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Are Your Bet-Selections and Dice-Set Choices Based on Fact, Fiction, or Just Wishful Thinking?

It’s been said that the political party that you first vote for, is almost always the party that you continue vote for, for life. And even when you may not always fully agree with them; your mind will find ways to rationalize their shortcomings, while at the same time demonizing everything the other party is doing, even if your brain's executive functions of the frontal lobes (and maybe even parts of your heart), know that they aren’t as bad as your inductive reasoning really wishes them to be...and that your guys aren't nearly as good as you'd hope them to be.

The same often holds true for dice-influencers who settle on one dice-set very early on in their D-I pursuits, and can never quite find the nerve or sheer audacity to switch over to another roll-stat-validated dice-set with a conviction that would ultimately redeem and benefit their skills.

This reluctance holds
especially true if it means having to switch over from one axial-model to another (like switching from a V-2, V-3, or X-6 to a S-6, P-6, or HW-set) for your point-cycle shooting.

Many players hold onto outmoded, out-dated, and completely out-of-touch ideas, not because there aren’t better ideas out there; but rather, because they are so ego-invested in one obsolete and largely discredited methodology; that they can’t bear to permit themselves to even
consider the possibility that a better way may exist.

The same goes for betting-methods.

Early on, many players become comfortable with a given multi-number global-bet (like Inside, Outside, Across, Even, Iron-Cross, etc); yet they can't tell you how much of an actual edge they have over that particular wager, or if another betting-approach could potentially produce a far better rate-of-return on their wagering-investments.

Oh, they'll
tell you that their approach works pretty good, but they really have no idea whatsoever what their actual ROI (return-on-investment) is...or what effect even the most rudimentary re-jigging of their bet-arrangements would have...nor what a slight re-distribution of the betting-weight on some numbers over others, would have on their net-profits.

In other words, most of their bet-decisions are based on hunches, superstitions, gambler's fallacies, and well-worn anecdotes that often include the words,
"Well I once hit nineteen 5's in one hand back in 1972, and even though I've never replicated anything close to that since then, I still bet that way just in case I do".

The same often applies to their selection of dice-sets.

What works for one shooter may not work for someone else, even if they are lifelong friends that have shared everything from ex-girlfriends to lawn equipment.

Just because one guy does well with a mutant permutation of some dice-set...and even if that set becomes the set-du-jour across multiple message-boards; it doesn't mean that it will do well for
you.

To make dice-influencing really work, a player has to figure out
how and in what ways the dice are being influenced by that particular player's set, grip, and toss. Thankfully we have BoneTracker w/DiceTool to do all the grunt work of calculating that and determining our individual true edge when measured against various dice-sets and various bets.

If you want to take the analysis process even
further than BoneTracker w/DiceTool; you can, but frankly if you can’t find an edge with B-T w/D-T; then you really should be spending much less time looking at each one of the 576 “permutations of permutations” starting-sets (which are, after all, just variations within the six basic dice-set families)…and much more time on the actual practice-rig, developing an honest-to-goodness de-randomized toss.

Getting to the money in dice-influencing is fairly simple:

Develop a good basic toss…practice that toss-dynamic until it becomes so unstoppably consistent they'll have a hard time closely your coffin when you are dead...select a dice-set from BoneTracker w/DiceTool that gives you the highest edge over a narrow range of box-numbers…bet your money on those wagers where you have the highest sustainable edge…suck it up and endure the toss-to-toss and hand-to-hand volatility…lather...rinse...repeat.

That's how you get the most money out of all the effort you put into your dice-influencing efforts; however, you have to understand that it might require a dice-set or bet-choice change to get there...so you have to be somewhat open-minded to
allow yourself to reach your full potential.

Yes, getting to the money in dice-influencing
is fairly simple, but many players make it unnecessarily hard on themselves...and some make it virtually impossible despite their clearly evident skills.

Many of you guys would be surprised at the sheer amount of reluctance that many very talented shooters exhibit when it comes to putting their money where their highest, most persuasive advantage over the house really is.

Even when confronted with real and compelling validated evidence that they could make substantially more money than they presently do if they made some simple changes to their current betting-approach; they are extremely reluctant to do so, even to the point of being truculent...and insisting that they simply will not change their betting, regardless of the fact that "staying the course" often means a
continuation of their money-losing ways.

The same applies to dice-sets.

When confronted with real and compelling long-term validated in-casino roll-evidence that they could make substantially more money than they are currently making if they simply changed dice-sets to one that most closely matches their
Foundation Frequencies with the wager-outcomes that they are so desperately trying to produce; they are reluctant to the point of being quarrelsome and fractious in defending their continued use of a dice-set that delivers far-from-optimal returns for the skill that they frustratingly know they have...but can't seem to make much money from.

Happily though, some players are able and willing to change their dice-sets and betting-methods to more closely suit their current pattern of influence; and for them,
the opportunities are nearly boundless.

So if your current profit seems to be lagging far behind your current validated potential; just ask yourself
if your Bet-Selections and Dice-Set Choices are based on Fact, Fiction, or plain old Wishful Thinking?



As always,


Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2009

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on February 3, 2009 5:26 PM.

The previous post in this blog was A Winning Toss Requires a Winning Attitude - Part Three.

The next post in this blog is Can You Fool Your Bankroll into THINKING and ACTING Like It Is Bigger? - Part Four.

Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

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