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There’s a Big Difference between Really NEEDING a 20-Roll Hand or Merely WANTING a 20-Roll Hand

Let me be blunt:

If you constantly find yourself needing a 20-roll hand to bail out your steady losses; then there’s something radically wrong with how you bet all those hands that are less than 20-rolls long.

First of all, we know that 20-roll hands don’t happen all that often.

For a randomly-thrown perspective:

  - Only 50% of the hands of random shooters have a median value of 6.96 rolls or more (and that means that the other 50% of those randomly-thrown hands will be less than 6.96 rolls from start to finish).

  - Only 5% of those randomly-tossed hands will be of 23.44 or more rolls.

  - Only 1% of all randomly-tossed hands are of a throw length of 34.95 or more rolls.

  - Only 0.49% of those hands ever get to 40 or more rolls. That means less than one-half of one-percent of all randomly-tossed hands last for 40 or more rolls.

  - Finally, only 0.12% of random hands last beyond 50 or more rolls.


Let’s put that into a dice-influencing perspective. For a well-skilled dice-influencer:

  - Only 50% of the hands of an adequately-skilled shooter have a median value of 7.30 rolls or more (and that means that the other 50% of those skillfully-thrown hands will be less than 7.30 rolls from start to finish).

  - Only 5% of those de-randomized hands will be of 24.92 or more rolls.

  - Only 1% of those dice-influenced hands are of throw length 37.23 or more rolls.

  - Only 0.70% of those hands ever get to 40 or more rolls.

  - Finally, only 0.19% of those hands last beyond 50 or more rolls. That means less than one-fifth of one-percent of these skillfully-tossed hands last for 50 or more rolls.


What Does That Mean for You and Your Betting-Dollars?
Well it means that the biggest and brightest money-making opportunities lay in the early, fattest, most frequently-occurring part of your hand…and since such a small number of your hands get to or go beyond the 20-roll mark; very little NET-profit will ever come from there.

While it’s true that the money that you make from those long hands can be used to bail out some of the losses that you incur during shorter hands; the real question is WHY do you incur so many losses on the hands that are less than stellar.

The answer is simple.

Your betting is not in synch with the hand-duration of what you are most likely to throw most frequently.

No wonder most guys have to use their long-hand winnings to bail out their shorter-hand losses. It’s not because of poor dice-influencing abilities; it’s because of poor bet-making decisions.

The Fat Part of the Point Cycle is fat because the bulk of your roll-duration resides near the front (start) of your point-cycle rather than at the back-end of it.

From the sublime to the ridiculous, that means you will have far more two-roll point-cycle hands than you will of 100-roll hands; and you will have far more p-c rolls that last 7 to 12 tosses than you will of the 30, 40, 50, or 60-toss variety.

Dice-influencing is a valid advantage-play concept that proves out quite easily; but you have to put your money where you have the edge.

Most dice-influencers understand that idea in abstract, but they don't apply it when it comes to actually putting their money where it will do the most good.

In this case, a strong argument can be made for the use of an Initial Steep Regression (ISR) that puts the bulk of your betting-weight on your strongest box-numbers at the beginning of your point-cycle (where your bets have the highest survival-rate).

Why do ISR's tend to work so well?

I'll use an SRR-7 shooter's point-cycle roll-duration to answer that.

  - 85.7% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 1 roll.

  - 73.5% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 2 rolls.

  - 63.0% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 3 rolls.

  - 54.0% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 4 rolls.

  - 46.3% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 5 rolls.

  - 39.7% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 6 rolls.

  - 34.0% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 7 rolls.

  - 29.2% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 8 rolls.

  - 25.0% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 9 rolls.

  - 21.4% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 10 rolls.

  - 18.4% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 11 rolls.

  - 15.8% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 12 rolls.

  - 13.5% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 13 rolls.

  - 11.6% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 14 rolls.

  - 9.9% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 15 rolls.

  - 8.5% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 16 rolls.

  - 7.3% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 17 rolls.

  - 6.3% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 18 rolls.

  - 5.4% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 19 rolls.

  - 4.6% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 20 rolls.

  - 3.9% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 21 rolls.

  - 3.4% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 22 rolls.

  - 2.9% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 23 rolls.

  - 2.5% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 24 rolls.

  - 2.1% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 25 rolls.

  - 1.8% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 26 rolls.

  - 1.6% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 27 rolls.

  - 1.3% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 28 rolls.

  - 1.1% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 29 rolls.

  - 0.98% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 30 rolls.

So, out of 100 hands, our SRR-7 shooter will get past his first point-cycle roll about 86% of the time...and only get past his 30th p-c roll without a 7 about 1% of the time.

The ISR asks,
"Where should the majority of our betting-weight be...on the first couple of p-c rolls where we know the majority (>50%) of our point-cycles will survive to...or should we bank on it getting to the 30th roll where only 1-in-100 will make it that far without a 7?"


If You Need a 20-Roll Hand to Make Money; Then Never Blame Your Losses on the Short-hands that SEEM to Take All Your Money

While short-hands may seem to be the cause of why you always end up needing those longer 20-roll hands; that isn’t the real underlying reason.

