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How an SRR-6.5 Shooter Can Double and Then Keep Re-Doubling his $1000 Bankroll…With Virtually No Risk-of-Ruin

I’m going to tell you something that is not only controversial, but it’s also something that almost no one here will believe…nevertheless, it remains true.

If you are a shooter with an SRR of around 6.5, you can Same-Bet Your Edge to Success.

When I say ‘same-bet’, I’m merely talking about making wagers of the same-value all of the time.

The only time you increase your bet is when your gaming bankroll doubles…and in that case, you double the bet-size value of that same set of wagers.

Now understandably, that idea is controversial because it flies in the face of conventional gambling wisdom that says you should always increase your bets when winning and always decrease your bets when losing.

It is also controversial because the whole idea of flat-betting (neither increasing nor decreasing your wagers during a given hand) has always been thought of as producing an overall zero-sum game (by having your wins cancel out your losses and vice versa).

However, for dice-influencers who play with at least a bit of an edge over the house, that outmoded fallacy couldn’t be further from the truth. Frankly though, when betting on random-rollers (if you have to bet on them at all); the old advice that you should increase your bets when winning and decrease your bets when losing; remains fairly solid.

However, when a dice-influencer plays with an edge over the house, that advice doesn’t always make sense.

Let’s look at a prime example where my Same-Bet Your Edge to Success idea does make tremendous financial sense.


 - Let’s say you have a very modest bankroll of $1000 to go along with your modest shooting-skills and you aren’t prepared to put out more than let’s say an average of $50 or so on your own validated skills at any one time.

 - Let’s also say that you are one of the many players who have a hard time disconnecting your anxiety from the amount of money that you sometimes have on the layout when you’ve pressed things up.

 - That is, during a nice hand where you’ve pressed-up your winning-bets like conventional wisdom says you should; the added stress of seeing that much of your own money on the table starts to mess with your shooting-concentration…and you subsequently 7-Out shortly thereafter due almost entirely to distracted focus.

If that sounds familiar to what happens to you during some of your own hands; then my Same-Bet Your Edge to Success concept is designed specifically for you.

Taking all of that “When should I press, when should I regress, when should I turn everything off?” stress out of the equation lets you focus on your de-randomized shooting…all the while your bankroll keeps growing at a very steady and predictable rate.


Now before you start thinking that I’ve given up recommending the use of Initial Steep Regressions (for properly bankrolled players), or that I’m recommending that you shouldn’t press your bets up if doing so doesn’t affect the “crap between your ears” or doesn’t affect your shooting-focus…I am not!

Instead, I’m simply telling you that if you have very modest shooting skills and an equally modest gaming-bankroll to go along with those limited dice-influencing abilities…and the anxiety of changing your mid-hand bets has a tendency to mess with your mind; then my Same-Bet Your Edge to Success concept can definitely solve all of those problems in a very persuasive and profitable way.

Now before you also start thinking about how many hits it is going to take for example for a multi-number global-bet to pay for itself before breaking through to an actual profit by using this same-bet method…you can stop right here.

My Same-Bet Your Edge to Success method is designed to essentially cover just one major bet only.

That’s right, I am talking about making simple Passline bets and backing them with simple Odds only…and that is all.

Yep, that’s right. There’s no Horn-bets, no Hopping Parlays, and not even any Place-bets involved. This method is for players with modest SRR’s in the 6.5 range and with very modest bankrolls.

If you are an SRR-6.5 shooter and you are making high-risk, high-erosion bets while using an insufficiently sized bankroll; then I can almost guarantee that your current D-I skills aren’t yet showing an overall net-profit…and they likely never will.

Sure, you’ll sometimes have outstanding sessions where you’ll walk with a profit; but I’m talking about the overall net-profit that your current shooting and current high-erosion bets DON’T produce.

