faster Your Shooting-Skill Leverages and Remunerates Your Advantage...and the Sooner Your Bankroll Doubles.
~A savvy advantage-player has to look at not only how a positive-expectation bet is decided, but also how often an advantaged bet is decided.
~If he is making positive-expectation wagers; then he wants his bets to be subjected to as many bet-decisions as possible in as short of a time as possible...and the Field-Harvest approach does just that.
The whole idea behind dice-influencing is to wager when you HAVE the edge…and to lay off the bets when you DON’T.
If you have a validated edge over a given wager…you should be taking advantage of it as often as possible.
My Table-Adaptive Field-Harvest simply lets you exploit your positive-expectation edge over the casino in a low-risk/high-reward manner on a high-frequency every-roll-is-a-decision basis.
The more positive-edge bets you can make and the more frequently you can have them decided…the more money you make.
For random-rollers, the more decisions-per-hand or decisions-per-hour their bets are subjected to in a negative-expectation game; the sooner the house will exact and extract its expected edge.
That's how the casino earns its money.
Equally, as a skilled-shooter, if you don’t have an edge over the Field-bet, then you have no business betting on it.
However, for the advantage-play dice-influencer who does have a compelling edge over the Field-bet; and the more positive-expectation decisions he can subject those geared-to-advantage wagers to; the sooner and greater his expected profit will be.
The Field-Harvest turns every point-cycle roll into a bet-decision. Some of them will lose, but more of them will win; and that's how an astute A-P D-I earns his money.
~The more bet-decisions a random-roller's money is exposed to in a negative-expectation game; the worse his chances of winning.
~Equally, the more bet-decisions a dice-influencer's advantaged-bets are exposed to in a positive-expectation game; the better his chances of winning.
The astute dice-influencer has to carefully consider the difference between dollars-exposed-to-a-7-Out versus dollars-winnable-per-paying-hit.
~By increasing the decision-rate at which his de-randomized advantaged-bets are decided upon; the Field-Harvest, in effect, can supercharge an advantage-players money-making earn-rate.
~The quicker a bet’s decision-rate, the faster your shooting-skill can leverage and remunerate your advantage.
~If you have an edge over the house, you want your money to be working as efficiently and effectively as possible. The best way to do that is to get the maximum number of DECISIONS on your positive-expectation wagers as FREQUENTLY as possible.
The rapidity at which your advantaged bets are ultimately decided; the faster you'll make money. To my mind, the Field-Harvest fits that prerequisite to a tee.
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
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