« Clandestine Clocking of Skilled Shooters - Part 1 | Main | Clandestine Clocking of Skilled Shooters - Part 2 »

Clandestine Clocking of Skilled Shooters - Part Three

The lure of making money off of fellow dice-influencers is a strong one.

For most players, the uncertainty of how best to do it is equally strong.

When Stanford Wong first proposed the idea of trying to codify and cipher the de-randomization of my dice-tosses by way of a
Facial-Correlation model in place of the then-current On-Axis standard; I was quite intrigued.

Needless to say, the prospect of being able to wring out all of the potential from my D-I skills was something I definitely found appealing.

When we looked at the five Foundation Frequencies that encompass all 36 possible dice-outcomes, and how each toss-result has to fit into one (and
only one) of the F-F’s without any overlap between categories; we began to see profit-opportunities in places where others thought they could never exist.

For example, for users of the V-3 dice-set, we saw that some of the hereinbefore dreaded
One-Die Off-Axis outcomes actually helped to support and bolster the positive-edge on a number of On-Axis outcomes. This concept may seem rudimentary and elemental now; but back then, most everyone was a strict adherent of the “Everything-ON-Axis-is-GOOD-and-everything-OFF-Axis-is-BAD” school of understanding.

Developing DiceTool provided a quantum leap forward in terms of being able to discern a shooter’s full D-I advantage in a way that had never been imagined (or at least, never been comprehensively quantified) before.

The reason I even mention why the whole outmoded
”On-axis-good…Off-axis-bad” school-of-thought is a victim of its own limited thinking, as well as making follower’s of it the self-inflicted sufferers of severely limited profit-potential; is because the next clandestine DT-tracking player-case is a prime exemplar of it.




Real-World Tracking = Real-World Opportunity


Let’s take a look at another skilled-shooter whose in-casino rolls I’ve surreptitiously tracked for several weeks now.

Carpet-layer Mike (I call him that because he installs carpets and flooring for a living) has a seemingly disastrous 42% on-axis percentage; yet the profit-making opportunities that arise out of his Foundation Frequency correlation is undeniable.


Picture 20

*Please note again that the order I track F-F’s in is: PF…then DP…then SP, as opposed to PF, SP, then DP.



Now admittedly having an on-axis percentage as low as CL-Mike’s
42.1% O/A performance might make you think he’s a terrible shooter. On the contrary though, he’s got some excellent de-randomizing talents that can easily be exploited in a HUGE way.

Take a look:



Picture 21




Simple Buy-bets on the 4 and 10 offer a
huge advantage, and I don’t mind admitting that I put some fairly major dollars out there (on ONLY those two numbers) when CL-Mike is shooting.

As I mentioned previously, it goes without saying that a D-I will have a higher-advantage on an Odds-backed PL wager than he’ll have on a comparable Place-bet on the same number; however, as an advantage-player who wants to take the greatest advantage of his biggest-edge number, I want to be
absolutely sure that my money is going to be wagered on that specific number and it’s box-number twin. When CL-Mike is shooting, I do that by way of a major Buy-bet on the 4 and 10.

In this case, the only thing that would make it better, is if the casino that CL-Mike plays at would allow me to
Put-bet the 4 and 10 in order for the attendant free-Odds to do an even more efficient job of bringing in the loot. Unfortunately though, that particular casino does not allow Put-bets; however they only charge vig on Buy-bet wins, so the rake isn’t unbearable.




Optimal-Betting on DiceTool-tracked Shooters


In the clandestine DT-tracking case above, religiously sticking with the outmoded
”On-axis-good…Off-axis-bad” school-of-thought would see us heedlessly discarding the potential of this shooter simply because his On-axis percentage is 5.2% (and 2.3 basis-points) worse than random.


Different from random in either direction is profitably actionable.

When we limit our
thinking, we limit our potential. In dice-influencing advantage-play, limited thinking also means we unwittingly limit our profit.

~When we target a shooter and roll-track his Foundation Frequencies through DiceTool; we do so with a view to making money off of his dice-influencing skills.

~To get the
most out of those skills, we have to direct our wagers onto the bets where he has a demonstrated advantage regardless of which Foundation Frequency category helps to produce that edge…even if it is one of the ugly-but-exploitable OFF-axis categories.


In
Part Four, I’ll show you the roll-stats from two shooters whose skill-levels couldn’t be more different; yet they share very similar profit-potential profiles. I hope you’ll join me for that.


Until then,

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2008

Do you have questions or comments about the articles and subjects discussed here at the Dice Institute? Sign up for our member's forum and share them with us!

About

This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on December 3, 2008 10:14 AM.

The previous post in this blog was Clandestine Clocking of Skilled Shooters - Part 1.

The next post in this blog is Clandestine Clocking of Skilled Shooters - Part 2.

Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

Creative Commons License
This weblog is licensed under a Creative Commons License.
Powered by
Movable Type 3.34