If your shooting is in the SRR-6.5 range (6.3 to 6.7) and you are making those kinds of wagers; then an honest appraisal of where your overall net-profit stands will almost always show a net overall loss.

What I am saying is that it simply doesn’t have to be that way.

I am also saying that even with a very modest $1000 bankroll, you can double it...and keep on re-doubling it through simple PL w/Odds same-bet wagers.

With a modest SRR and an equally modest bankroll, frankly you can’t really afford to be betting on anything other than the Passline and backing it with Odds without putting undue strain and risk on your bankroll…and undue stress on your shooting-concentration.

Now as some of you roll your eyes at the simplicity and minimalism of my Same-Bet Your Edge to Success idea, let me quickly add that using this modest shooting-skill/modest gaming-bankroll method provides such an incredibly low-volatility, low risk-of-ruin way to double your bankroll with none of the bet-sizing anxiety normally associated with high starting-value bets like an ISR, that it also has the added benefit of eliminating all of the second-guessing apprehension and angst normally associated with pressed-up mid-hand bet-values.

So why should you listen to advice that you’d never hear from a certifiable dice-shooting instructor?

Well, because following this advice allows you to double your current bankroll with an incredibly low risk-of-ruin (where you’d lose the entire $1000 starting amount); and it allows you to keep doubling your starting bankroll without any increase in risk.

So that means, even if your SRR-rate never increases or never improves beyond the SRR-6.5 range; with my Same-Bet Your Edge to Success method, your bankroll can continue to double and re-double as long as you stick to the most basic of bets.

Now I’ll be the first to agree that any method that involves no pressing…no regressing…and no parlaying is not the most exciting betting approach ever devised…but like I said, it is the one that will allow you to double…and re-double your starting bankroll again and again and again with the lowest possible risk…and it simply involves making the same-sized PL w/Odds bet each and every time you shoot with your small advantage over the house.


So How Does It Work?
 - Let’s say you have a total bankroll of about $1000 and you normally play at $10 tables.

 - With an SRR of 6.5 at a casino that allows 10x-Odds, you will have about a 5% advantage over the house.

 - If you play in a 3x/4x/5x-Odds casino, your PL w/Odds wager will have about a 3.7% edge over the house.

 - That 3.7% advantage is comprised of a 1.75% edge when the PL-Point is a 4 or 10, a 3.2% edge when your Point is a 5 or 9, and a 6.2% advantage when your PL-Point is a 6 or 8.

 - In practical terms, let’s say that you play in the 3x/4x/5x-Odds casino; so when the dice are in your hands, your average bet will be $10 on the Passline and an average of $40 in Odds.

 - That is $30 in Odds when the PL-Point is a 4 or 10, $40 in Odds when the Point is a 5 or 9, and $50 in Odds when your PL-Point is a 6 or 8.

Now granted, an average wager of $50 in total 7-exposure bets on a $1000 bankroll is a little high when strictly viewed from a Kelly Criterion point of view; but since we aren’t exposing our money to the higher-volatility/higher-erosion of wagers where the house has an even bigger advantage, we’ll actually endure less of the whipsaw unpredictability that those other wagers saddle us with.

Admittedly though, there will still be small amount of win-some lose-some volatility even with such a mundane wager like a simple PL w/Odds bet, and this is where most neophyte shooters as well as an unexpectedly large number of veteran players misunderstand the math of the game as well as the mechanics of how modest D-I skills can produce consistent profits.

Let me explain:

 - A 1.75% advantage over a PL-Point of 4 or 10, means the SRR-6.5 shooter will generally fail to repeat his PL-Point about 63% of the time.

 - Now on the face of it, a 37% win-percentage when the PL-Point is 4 or 10 looks terrible. However, even with such a dismal-looking 37%-to-63% win/loss ratio, that modestly skilled dice-influencer still has an advantage over the house.

Here’s how:

 - Let’s say you make one-hundred PL w/Odds wagers when the Point is a 4 or 10.

