In Part One of this series, which first appeared a couple of years ago, we talked about how I clandestinely track the Foundation Frequencies of other talented shooters (using my hiding-in-plain-sight Hands-of-the-Clock method); in order to get a solid handle of where the best money-making opportunity for my betting-dollars will likely be found the next time that same skilled-shooter has the dice.
Real-World Tracking = Real-World Opportunity
Let me give you an example of how this works. Here are the roll-stats for a guy who doesn’t usually play at the same times that I do; but when he's there when I am, the profit-potential is undeniable.
*Please note the order that I track FF’s in is: PF…then DP…then SP, as opposed to PF, SP, then DP.
Now I’ll be the first to tell you that 49-tosses does not constitute a statistically significant book of rolls, but then neither does basing your bet-decisions on what he just threw over his last two or three tosses either.
If you know how the dice are generally behaving when they are in the hands of someone who is trying to de-randomize the dice over a reasonable number of real-world trials (as measured by the correlation between his five Foundation Frequencies); then you can make a pretty educated guess on what he will likely produce over the next few hands too.
Obviously we aren’t talking about being able to accurately “call his shots” on a roll-by-roll basis. Instead, tracking a skilled-shooter's Foundation Frequencies, is a fairly accurate predictor of what outcomes we can generally expect from him.
Here is how EJ the DJ’s roll-stats stack up in DiceTool:
How I Bet on DiceTool-tracked Dice-Influencers
The first thing you’ll notice about my DiceTool betting-matrix is that I eliminate most of the superfluous high-vig wagers such as the Hardways and the World; but I leave in the Horn-bet just in case a strong statistical argument can be made for running a negative-progression on it (which is RARELY the case).
At first glance, we can see that our shooter, EJ the DJ, is a fairly good dice-tosser, and that he’s got a positive-edge on all of the box-numbers. On closer inspection, we see that his advantage on the Place-bet 6 and 8 far outstrips any Place-bets on the other four numbers combined by a wide +65% margin.
For me, this is a no-brainer. When EJ is shooting, I wait until he sets the PL-Point, and then I Place-bet the 6 and 8 for $30 each…and I keep those wagers in place (and at the same value) until he 7’s-Out.
If during subsequent roll-tracking over the next several hands, EJ’s edge over the 6 and 8 continues to be anywhere near as strong as it is right now; and as his book of rolls becomes a fair bit larger (thereby adding even more credence to the betting-regimen that I’ve already designated for his shooting); then I’ll increase my basic wager on the Place-bet 6 and 8 to $60 each when he shoots subsequent hands.
Likewise, if subsequent F-F roll-tracking indicates that his edge on those wagers seems to be waning; then I might cut my action on him back to the $18-each level.
Equally, if EJ's biggest-edge advantage shifts to another pair of twinned-numbers like the 5 and 9, or the 4 and 10; then I shift my bets off of the 6 and 8 and put it onto the now-stronger ones.
If during subsequent roll-tracking, DiceTool indicates that EJ’s edge on all of the box-numbers has disappeared completely; then so does my A-P-focused betting on him.
Thereafter, I’ll continue DiceTool-tracking his rolls, but I’ll treat his hands just like any another random-roller (meaning table-minimum PL or DP wagers).
If his advantage re-appears; then so will my A-P-focused betting. It’s as simple as that.
How I bet on DiceTool-tracked dice-influencers is almost entirely dependent upon where their recent-past edge is the strongest.
The size of each shooter’s toss-sampling (as measured by total number of Foundation Frequency-outcomes that I’ve tracked and entered into DiceTool), plus the actual edge that each skilled-shooter’s tosses produce; will dictate the value of my wagers on each of them.
In fact, when clandestinely clocking the Foundation Frequencies from as few as three or four hands of a skilled shooter, it is surprising at how often you'll discover betting opportunities that aren't even apparent to the shooter himself.
We’re going to delve much deeper into that part of this subject in Part Three. I hope you’ll join me for that.
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2008