Mis-Estimation of Edge vs. Over-Estimation of Edge
You would think these two terms are interchangeable, but they’re not.
It goes without saying that some team members will have results that are sharply below that of other team members and far below general expectation.
I’m not just talking about one or two sessions where one or two shooters are temporarily ‘off’ of their game; rather I’m talking about shooters whose skill-level is either far, far below the norm for the group or where a shooter's edge on certain highly-touted wagers is not properly validated.
In many cases a shooter may have gotten on the team by simple virtue of having one or two long but possibly lucky hands in front of a bunch of dice-influencers.
For example, let’s say “Nelson” attended a group-weekend and he managed to throw a 90-roll hand as well as a 40-roll hand during a total of thirty-hours of play.
The 90-roll mega-hand would not only be the headline-grabber of the weekend, but Nelson would almost surely be invited to participate as a team-member when thoughts turned to putting together an investor-backed group.
The logic would go something like, “Come on guys, he threw a 90-roll hand three weeks ago, how can we NOT have him on the team.?!”
So Nelson gets a bye onto the team but his two much-ballyhooed hands turn out to be a never-to-be repeated lucky phenomenon, and his day-to-day shooting turns out to be nothing more than nearly indistinguishable from random.
Unfortunately his shooting not only erodes the net-winnings of the otherwise fairly talented group, but his addition to the group means that whatever little profit remains (after subtracting his steady losses); is divided and further fragmented by one additional body.
Sooner rather than later, the other team members will start to get frustrated to the point of distraction.
A player who steadily produces sub-par results creates severe internal stress for everyone.
Over the long-term, sub-par (non-advantaged) D-I results are usually the result of a severe over-estimation of advantage.
On the other hand, mis-estimation of advantage is something completely different.
Let’s say that “Jill” has a good solid toss and her results are clearly de-randomized to the point where anyone with a keen eye for such things, can see that she is clearly talented.
She not only performs well under pressure, but her disarming demeanor brings a relaxed state of focused anticipation to the table.
When asked how the Big-Bettor should wager on her, she reluctantly admits that she’s always done fairly well with Outside-number betting on the 4, 5, 9, and 10.
The rest of the group concurs, but also unanimously and forcefully suggests that betting heavily on the Horn if Jill throws two or more ‘junk’ numbers in a row is a sure-fire way to vault the team-bankroll into the ionosphere.
Based on that recommendation (which is accompanied by countless team-member anecdotes regaling Jill's skill at "hammering the Horn"); they proceed to the casino where Jill’s Outside-number shooting does not disappoint.
Unfortunately when the Investor (who has been tracking such things) reviews his notes for the past dozen or so sessions; he discovers that Jill’s apparent penchant for throwing strings of junk-numbers (and where he’s been faithfully following the group-directive to heavily bet the Horn); has in fact turned out to be more of a bankroll-hindrance than a bankroll-help…to the tune of diminishing their bankroll by almost the same amount as her prodigious Outside-number production has been earning.
Mis-estimation of a shooter's edge on certain highly-touted, but improperly-validated wagers is a sure path to reduced team-earnings and increased team-losses.
In Part Eight of this series, we’ll explore various ways to assemble a successful team, and how to keep it together.
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor Copyright © 2008