Mad Professor's Not-So-Random-Thought for Thursday, 7 August, 2008
(Reprinted from our Message-Board)
How many times have you been at the table when your own shooting has been pretty decent, but because of the crowded conditions, it seems to take forever for the dice to cycle back around to you for another turn?
And how often has that one lap around the table cost you all the money you made off your own good shooting … plus a little more?
On average, how often do random-roller losses more than offset any money your own good D-I shooting is able to produce?
Imagine what would happen if most of the money that you bet and lost on random-rollers could be refunded and then redistributed over your top two or three best-advantage wagers each time that you shoot.
For many skilled-shooters, that would add up to some fairly decent-sized random-bet refunds…and result in some fairly decent-sized advantaged-bet profits from those now-re-applied bets.
Imagine doing that over a reasonable number of sessions.
If you have even a modicum of influence over the dice, and frankly anything over SRR-6.5 is quite adequate to make decent money off of this game if you bet correctly; then I think you’d see your D-I profits skyrocket…while your random-roller losses plummet precipitously.
Now let’s look at that silly refund idea from a much more practical angle.
Imagine if you could make it so that there were fewer random-rollers at your table, and the dice would therefore cycle back around to your shooting-position much, much faster.
Imagine if there was a way to minimize your R-R neg-ex exposure while maximizing your own pos-ex D-I exposure on a lap-after-lap-after-lap basis.
Imagine being able to do that at many of the casinos you currently visit.
Imagine being able to get on low-population tables much more frequently…and being able to keep them sparsely-peopled even when you get your toss perfectly dialed-in and firing on all cylinders.
Imagine That Being a Reality
To make most of that a steadily achievable reality, the solution is pretty simple:
Play at higher bet-minimum tables.
Now I know we’ve been down this road before, and I know we’ve discussed it to near-death; but it seems that many skilled players just don’t get it.
If you bet on fewer random-rollers (since there are fewer of them to deal with at the higher-denomination tables), and you take most of the money that you would normally spend on R-R’s at the cheaper-but-crowded, lower bet-min tables, and you re-deploy it onto your own advantaged-bets at a high-minimum table; your shooting will produce more net-revenue…and since there is less temptation to bet on R-R’s at these elevated bet-levels; you’ll have even more net-profit to show for all of your efforts.
The trees that landscape a casino’s exterior may be lush and green, but they still don’t grow money.
At a casino craps table, the only way to reliably grow your money, is to focus the overwhelming majority of your betting on de-randomized outcomes.
If a bet doesn’t have a verifiable edge; then your money shouldn’t be on it.
If you have an advantage over multiple box-numbers; then it’s usually best to narrow your betting-focus down to just your top two box-numbers.
Less multi-number edge-dilution means more profit much sooner.
If you have to have a bet on the previous random-roller in order to get the dice when it’s your turn; then a table-minimum bet is all that it takes.
To consistently get ahead in this game, the over-riding mass of your betting-weight has to be placed solely on the very few wagers where it will do you and your bankroll the most good.
Again, less random-bets and more highly-focused advantage-bets means more net-profit and quicker bankroll growth.
Another upside to playing at a higher-denom table is that when playing solo or with a couple of other players; you’ll rarely see the table instantly fill up as soon as someone starts throwing a ‘hot’ hand.
To put that into perspective, ask yourself how reluctant you have been to leave your own cold-as-ice $10 table even though the dice at an adjoining sparsely-populated $25 table seem to be on fire.
That reluctance is even more pronounced when the bet-minimum disparity is wider, for example, most $5 players would never consider going to a $25 table let alone a $50 one. The same holds true even for players at a $15 table not willing to go to a $50 table even though their own typical spread-action at the $15 one may be in the $100 to $150 range.
If you reduce your random exposure to the bare minimum, and you re-concentrate the spread of your own current action to just your top two or three numbers including the PL-Point w/Odds; then a move to a higher snack-bracket table is not only justified, it makes perfect sense in terms of better capitalizing on your current D-I skill-set.
If you hate constantly having to deal with finding an empty table to play on…only to have a group of new players show up out of nowhere just moments after you buy-in; then choose a table that few others are willing to play at.
High-denomination tables usually fill that bill.
You’ll not only be more likely to find your shooting-groove faster; but with the dice cycling back around to you with a minimal number of R-R interlopers; you’ll be able to stay in the shooting-groove much, much longer.
If you’re the kind of player that thinks he can’t afford to play at the big-buck tables, yet you make all kinds of widely-spread random-bet action as the dice cycle around at the cheaper tables; then you are only fooling yourself…and stunting your bankroll’s growth.
Take Your Shooting-Skill to the Next Level, and Take Your Betting-Skill One Step Further
At casinos where they don't 'grandfather' you in when the table-minimum is raised; I find it quite effective to have the Pit-Manager increase the table-min by at least two values (ie, $10 to $25 instead of $10 to $15, or $15 to $50 instead of $15 to $25, etc.). This creates many more shooting opportunities as fewer players tend to stick around and play at the higher value than if the table-min was only raised by one gradation.
Further, I also find it effective to call ahead to the dice-pit and ask the pit-clerk or the TGS, how many tables are open and how many players are at each table.
You can then ask for the Pit Manager and have him raise the bet-min limit on one of the tables in time for your arrival.
You can also have him reserve your favorite spot at that table, as long as you remember that 'our' table-positions are the complete opposite to how 'they' refer to them. For example if you want to shoot from SL-1, you have to ask him to put a reserved sign or boxman's-lammer on R-1 (they don't use the "S" designation and their right-side is your left-side and vice versa).
Your Telegraph is Ringing, and the Message is Clear
~If you take most of your money off of random-rollers and put it on your own advantaged bets, you are going to win much more than you lose.
~If you take even more of your money off of random-rollers by moving to low-population higher-denomination tables, and you put the lion’s share of your betting-dollars on your top two or three best-advantaged box-numbers; then you are going to win even more.
~The further you reduce the random-roller population at your table, the fewer negative-expectation bets you’ll have to make.
~The fewer random-rollers there are to deal with, the less likely you are to cave in to random-betting temptations.
To consistently get ahead in this game, the over-riding mass of your betting-weight has to be placed on the very few wagers where it will do you and your bankroll the most good.
Fewer random-bets and more highly-focused advantage-bets means more net-profit and quicker bankroll growth.
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2008