The Dice Institute

For example, let’s say that, on average, you bet around $25 on each R-R. That amount could be made up from wagering $12 each on the 6 and 8, or $22-Inside, or $5 on the Passline backed with an average of $20 in Odds in a 3x/4x/5x-odds house, or maybe even a combination of a $4 Horn and a nickel each ($5) on the Hardways.

Now obviously I understand that sometimes you’ll bet less or not at all on the randies, and sometimes you’ll bet more if a lucky chucker gets on a hot roll; but for this exercise let’s say that you bet an average of around $25 on each random-roller.

If I could show you a way that you would end up only being down about one average $25 R-R bet for every five laps around the table (that’s about 50 to 75 random-rollers in total); would you be interested?

That is, if you could bet the exact same amount of money on random-rollers that you do right now, but only lose an average of one of those R-R bets for every five laps around the table, would you do it?




The Challenge


The next time you are at the casino I want you to keep track of the number of PL wins and losses thrown by random-rollers.

Don't be selective, count them all.

When a random-roller tosses a Come-Out 7 or 11 you count each one as a winner; and when he tosses a C-O 2, 3, or 12, you count that as a loser.

You can keep track with a simple plus/minus count like a BJ card-counter would. A PL-win is a +1 and a PL-loss is a –1.

Similarly, I want you keep track of their PL-Point wins and losses the same way. So when a random-roller throws five PL-Point winners in a row, that hand was a +5. Whenever they 7-Out you simply subtract –1.

I want you to keep a running score for at least three laps around the table (though five laps would be much more preferable for a reasonable sample size).

If you can’t hold an accurate R-R win/loss count in your head, then keep track with chips. For example, you could start with 10 white chips, and add one chip when an R-R scores a PL-win and subtract one when he tosses a PL-loser.

Remember that we are treating Come-Out wins the same as Point-cycle wins, so if he tosses three C-O winners and two PL-Point repeaters, you’d be adding five chips before having to subtract one chip when he finally 7’s-Out.

We treat Come-out losses the same as Point-cycle losses too; so if a random-roller tosses two C-O losers and then 7’s-Out before repeating the PL-Point; you’d be subtracting a total of three chips from your count-stack.

DO NOT include any skilled dice-influencers in the plus/minus counting. We are only talking about tracking random-rollers.

At the end of three laps (though like I said, five laps is much more representative of what will happen) around a semi-crowded table; you simply count the chips you have left in your count-stack. Remember that you started with ten chips. So if you end up with more than ten chips, the randies threw more PL-winners than losers. More likely though, you’ll end up with fewer than the ten chips that you started your count-stack with.

The Promise

Generally speaking, after three to five laps around the table, your count-stack will be somewhere around either +1 or –1 of your starting value.

So how does that relate to how you should bet in a negative-expectation game and how you can possibly wager the same amount of money on the randies that you do now, but lose much less than you do now?

Well, if you were to make simple always-the-same-value Passline wagers; you would, when averaged over five laps around the table, generally end up around one average-bet down.

So for example, if you bet $25 on each and every random-roller…collecting Come-Out wins when they pay and replacing them when they lose…collecting PL-Point wins when they pay and replacing them for the next R-R when this shooter 7’s-Out; after five laps (that’s about 60 or so random-rollers), you’ll generally end up down an average of just ONE $25 R-R bet.

Can you say that for your current random-roller betting-methods?

Regardless of how you bet on random-rollers now; if you take the HONEST average of your current R-R wagers and use that same amount strictly on the Passline when they are shooting; your current overall average R-R losses will drop like a rock.

Don’t take my word for it.

But first ask yourself if you are really serious about losing less on random-rollers than you do now (but without having to bet any less than on them than you do now).

If you are serious about that, then take my challenge…keep a simple +1/-1 count of all the randomly-tossed PL-wins and PL-losses for three or more laps around the table.

Chances are you’re going to see a lowly –1 count when you are done; then honestly compare that to how much you usually lose on average to the random-rollers during the same number of laps.

Then make yourself a promise, to at least consider changing up the way you currently handle your random-rollers bets.

You can still wager the exact same amount of money on them, and you can still feel like you are part of the game when they are shooting; but now you can expect to lose much, much less than you have been up until now...and frankly that's a huge step when it comes to turning the game more in your favor when you finally get the dice into your positive-expectation advantage-play hands.




As always,


Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.


The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2008