The simple truth is that if you can’t make fairly decent money off of the shorter average-duration hands, and you really need the long 20-roll ones to make any kind of money; then it is your betting that is really holding back your net-earnings, and not the overall lack of long hands (or the fact that you seem to throw 'too many' average-duration ones).

Think about it.

Have you ever read a string of trip reports where a group of guys will lament the fact that their shared session, though peppered liberally with a bunch of 12 to 15-roll hands, and a few Point-then-Seven-Outs,
Never really got things going because nobody could muster a decent 20-roll hand to put everyone into a profit position".

Well let me let you in on a little secret:

If you need a 20-roll hand to “get you over the hump”; then your sessions will almost always show a net-loss.

More over, your losses will almost always outpace your wins; but even when they don’t, your profit will almost never be enough to offset your previous losses.

Oh sure, you’ll REMEMBER all those winning sessions like they are the names of your grandchildren, and you’ll be able to instantly recall many of the facts during its countless retelling when you gather with friends; but again the truth is:

If you need a 20-roll hand to make money; then your losses will almost always outstrip your wins.

No matter how good you get at this dice-influencing thing that we do, you are always going to throw an occasional PSO (Point-then-7-Out). However, if you scratch just a bit below the surface; you’ll find that PSO’s ARE NOT the reason you need 20-roll hands to make a profit, nor is the preponderance of average-duration hands the reason either.

The reason for those losses can almost always be traced back to THE WAY you are currently structuring your bets.

If your wagers are set up in such a way as to require multiple presses or way too many paying-hits before they show a net-sessional profit; then you are going to be disappointed with your losses way more often than you’ll be elated by your wins.

Even though talented dice-influencers do indeed throw quite a few more 20-roll hands than we expect from random-rollers (to the tune of 1.76 times more frequently for an SRR-7 shooter, and 2.66 times more frequently for an SRR-8 shooters, and 3.65 times more frequently for an SRR-9 shooter); the fact is that 20-roll hands while seeming to be quite common, are not all that frequent when you put it into perspective of the average number of hands (of lesser duration) that occur between each incidence of those much sought after 20-roll hands.

…and if you are counting on random-rollers to save the day for you with one of their occasional 20-roll hands; then do yourself a favor…

Rip up your money into tiny little pieces and mail it into the casino.

That way, you’ll save the gas money of actually having to go there and losing it directly.

Likewise, if you try to rely on random-rollers to bail out your own off-day or off-session shooting; then it’s like putting your airline meal directly into the air-sickness bag. You are saving the hassle of going through a middle-man and the trouble of actually having to eat the meal.

A random-roller can sometimes serendipitously save your session; but most times it’s the major cause of a net-loss in the first place..and yet another chief reason why you need all those 20-roll hands in the first place.

Face it, you’re a little too old to believe in fairy tales, and you’re also a little too old to believe that you can turn a random-rollers neg-ex rolls into a reliable steady pos-ex payer OFTEN ENOUGH to make any money at it.

If you think otherwise; then you are living in a fantasy Dreamland, and merely deluding yourself.

The other reason that you'll often find yourself in need of 20-roll hands, is because your current betting is geared towards the long-hand end of the roll-duration spectrum. Again though, even in the hands of a talented shooter or a small group of talented shooters; those 20-roll hands don’t always occur frequently enough to show an OVERALL net-profit for the more-aggressive of bettors.

Oh sure, there will be times when you or other talented shooters DO string together a number of 20-roll hands in the same session; and those sessions will join the others that bear retelling when you gather over coffee or beer; but the reason they are so vividly recallable is because of their rareness of occurrence. I’m not saying that they don’t occur or that they don’t occur quite frequently; rather I’m just saying that they won't always occur often enough to continually bail your ass out of all the other losses you incur while waiting for those 20-roll hands to happen.

If on the other hand you DO throw more 20-roll hands than PSO’s; then fine, bet it up, but if you don’t; then don’t BET like you do!

It's with that particular greed factor that most players fall victim...not to bad shooting per se, but rather to bad betting that otherwise would be great-betting if they stopped to recognize the normal duration of their average hand...and played (and bet) to THAT advantage; instead of looking at too big of a picture while hoping, wishing, and praying this THIS hand COULD be THE ONE!

There's a ton of money that can be made off of each one of your 'normal' average-duration hands...and when you add each of them together; those profit-figures could far surpass the true NET-profit that you've ever made off of your mega-hands and mini-monsters...combined.

That's a lot of money to leave on the table...all the while hoping and praying that THIS HAND will be the world-beater you've been waiting for. That's not even close to what advantage-play betting is all about; but it sure goes a long way to explaining why just as much praying goes on in a casino as it does in a church.

As always,

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor

Copyright © 2008

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on December 8, 2008 3:09 AM.

The previous post in this blog was Clandestine Clocking of Skilled Shooters - Part 2.

The next post in this blog is How an SRR-6.5 Shooter Can Double and Then Keep Re-Doubling his $1000 Bankroll…With Virtually No Risk-of-Ruin.

Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

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