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Clandestine Clocking of Skilled Shooters - Part 5

The next shooter that I’ve been surreptitiously Foundation-Frequency tracking for a quite a while now, is Vic C. Vic uses the Crossed-Sixes (X-6) dice-set, and when I started tracking him he had already intuitively figured out that his biggest advantage (other than backing his PL-Points with the fullest Odds possible), is on the Field-bet.

Take a look at his in-casino F-F roll-stats:

Picture 13

*Please note again that the order I track F-F’s in is: PF…then DP…then SP, as opposed to PF, SP, then DP.



Picture 14

Obviously the HW or V-2 dice-set would give Vic a much, much higher advantage over the box-numbers. However, he vehemently refuses to budge from his current X-6 Field-bet strategy with a, “Don’t fix what ain’t broke” mind-set.

Vic plays in a gaming jurisdiction where three of the casinos offers
triple-pay 12’s on the Field-bet, and one place that only pays double-pay Field-12’s. Needless to say, Vic favors the stores that pay 3x on a Field-12 outcome.




Real-World Tracking = Real-World Opportunity



My betting on Vic C. is pretty straight-forward. I simply use a lower-value version of my
Table-Adaptable Field-Harvest, whereby I use a base-wager of $50 on the Field when Vic is shooting.

My Field-Harvest variant on him works like this:

~When Vic tosses a Field-bet
win I rack the entire payout…when it loses, I replace it.

~During any given session where Vic is shooting, I neither increase nor decrease my basic Field-bet. If I start with a $50 Field-bet on him; then I
finish with a $50 Field-bet on him.

~Vic’s current table-history strictly determines what level I put out on a particular table, though my standard Field-bet on him is $50.

~If his shooting stays
even with his current history at that table; then so does my betting-level.

~If his shooting
improves during this session; then on the next session at that same table, my starting-bet on the Field increases by a $25-increment.

~If his shooting
declines on that particular layout; then during my next session where Vic is shooting, I reduce my flat Field-bet on him by a $25-increment until that table reaches my $25 bet-minimum for this strategy.

~If Vic’s shooting fails to produce a net-profit from any given table over any three sessions in a row (for just that table); then I stop betting on him at that particular table...though my F-F tracking on him does continue.

~The net-profit results from his just completed hand, as well as how crowded the table is when he finishes that hand, as well as how close the dice are to
my own shooting-position, determines whether I stay for another lap around the table or whether I head out to another gaming-house.

~For the longest time, I wondered whether anyone else would be able to produce anywhere near as strong of a betting-threshold Field-advantage as I want before I'll use my
Table-Adaptive Field-Harvest strategy on them.

Admittedly, it took a lot of looking, and quite a number of false alarms (in terms of tracked-shooters whose small-sample F-F roll-stats looked promising, but ultimately didn’t hold up for more than a session or two). So when I noticed Vic’s Field-outcome regularity with the X-6 dice-set; I was hopeful, but still guarded in my enthusiasm.

Fortunately my F-F tracking-patience has paid-off in spades and continues to do so.

Surprisingly, in the hands of a modestly-skilled shooter, my
Table-Adaptive Field-Harvest strategy generates a lower degree of volatility than you might expect. More importantly though, the overall net-winnings of the T-A/F-H far outpace the off-putting distraction that a three or four-roll string of non-Field outcomes will occasionally produce, even in the hands of a skilled X-6 shooter.





How Much Table-Adaptive Field-Harvest Profit SHOULD Your Current Skills Likely Produce?


Let’s say that your currently validated SRR-rate is 1:7.

Using the appropriate dice-set, how much money should you reasonably expect the
Table-Adaptive Field-Harvest to generate on an average per-hand basis?

To find the answer to that, we first have to determine the source of your advantage.

If we already know we can influence the dice to some degree; then it’s simply a matter of matching the Foundation Frequencies of your
current toss (as established by BoneTracker/DiceTool) with the most appropriate Field-heavy dice-set.

The charts below will give you a rough idea of the kind of per-hand profit the
Table-Adaptive Field-Harvest can generate.

On a
triple-pay-12 table where the average Field-hit pays $5.94-for-each-$5.00 wager, and you use the Crossed-Sixes (X-6) dice-set; a dice-influencer can generally expect the following results based on his real-world SRR-rate:



Picture 17

On a double-pay-12 table where the average Field-hit pays $5.63-for-each-$5.00 wager, and you use the Crossed-Sixes (X-6) dice-set; a dice-influencer can generally expect the following results based on his real-world SRR-rate:



Picture 15



As always, it’s best to validate and verify your
Table-Adaptive Field-Harvest profit-potential against your actual in-casino roll-stat Foundation Frequencies.




In
Part Six of this series, we’re going to discuss both the obviously-overt and easily-evident tell-tale signs of a track-worthy shooter, as well as detecting some of the latent and not-so-blatant indications that a shooter may be more track-worthy than he or she initially appears. I hope you'll join me for that.


Until then,


Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.


The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2008

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on December 15, 2008 9:20 AM.

The previous post in this blog was Moving Into the Semi-Diagonal Grip.

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