Our good friend, Irishsetter, brought up an excellent point the other day. He posited that most shooters would benefit greatly if they spent less time analyzing small-sample roll-stats, and more time crafting and fine-tuning their shooting-skills.
I can’t say that I disagree with him.
In fact, he knows, as I do; that most aspiring dice-influencers practice far too infrequently, and far too briefly ; yet they seek to derive all kinds of insight from under-sized roll-sample collections that may not provide the kind of meaningful insight they are looking for.
In their defense however, it’s important to note that many are coming from a background where they’ve been taught to vary their bets on virtually a roll-by-roll basis (“I just rolled a 4, so parlay that and add the 5…I just rolled a Horn, so bet on the Hardways…I just rolled an 8, so press the 6, 8, 9, and 10…I just rolled a Hard-10, so Hop the 4, 5, and 9”) background.
In that case, you can’t really blame them for looking at a roll-sampling of 72 or 144 tosses and thinking that it’s big enough to make at least some of their wager-decisions, especially in light of the fact that they’ve been using a one, two, or three-roll sample-size to base most of their previous bet-decisions on.
I mean a 72-roll sample is 25x bigger than a 3-roll sample; so that’s not only a big step forward for many players, but for quite a few fellow D-I citizens, it’s also a long-needed audacious step in the right direction that I think should be lauded and praised.
Admittedly, much-larger near-recent roll-samples greater than a hundred or so tosses are definitely needed, as is the overarching need for even more practice-session fine-tuning; but to my mind, every forward-step that our board-members make, is one step further away from faulty outmoded thinking and obsolete bet-choice processes.
Passion and Perseverance May Yield More Than Sheer Talent
However, in addition to gathering an even bigger on-going sampling of hard-data from practice-session stats; I think it is important to develop and then maintain a winning attitude towards all of the work that we put into our still-developing de-randomizing efforts.
That basic winning-attitude axiom holds to be as true for all of the time we spend practicing, as it does for our actual in-casino time. Now that may sound counter-intuitive, as many of my advantage-play approaches do; but it’s more than a hypothesis...and it proves itself out quite nicely and very profitably in the end, as you will see.
In other words, passion and perseverance may be more important to turn whatever talents you have into tangible profit; but that will only show itself through relentless practice and focused analysis.
What I'm saying is that you may not know how talented you really are, nor may you ever become fully aware of how close you are to reaching a toss-consistency break-thru, if you don't have the passion and perseverance to look for it and then properly exploit it.
Even more gratifying than just finding it and starting to optimally exploit it though, is that you’ll likely discover that you can actually generate far more net-profit than that made by shooters with greater sheer talent…but who lack the passion, determination and perseverance to wring maximal profitability out of their current talents like you do.
I’ve written about this extensively in the past, but I still maintain, that in a world of instant “I-want-every-toss-to-generate-a-payout” gratification; grit, maturity, and determination may yield the biggest, steadiest, and most consistent payoff of all.
Admittedly, perseverance and determination has come to seem like quaint lip service against the tide of interest in pure talent, where hard-work and practice-until-you-puke is regarded more as a punch-line to a joke than it is a serious route to accomplishment and achievement.
Yet the grit, perseverance, and determination that you put into your practice-sessions at home, may turn out to be at least as good a gauge of future in-casino success as innate talent itself. The simple truth about dice-influencing is that the more grit and determination you have; the more likely you are to achieve success.
The more passion and commitment you put into your dice-influencing efforts, the better prepared you’ll be to endure the inevitable setbacks that occur in any long-term undertaking. My sense of it is that it's not just talent that matters, but also character.
Think about Irishsetter’s catchphrase about dice-influencing: “If it was easy, everyone would be doing it”. It’s as true today as it was when he first used it on his original D-I site back in, what 1999?
The thing is, it does take a ton of hard work and practice to become highly successful in this endeavour of ours, and anyone who tells you otherwise is full of shit. It’s not easy, and it’s not for everyone.
I hate to say it, but we’ve become a society of instant-gratification, easy-fix, bandaid-solution, ultra-short attention-span junkies. If an answer to a complex question can’t fit onto a bumper-sticker; then we move on to something that will…even if it isn’t the right answer.
Developing your dice-influencing talents to a level of repeatable consistency is hard work, and it takes a ton of practice...including on-going practice to maintain that consistency once you've developed it.
So too, it takes careful inspection of what your roll-stats are trying to tell you. If you are too stubborn to listen, or too lazy to even look; then your talents are mostly wasted, and your profits will remain disappointingly small.
In Part Two, we’re going to look at ways that you can further develop and then apply a winning attitude that helps foster and facilitate a consistently winning toss.
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
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