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WOTCO---Working On The Come-Out

If a dice-influencer has the ability to sway and affect the outcome of the dice in a de-randomized way; then the easiest bets over which to make a profit, are the ones with the lowest house-edge.

The concept of Working On The Come-Out (WOTCO) is a simple one.

~Instead of using a separate dice-set for the Come-Out cycle, the skilled shooter uses the same dice-set for both the point-cycle as well as the come-out.

~He wagers his top two or three box-numbers as Place-bets during the Come-Out cycle with the intent on hitting one of them and collecting a pre-Point-Cycle profit while concurrently establishing one of his top-performing box-numbers as the PL-Point.

The reasoning is quite simple.

The house-edge on Place-bets is much lower than the house edge on the Prop-bets that are favored during the come-out cycle; and therefore, the Place-bet house-edge is not only easier to overcome, but it is more likely that the dice-influencer will be able to bag a few additional hits on his Place-bet action than he would if prop-betting the high-vig Horn, World, C&E, and Any Red wagers.

In effect, the difference in the house-edge that has to be overcome for each set of bets, means that the skilled shooter is able to put more PROFIT into his pocket more OFTEN when using Place-bets instead of Prop-bets.

If that weren’t the case; then you’d see skilled shooters focusing almost exclusively on Prop-bets only, and foresaking Place-bets entirely.

Taking that one step further, we see that if you use the same dice-set for the come-out cycle as you do for the Point-cycle; then you can make your usual Place-bets during the come-out cycle and “work” them…and have a high-percentage chance of actually collecting from them as you set the Passline-Point.

The benefit here is that you not only start out the Point-cycle with more of a chance of a pre-Point profit than you would with a Prop-bet; but you also establish a PL-Point that is obviously more amenable to your throw-characteristic tossing-style and that of your chosen point-cycle dice-set.

In other words, you are not only more likely to collect from one of your top two or three point-cycle set Signature Numbers in establishing it as the PL-Point; but in doing so, you are more likely to be able to throw a PL-Point repeating winner because it is one of your top two or three set-specific Signature-Numbers.

To understand this concept a little better, we have to determine…




How Does WOTCO Affect Hand-Duration?

 

Sevens
-to-
Rolls
Ratio

SRR
6.0

SRR
6.5

SRR
7.0

SRR
7.5

SRR
8.0

SRR
9.0

Expected
7's per 36
Rolls

6.00

5.54

5.14

4.80

4.50

4.00

Percentage
of
Sevens

16.67%

15.38%

14.27%

13.33%

12.50%

11.11%

Average
# of Rolls
to Resolve
PL-Point

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.6

5.0

5.8

Average
WOTCO
Hand-Duration
(including C-O winners and losers, plus any multiple Point-repeaters and the final hand-ending 7-Out)

8.3

9.0

9.6

10.2

10.8

12.0




So even though it may take a little longer to resolve a PL-Point (because the 7 is significantly less dominant); that win:lose resolution is much more likely to be decided in your favor than it would be for a random-roller.

In that same vein, it is also more likely that you will throw more PL-Point repeaters during your de-randomized hand than a random-roller will during his randomly-thrown hand.


How Many Multiple PL
-Point Repeaters are You Likely to Throw?
The short answer is...it depends.

The long answer is a tad more difficult because, to be accurate, it would be based on each particular shooters Signature Numbers and whether or not he was changing his point-cycle dice-set in order to snipe out a specific PL-Point.

To understand that better however, we can use some generalities to give us a good idea of how SRR-rates affect not only what the average number of rolls it takes to resolve a PL-Point, but also what the average length of a roll would be if the shooter used the SAME dice-set for both the come-out cycle as well as the point-cycle (such as a WOTCO---WorkingOnTheComeOut--- bettor might do).


As always, to get a better understanding of this question, we first have to take a look at how WOTCO will behave in the hands of a random-roller, and determine how that affects his wagers:

If a random-roller is tossing the dice:

~There is a 16.67% (1-in-6) chance that the first roll after the PL-Point has been established will be a 7-Out.

~If the PL-Point is a 4 or 10; there is an 8.33% (1-in-12) chance that he'll throw a Point-repeater on the very next toss.

~If the PL-Point is a 5 or 9; there is an 11.11% (1-in-9) chance that he'll throw a Point-repeater on the very next toss.

~If the PL-Point is a 6 or 8; there is a 13.88% (1-in-7.2) chance that he'll throw a Point-repeater on the very next toss.

~A randomly-thrown 7-out will show up twice as often (2:1) than a PL-Point of 4 or 10.

~A randomly-thrown 7-out will show up one and one-half times as often (3:2) than a PL-Point of 5 or 9.

~A randomly-thrown 7-out will show up one point two times as often (6:5) than a PL-Point of 6 or 8.


As our dice-influencing skills improve, it is inevitable that we eventually ask ourselves how much more frequently we are likely to throw multiple PL-Point repeaters during the same hand than a random-roller will.

I have the answer.

answer

Likelihood
of
Multiple PL -Point
Repeaters
(in the same hand)

SSR
6.0

(random)

SSR
6.5

SRR
7.0

SRR
7.5

SRR
8.0

SRR
9.0

1
PL-Point Repeater

40.60%

43.20%

45.04%

46.98%

47.71%

52.11%

2
PL-Point Repeaters

16.48%

18.66%

20.29%

22.07%

22.76%

27.15%

3
PL-Point Repeaters

6.69%

8.06%

9.14%

10.37%

10.86%

14.15%

4
PL-Point Repeaters

2.72%

3.48%

4.12%

4.87%

5.18%

7.37%

5
PL-Point Repeaters

1.10%

1.50%

1.85%

2.29%

2.47%

3.84%

6
PL-Point Repeaters

0.45%

0.65%

0.83%

1.08%

1.18%

2.00%




If you want to see how likely you are to throw multiple PL-Point repeaters out of a certain number of tries; I also have the answer to that:

 

that

Ratio of
PL-Point Repeaters
vs.
Non-Point Repeaters
(in the same hand)

SSR
6.0

(random)

SSR
6.5

SRR
7.0

SRR
7.5

SRR
8.0

SRR
9.0

1
PL-Point
Repeater

1/1.5

1/1.3

1/1.2

1/1.13

1/1.10

1/0.92

2
PL-Point Repeaters

1/5

1/4.3

1/3.9

1/3.5

1/3.4

1/2.7

3
PL-Point Repeaters

1/14

1/11.4

1/9.9

1/8.6

1/8.2

1/6.1

4
PL-Point Repeaters

1/36

1/28

1/23.3

1/19.5

1/18.3

1/12.6

5
PL-Point Repeaters

1/90

1/66

1/53

1/43

1/39

1/25

6
PL-Point Repeaters

1/221

1/153

1/119

1/92

1/84

1/49

 

 

 

WOTCO Summary
As I said at the top, Working on The Come-Out is not a new and novel concept. Instead it is one of those ideas that don’t work that well on random-rollers (and remains a neg-ex play if you do); but can work really well as a pos-ex play on your own skilled shooting.

WOTCO often gives the dice-influencer a kick-start profit before the PL-Point is even established, while subsequently likely establishing one of that same shooter's top two or three dice-specific Signature-Numbers as the point.

Viewed in that light, Working on The Come-Out not only makes a lot of sense, but it can make a lot of profit too.


As Always,

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor

Copyright © 2007-2008

 

 

 

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on August 17, 2008 7:21 PM.

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