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How Many Neg-Ex Random-Roller Wagers Can Your Current Pos-Ex D-I Skills Support?

Our old friend, (name withheld), asked:

"A skilled-shooter walks up to the table---gets his spot---he bets on twelve random-rollers during each lap around the table with $10 on the Passline {no Odds} and $12 each Place-bet on the 6 and 8.

The dice come around to him---as a dice-influencer, how big does his edge have to be to overcome what he’ll likely lose to R-R’s during an average lap, and how much does he have to bet to overcome that deficit?"

That's a good question, and one that not nearly enough skilled-shooters ask themselves.

I like sticking to the formula that is easiest to understand...easiest to apply...and easiest to get a handle on how much it takes for our D-I skills to overcome our R-R betting proclivities.

 - We know that the house-edge on the flat portion of a Passline bet is 1.41%.

 - We also know that the house-edge for a Place-bet on the 6 or 8 is 1.5%.

To determine the expected cost of such wagers when a random-roller is tossing the dice; we simply multiply the dollar-amounts of our wagers by the house-edge against the bet.

 - In this case, the $10 PL-wager incurs an expected-loss of 9.8-cents per shooter.

 - The two Place-bets of $12 each on the 6 and 8 incur an expected-loss of 36-cents per shooter.

 - So each shooter can be expected to cost our bettor about 46-cents.

That seems like a pretty darn reasonable amount, right. I mean, if you look at it as a cost of doing business when you are standing at the table waiting for the dice to come around; something like 50-cents a shooter doesn't seem like a bad price to pay, does it!?

Let's see what effect that has during a typical cycle:

 - During one lap around the table where our bettor wagers the same amount as set out above on each of twelve random-rollers; then he’ll incur an average expected-loss of about $5.52 per lap.

That still seems like a reasonably small amount of money to lose, on average, to a table full of random-rollers, doesn’t it?

But let’s find out how big his own D-I advantage has to be to overcome that average-lap deficit, and also find out how much he has to bet on himself in order to overcome that expected-loss.

 - Right now he is betting an average of $34 per random-roller.

 - With twelve R-R’s at the table we know that his cumulative negative-expectation wagers total $408.

 - We also know that there’s no way that this guy is going to bet anywhere near that amount on himself when the dice finally do come around to him.

 - Let’s say he is comfortable betting somewhere in the neighborhood of $100 on himself when he’s got the dice.

That is about three-times as much as he bets on any one random-roller, so he does at least recognize the difference between a pos-ex bet and a neg-ex one, and the fact that he should bet more on the good ones and less on the bad ones.

So what do we know?

We know that he needs to make up an average R-R bet deficit of around $5.52 per lap, and that he’s comfortable betting about $100 on himself when he is the shooter.

 - By dividing $5.52 into $100, we find that his own advantaged wagers will have to have a blended positive-advantage of about 5.5% to overcome his self-imposed expected R-R losses.

If our shooter's blended-edge advantage is less than that; then he'll usually come away with a loss...although not always...which is what keeps him coming back to try again and again and again.

He knows that there isn't anything wrong with his shooting; it's just that he always has such a hard time getting over the 'hump' and breaking into what he calls "real" profit. In his eyes, 'real' profit means a BIG win that will offset most or all of his small but pernicious losses.

The plain truth is that there isn't anything wrong with his shooting, though he can try to improve upon it until the cows come home. However, a much easier key to consistent winning can be found with just a slight reduction of his R-R bets.

Most dice-influencer's who know they have an edge, but haven't really quantified what their in-casino edge actually is, often fall victim to the hope (but not the likelihood) that their own shooting will bail their ass out from under their R-R-incurred losses. Sometimes it does...but only for a very short period of time; and then before they know it, they are right back on the negative side of the win/loss ledger.

Their losses have nothing to do with their shooting; it's their betting that is holding them back.

Let me give you an example that might really hit home with one or two of you.

Scenario #2
Let’s say that our skilled-shooter is more of an ‘action’ bettor, and he likes to cover a few more bases when the randies have the dice.

 - He bets $44-Inside on all twelve of them.

 - The Inside-bet carries a 2.6% blended house-edge against the entire value of the wager; which in this case equates to an expected-loss of -$1.14 per randie.

 - If he bets the same $44-Inside on all twelve random-rollers as he waits for the dice to cycle back around to him; he’ll likely incur an average expected-loss of -$13.73 for each lap.

 - Let’s say that his current shooting-skills gives him the same 5.5% edge as we mentioned above.

How much would he have to bet on his own good shooting in order for his D-I skills to overcome his expected random-roller losses?

Well, to determine that, we simply multiply his expected-loss of $13.73 by his 0.055 (5.5%) D-I blended-advantage skills-rate.

 - We find that he has to bet an average of $250 ($249.64 to be exact) on his own positive-edge advantaged shooting, just to make up for all his negative-edge random-roller betting when he doesn’t have the dice.

What This Means to You and Your Money
When we gain a clear understanding of how our neg-ex random bets are impacting our own pos-ex advantaged wagers; we can begin to appreciate WHY it is so difficult for most skilled-shooters to come out ahead, despite their outstanding D-I talents.

Determining how sizeable your own blended-advantage over the house is, is the easy part. So too is calculating how much all those random-bets are costing you during an average lap around the table.

The toughest part of knowing all that; is actually DOING something about it.

As always,

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor

Copyright © 2008

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on December 25, 2008 7:02 PM.

The previous post in this blog was Preparing for a Specific Opponent Part -2.

The next post in this blog is Things That Go Bump in the Night.

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