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Will Winning 50% of Your PL-Points Make You Rich…Stinking Rich…or Obscenely Wealthy?

Let’s keep this simple:


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Let’s say that you throw just as many Come-Out losers as you do Come-Out winners. So even though a Rightsider will typically throw eight (8) C-O winners for every three (3) C-O losers for a 72.7% winning-ratio versus a 27.3% losing-ratio on the Come-Out; we’ll say that this shooters 50/50 win/loss ratio is the same during the come-out as it is during his point-cycle.


So here’s the scenario:

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This shooter throws just as many Point-Cycle winners as he does Point-Cycle losers. That means he’ll repeat his PL-Point 50% of the time and he’ll 7-Out before repeating his PL-Point about 50% of the time too.


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We’ll also assume that he doesn’t make very many second PL-Point repeaters during the same hand, and they merely offer him a break-even proposition just like the Come-Out cycle does.


The question is:

If you could win 50% of your PL-Points, would that make you Rich…Stinking Rich…or Obscenely Wealthy?


Well, let’s find out.

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Let’s say that this 50% PL-winners/50% PL-losers shooter starts out with $10 bets on the Passline and backs it with full-Odds in a 3x/4x/5x-Odds casino.


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For simplicity then, we’ll say that he starts off with $10 Passline bets and backs them with an average of $40 in Odds ($30 when the PL-Point is a 4 or 10, $40 when it’s a 5 or 9, and $60 in Odds when the PL-Point is a 6 or 8)


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That means a PL-Point repeater will pay an average of $70 when it wins ($10 in flat-bet even-money payout from his PL-wager, and an average of $60 in Odds profit).


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It also means that he’ll lose $50 when he fails to repeat his PL-Point.


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On average then, he’ll produce a net-profit of $20 more when he wins than when he loses. In case you’re keeping track of such things; that is a 20% return on investment for this 50/50 shooter (he invests/wagers a total of $100 over each of two hands, and he produces a net-profit of $20), even though he is only winning one-half of his bets.


So again I ask, if you are able to win 50% of your PL-Points while losing the other 50%; would that make you
RichStinking Rich…or perhaps even Obscenely Wealthy?


Let’s find out:

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At a 20% return on investment (or 10% ROI per wagered hand); it would take him an average of just five (5) hands before he doubled the money required to double his base-bet from $10 on the Passline with full 3x/4x/5x-Odds. However, there would be quite a bit of back-and forth winning-and-losing volatility built into all of that; so let’s say he played ten (10) hands before doubling his bets. That way he’d be able to build up an ever-increasing financial reserve to weather any additional volatility should it ever occur.


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At the end of ten hands; he’d have made about $100 in net-profit; so we’ll let him go ahead and increase his base-bet to $20 as well as increasing his corresponding Odds. He’ll also have built up a $50 excess profit reserve that he can add to his overall bankroll.


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At the end of another ten hands, he’ll have made an average of about $140 per winning hand, and lost an average of $100 per losing hand…for a net-profit of $200.


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Let’s have him re-invest $100 of that $200 profit so he can ratchet up his bets to $30 on the Passline that are backed with an average of $120 in Odds. The excess profit of $100 can again be added to his overall bankroll.


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When he throws another ten hands, he’ll make around $210 when he wins and his loss will be around $150 when he loses; so we;ll have him re-invest another $100 to increase his PL-bets to $40 each and he can also increase his Odds by a similar amount.


He'll also have an excess profit of $200 that can be used to augment his overall bankroll...although frankly by this point he should be getting a little more aggressive in increasing his betting-levels


Notice that he’s
still making an overall 20% return on investment even as his stakes rise.


Winning 50% of your PL-Points and losing the other half, means that the power of the Odds-bet becomes the difference between making a meaningful profit…or merely breaking-even and trading dollars back and forth with the casino.


It also means the difference between making you Rich…Stinking Rich…or even Obscenely Wealthy.


Let’s jump ahead because you know exactly what’s going to happen when this shooter doubles, re-doubles, then triples, then quadruples, then quintuples his base PL-bet with it’s corresponding Odds.


So let’s get him to the point when his base-bet on the PL is $500 and he plays in stores where $2000 in Odds, though uncommon, is not extraordinary to the point of raising pit-heat to an unbearable level.


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Okay, the flat PL-portion of his wagers is now $500 and he backs it with an average of $2000 in Odds.


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That means when he wins, he’ll be making an average of $3500; and when he loses, his loss per hand will be around $2500…for a net average profit of $500 per hand.


Over two hands where $2500 is wagered on each (for a total investment of $5000); he’ll produce an average net profit of $1000…and his 20% R.O.I. remains rock-steady no matter how
high or how low his playing stakes are…and as long as his 50/50 win-some/lose-some win/loss ratio stays the same…so will his return-on-investment.


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For each ten additional hands that this player throws; he’ll be garnering an additional $5000 in net-profit. Even a mere hundred (100) hands per week will rake in an average of $50,000/week.


Now obviously you aren’t going to get
obscenely wealthy off of making $50k/per-week; but it can make you somewhat rich if you are willing to take your D-I show on the road and spread your play all around the world.


Here’s something to ask yourself:


All other things being equal,
if you can win about 50% of your PL-Points; then why isn’t your money growing anywhere near what it could be?


If your shooting isn’t holding you back; then it must be something else in your decision-making process that is.



As always,


Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.



The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2007

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on December 18, 2008 12:50 AM.

The previous post in this blog was Clandestine Clocking of Skilled Shooters - Part Six.

The next post in this blog is If Repeating 50% of Your PL-Points Can Double and Then Keep Re-Doubling Your Bankroll; then How Much Hand-to-Hand VARIANCE Should You Expect Along the Way?.

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