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Stretching Your Current Bet-Comfort to Reflect Your True Edge

A proper bankroll is the life-blood of an advantage-players existence.

A bankroll is there to be used. It is not something to be preserved and untouched.

It is there to be put to work, not to be put on the shelf as a mantle-piece that you stand back and admire.

If your money isn’t working; then it’s sleeping…and sleeping money cannot generate a return on investment…simply because it isn’t being invested…it’s snoring its brains out under your mattress.

That’s not what it’s there for.

How You Look at Your Bankroll Largely Determines How Smart Your Investments Will Be
If you are afraid to invest your money in a compelling manner; then you aren't giving it a chance to grow.

If you spread it too thinly over too many numbers, hoping that frequent hits will make up for the lack of commitment to your strongest-edged bets; then you are simply fooling yourself... short-changing your opportunities...and insulting your own intelligence.

When you have an advantage over the house; then you have to bet that advantage in a convincing and compelling manner…otherwise it is a lost opportunity.

If your betting is weak; then you cannot possibly expect your earnings to be strong. If you are trying to preserve your bankroll like some untouched vestal virgin; then it’s not going to be turning any tricks or returning any loot.

Advantage-play is all about making wise investment decisions.

You have to put your money to work, and that means you have to invest it where you have the most compelling advantage over the house.

It’s not there to be gambled; it’s there to be invested.

It's also not there to be spread so thinly that the strong-edged bets can't adequately compensate for the lower-edged or no-edge bets that you make.

~Make good, strong investments and you get good, strong returns.

~Make poor, weak investments and you get poor, weak returns…if any at all.

If you are in a casino; then the bet-decisions you make for your D-I skills had better be of investment-grade quality; otherwise you are just gambling.

Dice-influencing is not about gambling. It’s about putting your money on advantaged wagers and garnering a return on your investment.

As a dice-influencer you will experience bankroll draw-downs, but you will also get to enjoy profit-spikes. Your bankroll will experience dips and peaks; that’s just the nature of the volatility that accompanies A-P dice-influencing. The idea is to use your bankroll as a tool for your advantage-play abilities.

If you run for cover at the first sign of a bankroll draw-down; then you are also going to be gun-shy about increasing your wagers at a point when and where they will do the most good.

If you have a validated skill that is convincingly backed by in-casino roll-stats; then your main concern…your main ‘job’ if you will…is to get enough money on the layout on the bets where you have the strongest edge as soon as possible.

While the loss-tolerance for the specific casino you are currently playing at is a consideration that can’t be ignored; most players are more concerned about preserving their bankroll instead of making it work as hard for them as possible...and they never, ever even get within sniffing distance of that casino's loss-tolerance threshold.

Making your edge work hard for you means putting the lion’s share of your per-hand 7-exposure money on only your strongest-edged bets.

When you convert your cash into casino chips; the only instructions you should give those checks, is to “Go out there and bring back as many of your multi-colored friends as possible!

Taking Stock of How You are Currently Investing
I want you to take a look at the total amount of 7-exposure money you currently spread on the layout at the start of your own hand.

How much is that?

If you are waiting for that amount to turn itself into something bigger before you raise the starting value of your bets; then chances are, most of your self-thrown hands will be near the break-even point.

Sure some hands will produce a nice win while others will show a net-loss; but overall, if you are waiting for your initial investment (the money that you first wager on the layout at the beginning of your hand) to fully pay for itself and show a little net profit before you are willing to invest more (by pressing your wagers)…then you are probably still in the frustrating purgatory-like break-even category.

I am not saying that you should press your bets with every hit right from the get-go; rather, I am saying that you have to start with more money on fewer selected wagers.

Your shooting may have an advantage over the house; but your betting does not…hence the persistent back-and-forth win-some/lose-some standoff between the casinos bankroll or your own.

Trading dollars back and forth with the casino is not what A-P dice-influencing is all about. Instead, when your money is invested in the bets where it will do the most good and return the highest dividend; your profits will outstrip your losses…and THAT is what advantage-play craps is all about.

If  Your Current Bankroll Isn’t Big Enough
Admittedly, most craps players have traditionally sought out the cheapest tables on which to weave their magic. The lower the bet-minimum, the more bet-making flexibility it offers them. Unfortunately though, cheap tables also mean almost unlimited crowds, even during the wee hours of the night.

How often have you looked across from your current $5 or $10 table and enviously eyed a low-population $15, $25, or $50 table and thought about playing there?

