"If one or more of your most dominant point-cycle Signature Numbers are "Trash" (2, 3, 11, or 12); should you ignore them completely…or make an occasional bet on them when it seems they might occur in clumps…or do you treat them like any other advantage-play opportunity, albeit a little more carefully because of their prop-pay volatility."
Are Advantage-Play Prop-bets an Oxymoron?
As a dice-influencer, our job is pretty simple:
~Develop a sustainable edge over the casino by de-randomizing the dice to a point where the house-edge on certain bets is negated and turned into a positive-expectation situation for the player.
~Substantiate that edge through a large enough roll-stat sampling that is big enough to be statistically significant and current enough to be realistic as to your right-here/right-now skill-set.
~Authenticate those findings through in-casino sessions that confirm where your strongest-edge bets are, and validate the profitable sustainability of those wagers.
~Focus the largest portion of your per-hand exposure onto those bets where you have the highest edge, while (if you choose) reserving the smallest portion of your per-hand exposure for those bets where you have the smallest (but still pos-ex) advantage.
~Bet your advantaged-wagers in proportion to your bankroll (by way of a fractional Kelly Criterion), while using at least a portion of your profits to fuel its overall growth.
So is there room in all of that for any “advantage-play prop-bets”, or are A-P Props an oxymoron created by us to rationalize much of our high-risk, low-advantage gambling?
In other words, are prop-bets on our most dominant point-cycle trash-numbers the very antithesis of what low-risk advantage-play is all about?
As I mentioned in Part One; if you have a validated edge over any prop-bets; then you can have a much higher advantage over the lower-risk non-prop box-numbers…and in doing so, you can earn much more profit from each dollar earned DESPITE the high-ratio payouts offered by the props.
How can that be?
Well, the box-numbers have a relatively low house-edge that has to be overcome, while the prop-bets have a high house-edge that has to be surmounted.
When you add in the one-roll win-or-lose decision that each prop-bet is burdened with; you end up with a situation where the same skilled shooter is usually making around 750% less off of his A-P props that he could be by putting the same money in the same ratio on his higher-advantaged box-numbers.
Let’s find out why:
~Let’s say you have a 5% edge over the Place-bet 6 and 8. The house-edge on that wager is 1.5%, so your advantage equates to having bettered the HA by 333%. This wager pays out at 7:6 or $1.17 for every $1 that is wagered and won.
~Let’s also say that you have a 2% edge over the Ace-Deuce 3. The house-edge on that wager is 11.11%, so your advantage equates to having bettered the HA by 18%. This wager pays out at 15:1 or $15.00 for every $1 that is wagered and won.
At first blush, the high payout offered by prop-betting the Trey seems to trump the lackluster advantage it has over the house-edge that this bet normally carries.
It’s when you scratch a little deeper that you discover that all is not what it appears to be, and the golden opportunity offered even by such a high payout-ratio prop, dims substantially when compared to what would happen if you handled your money the same way when you bet on an advantaged box-number.
For example, if you triple parlay an Acey-Deucy, that makes for exciting M-board headlines; but how often do you do the same triple parlay on box-numbers where you have an 18.5-times HIGHER advantage?
Now obviously I am NOT advocating parlaying ANY bet; I am simply illustrating how players who play with an advantage often UNDER-bet their most advantaged wagers, while simultaneously OVER-betting their marginally-edged ones.
When you add in the fact that prop-bets are won or lost with each roll of the dice, while box-numbers are only decided either when repeated or the hand ends; you have a situation where box-numbers not only survive an average of 3.5-times longer than a prop-bet; but their apparent low-ratio payout is collected around 250% more often.
Why It Is So Easy To Be Blinded by Point-Cycle Props
It is very easy for an aspiring Precision-Shooter to be blinded by the prospect of huge riches that can be made off of Prop and Hop bets.
When dice-influencers read or hear about fairly big wins that others players are making off of quintuple parlayed Horn bets, or back-to-back-to-back-to-back Hopping 9’s; they forget that the basis of advantage-play craps is firmly anchored in a fairly narrow band of superiority over the house.
That is, they go in for the kill on some of the center-of-the-table Hops and Props by OVER-betting the small edge that they’ve managed to develop; yet they UNDER-bet their strongest-edge box-numbers to a degree that is truly astonishing.
I’m not sure if it’s because Place-bets no longer provide enough thunder, lightning, and excitement as the high-paying center bets do, or whether their focus is distracted by the pursuit of “quick and easy money” and the ego-gratification that goes along with being able to talk about the time back in 1962 when you hit 38 Horn-numbers in a row.
One thing I am sure of is that if you have an edge over any of the point-cycle trash numbers (2, 3, 11, and 12); then you have an even bigger edge over one or more of the box-numbers.
So if you are really and truly looking to get the most bang for your buck and being able to wring the maximum profit-potential out of every toss; then putting your money on your highest-edged, best-advantaged bets is ALWAYS the right thing for you…and your bankroll.
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
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