The Dice Institute

When I have to bet on random-rollers in order to get the dice when they come around to me; I normally make a simple Pass or Don’t Pass wager. It’s low-vig, low-volatility, and low-cost.

Sure, you can try to catch a trend or ride an apparent hot or cold streak just like all the other gamblers at the table; but whatever money you might randomly make today, is almost always washed away by those same randomly-bet forces tomorrow.

That hope-to-catch-a-trend-so-I-can-rationalize-my-over-betting-on-random-rollers approach, pretty much assures that the casino will extract its pound of flesh from your bankroll…ounce by barely-noticeable ounce at a time.

Trading betting-dollars back and forth with the casino is what random gambling is all about, and it’s how their slow erosion of your bankroll enables the casino-corps to erect their modern towers of Babel.

The more money that you trade back and forth on random-outcomes, the sooner they’ll turn your money into their money.

Advantage-play betting is just the opposite of that.

The more information you have about the dice-influencer you are betting on; the more likely you are to make money off of his de-randomizing efforts.

Advantage-play is not about chasing trends and seeking hot or cold streaks; it’s about using validly obtained in-casino roll-stats to determine where your betting-dollars are likely to do the most good…and where they’ll extract the most profit.

Please notice that I didn’t say, “produce the most paying hits”. Most dice-influencers spread their money way too thinly over way too many numbers, and therefore short-change their D-I skills because their widely-spread wagers require far too many paying-hits to get anywhere within sniffing distance of a profit.

Rather, I said, “extract the most profit”. There’s a big difference, and when it comes to advantaged-betting; that distinction makes all the difference in the world in terms of how quickly you turn the casino's money into your money.


Clandestinely DiceTool-tracking the in-casino Foundation Frequencies of skilled shooters is where much of that bankroll-growing difference can often be easily found.


You may remember this next shooter from my Sweetest Roller This Side of Heaven article from back around 2002.


I have been tracking Zed’s in-casino F-F roll-stats for about three years now:

*Please note again that the order I track F-F’s in is: PF…then DP…then SP, as opposed to PF, SP, then DP.

Efficient Betting = Effective Profit


When it comes to making money off of positive-expectation wagers, the simplest approach is often the best approach.

The idea behind advantage-betting is to wager your money in an efficient a manner as possible, for it to effectively produce the most money, the most often.

I mean, what good is it if most of the profit produced by an occasional mega-win hand has to be used to replenish your bankroll because your standard-fare average-hand sub-optimal wagering has drawn it down to just a few scraps of remaining cash?

That is a terribly inefficient (and extremely frustrating) way to make money off of bets that are supposed to be ‘advantaged’, and it’s a prime example of where a skilled-shooter is relying on an occasional ‘lucky streak’ to get the job done, instead of relying on thoughtfully engaged most-likely-to-occur average-hand skilled-betting.

To my mind, the majority of the profit that you earn from an occasional mega-win hand should be used to boost and fatten your already-full bankroll, because your standard-fare average-hand wagering will have been growing and nourishing it all on its own.


Like I said, the simplest approach is most often the best approach when it comes to making money off of positive-expectation wagers.

Starting with a properly-sized wager on the skilled-shooter’s top two best-advantaged bets is the first place to start.

~If your advantaged-bets start out at a decent size-value (reflective of the shooter’s validated edge and the size of your total gaming-bankroll); then it shouldn’t take more than a paying-hit or two to break into the net-profit zone when he throws one of his run-of-the-mill standard-length hands.

~The simple fact is; the fewer advantage-bets that you wager on; the quicker you can reach a net-profit.

~The higher the shooter’s advantage on those selected wagers; the more often you will break into the profit zone.

Again, the principal idea behind advantage-betting is to wager your money in an efficient a manner as possible, so that it produces more profit, more often.

Admittedly, betting in that manner may cause you to endure a bit more volatility on the ultra-short P-S-O hands…and earn a little less on the mega-length long hands; but overall, especially when you consider your net-profit from all of that shooter’s hands (instead of just considering one or two mini-mammoth hands, while ignoring all the accumulated losses up until this point); means that you’ll have more net-profit to show for your betting-efforts than most other players who bet bigger…varied their bet-values on him more often…and often left much more money on the table than they collected in their rack, even when this dice-influencer does go on a shooting rampage.

In other words, if you gear your betting to the average-length hand-duration that he is most likely to produce over a reasonable number of trials; you’ll be collecting far more profit far more frequently than anyone else…including him.


How I Bet on Zed


Making money off of Zed’s tosses is as straight-forward as you can get. Let’s review where his D-I strengths are concentrated:

I look at Zed’s edge on the Buy-bet 4 and 10, and I see nothing but opportunity.

Sure, he’s got an edge on the other four box-numbers, but they come nowhere close to being comparable to his advantage over the 4 and 10…so I ignore those lower-grade opportunities and focus my betting-weight solely on his top two box-numbers.

Again, sometimes his tossing won’t be up to par, or his outcomes will not match up with my bets; but zigging and zagging, trying to catch lightning in a bottle is probably the second-most inefficient way to bet.

In any case (and every case when Zed is shooting); I start with a decently-sized Buy-bet on his best-advantage 4 and 10. Every time I collect five same-hand paying-hits from those wagers, I double their value.

~So for example, if my starting-bet value on Zed’s tossing is $50 each on the Buy-bet 4 and 10, and I collect a total of five paying-hits in the same hand from those wagers; then I double both of their bet-values to $100 each.

~If I am fortunate enough to collect five more paying-hits during the same hand from those $100 wagers; then I once again re-double them each to $200.

~I continue that double-after-five-paying-hits on my wagers process until Zed's hand ends.

~When the dice come around to Zed again, I re-start my wagering at the same previous starting point of $50 each on the 4 and 10, and then apply my double-after-every-five-paying-hits process over again.

Yes, many players would rather press...power-press...parlay...and then power-parlay hit after hit after hit; and they'll sometimes emerge with more net-profit that I do...but not often.

Why?

Because when viewed over multiple hands and multiple sessions; gearing your betting to what a skilled-shooter is likely to produce on-average most often, will see you collecting and KEEPING far more profit than almost anyone else who is betting on him...including the shooter himself.

Simple, solid, efficiency-focused validated-edge wagering = effective and steady session-after-session-after-session profits.

To my mind, that is what DiceTool-informed advantage-play betting is all about.



Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.


The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2008