If your skill warrants it; then your bankroll is going to have to justify it.

If you are playing with an insufficient bankroll; then frankly you shouldn’t be in a casino at all. Playing with scared money almost guarantees that you’ll never get ahead in the game on a net-basis. Making bets without the financial wherewithall to properly back them up is not just silly and ill-advised; it almost ensures bankroll-suicide.

For most players though, it’s not really a matter of insufficient bankroll; but more a matter of spreading their money too thinly on too many bets.

Too little money on too many wagers not only requires more paying hits for you to break-even; but it also means that any subsequent hits after reaching that break-even milestone do not have the financial impact that they would if your money was more tightly focused on your strongest-edged wagers.

Wanting as many hits as possible is one thing; but trading profitability for a lower-paying higher-frequency hit-rate does not make any economic sense. It’s like smashing a bag of potato chips into micro-fine pieces and saying, “Wow, look at how many chips I have now…what a genius I am”.

Having too many bets in action means that a paying-hit on one leaves your other covered bets unrequited and it means a lower overall return-on-investment.

You have to leverage the better-than-even-money payout that PL w/Odds and Place-bets pay, but in a way where your money will do the most good by returning the highest rate of return not only on the bet itself, but also on the total amount of 7-exposure money you have invested on the layout at any given time.

Your average hand is only going to last so long. A real advantage-player sets up his wagers in such a way that he’ll be in net-profit territory with the fewest number of hits…and he’ll continue collecting from those until the end of his hand…no matter how long or short it lasts.

If you’ve taken the time and effort to advance your dice-influencing skills; then they deserve to be properly backed with a bankroll that reflects your true commitment to the game. If that means taking time off from your casino trips in order to build your bankroll into something that has utility and presence; then do so.

The tables are there 24/7/365. Don’t be impatient and foolish.

Build your bankroll so your skill has a proper chance to show its true potential.

Under-betting your skill will almost always lead to losses simply because you aren’t betting enough when your shooting is on, and so it can’t make up for the times when your shooting is off. To make matters worse, your overall winnings are being dragged down and diluted by having money that should be on higher-advantage wagers, being wasted on lower-advantaged ones.

Re-deploy Your Assets
The first thing that most players in our D-I community have to get used to is using FULL-Odds behind their Passline bet.

If there is one thing that will make a HUGE difference in the amount of money you can collect off of your current skill; it is from using FULL-Odds.

After you get used to using FULL-Odds at all times on your own hands, you should re-deploy some of your Place-bet assets that you normally spread across multiple box-numbers, onto fewer choices.

For example:

~If your normal comfort-level is starting with $44-Inside; how about using $24 each on the 6 and 8 if those two numbers are your current strongest edge bets.

~If you are currently comfortable spreading something like $78 or $81-Across; how about using $88-Inside instead if the 5, 6, 8, and 9 are your top four strongest edge bets.

The fewer advantaged-numbers you spread your money on; the higher your NET return-on-investment will be.

The greater the number of wagers you spread your money on; the lower your NET return-on-investment will be.

It’s simple economics:

Think of your bets as investments:

Bond A offers a low-risk high-return 18% dividend.

Bond B offers a low-risk, high-return 14% dividend.

Bond C offers a low-risk high-return 12% dividend.

Bond D offers a low-risk medium-return 8% dividend.

Bond E offers a medium-risk moderate-return 5% dividend.

Bond F offers a higher-risk low-return 3% dividend.

Where should the lion's share of your money be invested?
Sure you could put some of it into Bond E and maybe even a little bit into Bond F; but you'd be taking food off of your family's plate for very little practical reason.

Let’s take another look at one of the above examples:

You are currently comfortable spreading something like $78 or $81-Across; so to cut down on the profit-diluting spread-factor of distributing your money too thinly over too many numbers, you decide to go with $88-Inside instead.

That's a good start, but I only want you consider that as the first step in properly re-deploying your assets.

If the 5, 6, 8, and 9 are your top four strongest edge bets; then I want you to next consider dropping one of those numbers from your betting-regimen and re-distributing what you would normally wager on that number across the three remaining ones.

Now obviously you have to contend with the initial frustration that comes from seeing one or more of your normally covered numbers hit without generating a payout; but the salvation comes from collecting more money when your currently covered numbers do hit.

It’s a matter of being mature about the whole thing and not letting the gambler side of your mentality think about what you could be winning if only you had a bet on every possible number on the layout.