 - Your $10 Passline wager with its $30 in Odds will win about 37% of the time and produce a $70 payout every time it does. That means it will produce revenue of $2590.

 - As discussed, with an SRR-rate of 6.5, that same bet may well lose 63% of the time and produce a $40 loss every time it does. That means it will cost you around $2520.

 - Overall that will produce a rather anemic looking 1.75% return on the total money wagered on this bet. I'll quickly add that most advantage-play blackjack counters would kill to have a steady 1.75% edge over the house, but most craps players find an edge like that way too easy to dismiss out of hand...which explains why most A-P craps players can't produce an overall profit even though their validated shooting indicates ungodly edges over the house.

I’ll also add that if you make that same play with 10x-Odds, your edge over the house jumps to 7.63%.

Granted, most players who endure a 63% failure-rate when their PL-Point is a 4 or 10 may not feel like they are playing a net-positive game, but that is exactly what they are playing, and if they have a very modest bankroll; then my Same-Bet Your Edge to Success method is the best way to double their current bankroll and to keep on doubling it even if their shooting never improves beyond the SRR-6.5 range.

Let’s take the PL-Point of 5 or 9 to illustrate this a little further:

 - A random-roller will likely repeat his PL-Point of 5 or 9 about 40% of the time.

 - Let’s say that our shooter hits it about 43% of the time. That means he’ll be 7’ing-Out before repeating it, about 57% of the time.

 - Again though, even with that 43%-to-57% imbalance between winning PL-Points and losing PL-Points on a 3x/4x/5x-Odds table, he’ll still produce a 3.2% return on his total PL w/Odds investment.

If he steps it up to 10x-Odds at a higher-Odds house; his edge climbs to 11.55%.

Take a similar look when the PL-Point is a 6 or 8:

 - A random-roller will likely repeat it about 45.5% of the time.

 - Let’s say that our shooter hits it about 49% of the time. That means he’ll be 7’ing-Out before repeating it, about 51% of the time.

 - Even with the 49%/51% imbalance between repeating and not repeating his PL-Points on a 3x/4x/5x-Odds table, he’ll produce a 6.2% return on his total PL w/Odds investment.

If he brings those exact same shooting skills to a 10x-Odds casino; his edge climbs to 6.91%.

Another way to look at all of this is that a 63% failure-rate on the 4 and 10, a 57% failure-rate on the 5 and 9, and a 51% failure-rate on the 6 and 8, would actually be a winning percentage and produce net-positive results.

Like I said though, most neophyte shooters as well as an unexpectedly large number of veteran players misunderstand the math of the game as well as the mechanics of how modest D-I skills can produce consistent profits…so they put their insufficiently financed wagers on what appear to be easier higher-risk/higher-reward pickings…only to find that when they look at their overall winnings…their bankroll is STILL firmly entrenched in negative territory.

Simply stated, when using my Same-Bet Your Edge to Success method, a shooter with an SRR-rate of 6.5 may still see a fair bit of win-some/lose-some variance from hand to hand and even session to session; so it means that he needs steel-nerved discipline in order to stay the course...but it also means that if he does stay the course, he can continue to use his modest skills to keep doubling and re-doubling his bankroll...with virtually no risk-of-ruin.

When players look at an SRR-6.5 and say, "Geez, I'd better improve my shooting skill if I ever want to make any real money off of this D-I thing"; it simply means that they don't know how to bet in an advantageous way.

Again, it's not their shooting-skill that is the problem...it's their betting-skill.

Good Luck and Good Skill at the tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor

Copyright © 2007-2008






 

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on December 8, 2008 3:17 AM.

The previous post in this blog was There’s a Big Difference between Really NEEDING a 20-Roll Hand or Merely WANTING a 20-Roll Hand.

The next post in this blog is Which is Better…a $20 Don’t Pass bet, or a $10 Passline bet Backed with $10 in Odds? Part - 1.

Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

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