As an advantage player that isn’t really practical. Instead, you have to invest your money where it will do the most good. If you don’t have the patience to see some non-paying rolls go by; then you may have a problem that goes quite a bit beyond simple ‘impatience’.

Being mature about it means that you have to look at the enhanced payout you receive when your best-edged bets do win, as well as at the increased overall return you get by having your money wagered on the smartest highest-advantage investments.

Being an advantage-player does not mean collecting on every roll of the dice. Rather, it means taking maximum advantage of the edge you have over the house…and that means putting the most money you can on your strongest edged bets.

Advantage-play craps is NOT about gambling. It is about taking most of the ‘gambleOUT of gambling. Good investments require patience, perseverance, and commitment. Your reward comes in the form of higher returns on your investment.

That means that you may have to trade in your desire of frequent hits in order to get a better return on not only the same amount of money you are currently putting out on the table…but it also means stretching your current bet-comfort level relative to the amount that your overall bankroll can afford.

Don’t Let Superstition Hold You Back
How often have you stayed away from what everyone tells you is a 'cold' table?

How often have you walked up to a dead game where the dealers are standing there doing nothing and they advise you that the table is freezing cold and that you should move over to the more crowded ‘warm’ table across the way?

If you let superstitions hold you back from seizing a golden opportunity to shoot the dice without the hassle of having other players at the table; then you are also letting superstition hold back your advantage-play earnings.

Sure, consulting the entrails of dead chickens may be the way that crazy Uncle Lester determines which way to bet and which table to play at; but as an advantage-player, you have to leave the voodoo at home and instead go with the skills that you have developed.

Cold tables are avoided by superstitious gamblers…and profitably exploited by advantage dice-influencers.

Seize the opportunity and seize the profit…and don’t be surprised at how quickly that ‘cold’ tables fills up as soon as those other players hear the stickman call out a few PL-winners from your solo play.

I personally toke the dealers to keep the stick-call win-announcements to the barely-audible level. It maintains the impression to others within earshot that the dice are still as cold as ice cubes.

If you have to play into other people's superstitions to keep the table population low; then so be it.

Stretch Your Current Bet-Comfort Level
Even though we know that most $25 tables are often much less crowded than the $5, $10, and $15 variety, and even though skilled dice-influencers know they’d get the dice in their hands more frequently at the less crowded tables, and even though they know that they’d have to suffer through far fewer random-rollers in between each of their own turns…most players are very reluctant to step up to a more expensive bet-minimum table despite the fact that they also know they have a profitably-exploitable edge over the house.

When you know all of those things, you have to break out of the self-imposed chains that are holding back your profit and reducing the number of times you get to shoot the dice.

You simply have to increase the amount that you bet when you have the dice, and you have to do everything you can to increase the numbers of times the dice come to you within a given time-frame.

While you can often tailor your casino visits to coincide with the slowest times of the day or night, it also usually means that there are fewer tables to choose from. It also means that you’ll often have a full table of random-rollers to deal with.

Instead, try playing when there is a wider variety of tables open, and a greater number of shooting positions to choose from especially at the higher-denomination tables. Doing so means more frequent shooting opportunities for you…and a greater chance that you’ll be able to turn your skill into tangible profit.

When you step up to a $25 or $50 table, all of the frivolous bets that you’d normally make at a cheaper table somehow seem less important. When you raise the cost of doing business, you’ll find yourself treating your money with a greater amount of respect than you normally do. That is a good thing.

Playing at a high-denom table makes you focus your wagers on only the best-grade investments you can make. That means backing your Passline bet with Odds and wagering on only your top two or three Place-bets.

By selecting only the highest-quality bets that are likely to return the most money; you are sharpening your betting to a point where you are less likely to spread it across too many numbers. Forcing yourself to make wise investments is one way to raise your bet-value comfort-level…and that too is a good thing.

The more often you do that; the more comfortable you will become in betting on only your strongest-edged bets with bet-values that far exceed anything you would have even considered in the past…and the more net-profit your bet-investments will be returning.

Frankly, stretching your bet-comfort level to reflect your true edge is not only a VERY good thing…it’s also a very profitable thing.

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor

Copyright © 2007-2008

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on August 8, 2008 6:15 PM.

The previous post in this blog was DiceTool…Unlock Your Current Potential Part 3.

The next post in this blog is Handling Payout Disputes.

Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

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